Tonight the Seminoles take on the Hilltoppers from Western Kentucky.
Many of you may be saying WK Who? Here's a not so subtle reminder on who they are. This is a must win game for a ton of reasons. Take a look inside for the game preview and game thread.
N.B. Despite some periods of poor focus, the Noles pulled away at the end to defeat WKU, an elite 8 team from last year, 82-69. We only turned the ball over 9 times and showed flashes of briliance on offense. Take a look inside for the game thread and preview. As always, thanks to everyone who contributed. The ACC season is just around the corner. We're getting better...ACC watch out.
| Offense | Defense | |||||||||||||
| Date | Opponent | Result | Site | Pace | Eff. | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR | Eff. | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR |
| Sat Nov 15 | Jacksonville (s) (sr) | W, 59-57 | A | 69 | 85.6 | 52.4 | 26.1 | 18.8 | 73.2 | 82.7 | 36.0 | 16.0 | 33.3 | 26.5 |
| Tue Nov 18 | La Salle (s) (sr) | W, 65-61 | A | 71 | 92.0 | 45.8 | 25.5 | 26.9 | 58.3 | 86.3 | 40.0 | 19.8 | 31.5 | 30.0 |
| Thu Nov 20 | Stetson (s) (sr) | W, 79-77 | H | 73 | 108.3 | 45.5 | 23.3 | 46.1 | 60.7 | 105.6 | 53.1 | 19.2 | 33.3 | 20.0 |
| Sat Nov 22 | Coastal Carolina (s) (sr) | W, 82-70 | H | 71 | 116.0 | 56.7 | 21.2 | 32.8 | 50.0 | 99.0 | 51.8 | 31.1 | 37.5 | 30.9 |
| Mon Nov 24 | Western Illinois (s) (sr) | W, 67-55 | H | 62 | 108.6 | 48.0 | 19.4 | 36.5 | 44.0 | 89.1 | 40.9 | 21.1 | 21.0 | 47.7 |
| Fri Nov 28 | Cincinnati (s) (sr) | W, 58-47 | N | 64 | 90.7 | 42.0 | 28.1 | 43.2 | 50.0 | 73.5 | 36.1 | 29.7 | 40.5 | 31.5 |
| Sat Nov 29 | California (s) (sr) | W, 80-77 | N | 78 | 102.7 | 55.2 | 23.1 | 25.6 | 70.8 | 98.8 | 44.1 | 16.7 | 20.8 | 54.2 |
| Wed Dec 3 | Northwestern (s) (sr) | L, 73-59 | A | 69 | 86.0 | 47.1 | 30.6 | 33.9 | 37.3 | 106.4 | 49.1 | 18.9 | 42.9 | 55.4 |
| Sun Dec 7 | Florida (s) (sr) | W, 57-55 | H | 64 | 88.8 | 37.3 | 21.8 | 38.9 | 51.0 | 85.7 | 43.1 | 24.9 | 31.3 | 33.3 |
| Sat Dec 13 | Georgia St. (s) (sr) | W, 62-57 | A | 54 | 114.1 | 64.5 | 27.6 | 44.2 | 50.0 | 104.9 | 44.3 | 12.9 | 32.8 | 28.3 |
| Tue Dec 16 | Tennessee Tech (s) (sr) | W, 69-59 | H | 75 | 92.3 | 53.9 | 32.1 | 34.5 | 39.2 | 78.9 | 41.7 | 29.4 | 33.3 | 28.3 |
| Thu Dec 18 | Charleston Southern (s) (sr) | W, 71-48 | H | 66 | 107.0 | 49.2 | 19.6 | 45.2 | 35.5 | 72.4 | 39.3 | 28.6 | 35.9 | 19.6 |
| Sun Dec 21 | Pittsburgh (s) (sr) | L, 56-48 | H | 67 | 71.8 | 34.0 | 26.9 | 27.8 | 46.8 | 83.8 | 38.1 | 22.4 | 38.1 | 20.6 |
| Sun Dec 28 | Western Kentucky (s) (sr) | W, 82-69 | h | 65 | 127.0 | 54.1 | 13.9 | 40.0 | 34.4 | 106.9 | 50.0 | 23.2 | 44.7 | 25.9 |
That turnover number is excellent! Our defensive rebounding? Horrible. By far the best of the year.
Last year the, Hilltoppers surprised everyone, winning the Sun Belt Conference and earning a 12 seed in the NCAA tournament. They went 29-7 overall and 16-2 in conference play. They ranked 55th in the nation in offense and 69 in defense and finished 59th overall in the Pomeroy Ratings. Not only did they have a great regular season they made a run in the NCAA tournament, earning a trip to the elite 8, ruining many brackets including mine. They lost to UCLA 88-78 in that game.
So why is this such an essential game for the Noles? After coming off a very close game against an elite Pitt team, this could be a win that helps the Noles get a second look by the NCAA Tournament Committee in March. But WKU isn't as good as they were last year, so why does it matter TC? Even though they may not be off to a good a start as they had last year, they are a "relatively" big name in tournament speak and this would be a big out of conference win.
In the loss to Pitt, we showed we could play with the best in the country, but our inexperience, terrible shooting and turnovers let it slip away at the end. The game was much closer than the final score. We shut them down, holding Pitt to some of their worst numbers of the year. Their Seniors took over the game in the final minutes, proving why they are one of the best teams in the country. But, I think the game opened a lot of people's eyes to FSU and has put us on the radar. We demonstrated some improvement and the trajectory of this team's development is still positive. The Pitt coached provided us with much praise after the game, saying we were the best defense they have played this year. Unfortunately, this is kind of a backhanded compliment based on who they have played this year. Still, we should be excited about the direction the season is going.
Let's take a look at the Hilltoppers and see how we're going to match up.
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 102.2 (138) 101.6 (194)
Adj Efficiency : 107.7 ( 76) 103.5 (215)
Effective FG% : 49.7 (131) 48.2 (142)
Turnover Pct. : 21.1 (175) 19.1 (270)
Off. Rebound% : 31.9 (216) 33.2 (168)
Free Throw Rate: 23.2 (201) 30.9 ( 77)
3-Point FG% : 39.2 ( 34) 33.9 (170)
2-Point FG% : 44.8 (260) 46.8 (132)
Free Throw Pct.: 72.0 ( 77) 69.6 (211)
Block Pct. : 6.2 ( 47) 9.3 (134)
Steal Pct. : 10.4 (217) 8.0 (286)
3PA/FGA : 35.2 (111) 34.0 (215)
A/FGM : 53.7 (175) 62.4 (311)
WKU plays a low tempo game and shoot the ball particularly well from the 3-point line. This is what helped them get through the tournament last year. In fact they shot 38.9% as a team last year from downtown and had a couple of guys shooting over 40% on the year. Tyrone Brazelton was their scorer but he graduated. (Darn) This year, the Hilltoppers are down in most of their stat catergories compared to last year, espescially their FG%. They are not getting it done with the midrange jump shot. They are also trying to rely on the three. 35% of their shots are from downtown. This is about par for the course for college teams this year and represents a significant increase in the past 15 years or so.
So what happened? Why the drop off? They graduated a number of their starters. Here are their indivdiual stats for the year so far.The individual numbers not in a stat column are the player's national ranking.
No Player Ht Wt Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss %Shots eFG% OR% DR% FTRate
20 Orlando Mendez-Valdez 6-1 185 Sr 10 77.8 358 109.6 19.2 21.0 52.2 3.3 9.1 16.3
30 Steffphon Pettigrew 6-5 225 So 10 70.8 95.8 20.1 23.6 44.7 6.0 14.6 21.3
40 Jeremy Evans 6-9 190 Jr 10 68.3 123.4 99 14.9 15.6 58.3 183 9.5 443 12.4 38.3
4 A.J. Slaughter 6-3 180 Jr 8 66.3 111.6 473 24.8 381 26.3 365 51.5 1.7 9.9 40.8 451
1 Sergio Kerusch 6-5 210 So 10 62.3 94.7 25.7 286 29.1 165 43.6 9.9 380 22.8 83 31.4
2 Anthony Sally 6-2 185 Jr 10 57.3 73.7 22.3 12.7 36.6 2.0 11.0 82.9
35 D.J. Magley 6-9 255 So 10 32.5 91.7 17.7 15.8 48.3 8.7 11.7 24.1
23 Mike Walker 6-7 220 Sr 9 27.0 73.8 14.0 9.9 40.0 11.5 15.1 20.0
11 Dejan Cvoro 6-5 185 Fr 5 14.0 86.1 18.4 15.2 50.0 4.0 5.8 16.7
33 Uros Komadinic 6-6 210 Fr 6 12.8 104.7 18.1 19.5 71.4 6.6 10.7 0.0
41 Matt Maresca 6-8 225 Sr 7 11.3 136.2 10.6 9.5 66.7 10.0 14.5 16.7
Best 96.4 149.7 37.8 39.0 76.7 25.2 35.0 100.0 100th Best 85.5 123.4 28.5 30.5 61.0 13.2 22.0 66.1 500th Best 74.5 111.0 23.9 24.8 52.5 9.0 16.2 39.2
2-point 3-point
No Player Ht Wt Yr ARate TORate %Blocks %Stls FTM-FTA Pct FGM-FGA Pct FGM-FGA Pct
20 Orlando Mendez-Valdez 6-1 185 Sr 22.2 391 18.0 1.0 1.0 12-15 .800 15-30 .500 22-62 .355
30 Steffphon Pettigrew 6-5 225 So 4.5 15.7 1.5 2.3 15-20 .750 21-63 .333 14-31 .452
40 Jeremy Evans 6-9 190 Jr 5.5 11.7 152 7.1 90 1.3 17-23 .739 35-59 .593 0-1 .000
4 A.J. Slaughter 6-3 180 Jr 24.1 307 13.6 304 0.4 2.9 403 28-40 .700 25-56 .446 17-42 .405
1 Sergio Kerusch 6-5 210 So 1.9 14.0 338 0.0 1.2 21-32 .656 37-82 .451 5-20 .250
2 Anthony Sally 6-2 185 Jr 22.6 368 39.7 0.0 2.1 23-34 .676 9-29 .310 4-12 .333
35 D.J. Magley 6-9 255 So 7.9 28.6 5.8 0.9 6-7 .857 14-29 .483 0-0 .000
23 Mike Walker 6-7 220 Sr 5.1 39.3 0.0 0.6 2-3 .667 6-14 .429 0-1 .000
11 Dejan Cvoro 6-5 185 Fr 20.4 34.8 0.0 1.1 1-2 .500 0-3 .000 4-9 .444
33 Uros Komadinic 6-6 210 Fr 4.3 32.2 2.1 1.2 0-0 .000 1-1 .999 6-13 .462
41 Matt Maresca 6-8 225 Sr 21.8 12.5 0.0 1.3 0-1 .000 4-5 .800 0-1 .000
Best 46.2 2.5 19.8 7.8
100th Best 30.9 10.7 6.7 4.1
500th Best 19.7 15.5 2.6 2.7
AJ Slaughter and Sergio Kerusch are their primary ball handlers in that they have the most percentage of possesion and have a high percentage of their team's shots. Kerusch's numbers a likely from his rebounding ability and getting the ball around the basket. They're pretty good at hanging onto the ball. They turn the ball over about12-13% of their possesions. Compare this to our ball handlers (see below). We have a ways to go.
Once again, we are bigger then our opponent. But this is a highly athletic team. Check out this video from their dunk contest this year: Western Kentucky Dunk Contest. Their average minutes weighted height is 6'4" and ranks 122 in the country. Our average height is 6'7. Where they miss out is at the PF position, lets hope that Reid can re-emerge after his relatively quiet game against Pitt, granted he had the difficult match up with DeJuan Blair.
Here is their likely starting line up:
Sergio Kerusch 6'5 210 G/F So 11 ppg 7.4 rpg This is their primary rebounder. Accounting for about 9.9% of their offensive rebounding opportunities and 22% of their defensive rebound opportunities. Anything over 10 is good.
Steffphon Pettigrew 6'5 225 G/F So 9 ppg 5.3 rpg Role player who shoots the ball well from the three point line.
Jeremy Evans 6'9 190 F Jr 8ppg 5.4 rpg 1.8 bpg Evans is their most effective offensive playe and is active in all elements of the game.
A.J. Slaughter 6'3 180 G Jr 16 ppg 3.5 apg 1.6 spg This is their version of Toney Douglas. Scores. Distributes and steals. Active at both ends of the court and limits his mistakes with the ball.
Orlando Mendez-Valdez 6'1 185 G Sr 10.8 ppg 3.3 apg Plays the most minutes. Has a good assist to turnover ratio.
They are a relatively experienced team that plays a slower pace, like Pitt, and hangs on to the ball. This game will have a smilar feel to the Pitt game, except for the fact that WKU's offense is no where near as good and their defense is not so hot. I am encouraged that they don't force a lot of turnovers.
Here is how they have done against their competition this far. Take note of how their TO% has been increasing in the past few games. Look for Douglas to have a big night.
| Offense | Defense | |||||||||||||
| Date | Opponent | Result | Site | Pace | Eff. | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR | Eff. | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR |
| Sat Nov 15 | Houston (s) (sr) | L, 73-64 | A | 65 | 98.3 | 50.9 | 30.7 | 40.6 | 12.5 | 112.1 | 45.8 | 13.8 | 38.1 | 38.3 |
| Tue Nov 18 | Campbellsville (s) (sr) | W, 62-48 | H | 64 | 97.3 | 42.1 | 17.3 | 41.7 | 25.4 | 75.3 | 41.4 | 28.3 | 26.4 | 11.5 |
| Sat Nov 22 | Murray St. (s) (sr) | L, 89-61 | A | 72 | 84.8 | 44.3 | 19.5 | 20.7 | 43.4 | 123.7 | 60.9 | 20.9 | 26.0 | 41.8 |
| Wed Nov 26 | Southern Illinois (s) (sr) | W, 79-70 | H | 70 | 113.5 | 55.8 | 15.8 | 27.0 | 61.5 | 100.5 | 52.9 | 24.4 | 25.4 | 34.6 |
| Sun Nov 30 | Louisville (s) (sr) | W, 68-54 | N | 69 | 98.4 | 44.6 | 18.8 | 30.6 | 41.1 | 78.1 | 32.1 | 15.9 | 22.9 | 50.0 |
| Tue Dec 2 | Georgia (s) (sr) | W, 67-63 | H | 68 | 98.9 | 39.5 | 13.3 | 31.8 | 43.5 | 93.0 | 43.9 | 20.7 | 43.2 | 18.5 |
| Sat Dec 6 | Tulane (s) (sr) | W, 82-67 | A | 63 | 130.8 | 68.6 | 23.9 | 50.0 | 29.4 | 106.9 | 48.5 | 14.4 | 37.8 | 16.9 |
| Sat Dec 13 | Evansville (s) (sr) | L, 72-40 | A | 67 | 59.9 | 32.5 | 24.0 | 20.9 | 3.3 | 107.8 | 54.5 | 18.0 | 34.5 | 28.6 |
| Thu Dec 18 | South Alabama (s) (sr) | W, 69-66 | A | 63 | 109.2 | 54.5 | 22.1 | 36.5 | 16.1 | 104.4 | 50.9 | 23.7 | 43.5 | 24.6 |
| Sun Dec 21 | Alabama A&M (s) (sr) | W, 83-60 | H | 67 | 124.3 | 61.1 | 22.5 | 41.9 | 42.6 | 89.9 | 45.5 | 19.5 | 25.0 | 29.1 |
Here's a reminder of where we stand:
| Offense | Defense | |||||||||||||
| Date | Opponent | Result | Site | Pace | Eff. | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR | Eff. | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR |
| Sat Nov 15 | Jacksonville (s) (sr) | W, 59-57 | A | 69 | 85.6 | 52.4 | 26.1 | 18.8 | 73.2 | 82.7 | 36.0 | 16.0 | 33.3 | 26.5 |
| Tue Nov 18 | La Salle (s) (sr) | W, 65-61 | A | 71 | 92.0 | 45.8 | 25.5 | 26.9 | 58.3 | 86.3 | 40.0 | 19.8 | 31.5 | 30.0 |
| Thu Nov 20 | Stetson (s) (sr) | W, 79-77 | H | 73 | 108.3 | 45.5 | 23.3 | 46.1 | 60.7 | 105.6 | 53.1 | 19.2 | 33.3 | 20.0 |
| Sat Nov 22 | Coastal Carolina (s) (sr) | W, 82-70 | H | 71 | 116.0 | 56.7 | 21.2 | 32.8 | 50.0 | 99.0 | 51.8 | 31.1 | 37.5 | 30.9 |
| Mon Nov 24 | Western Illinois (s) (sr) | W, 67-55 | H | 62 | 108.6 | 48.0 | 19.4 | 36.5 | 44.0 | 89.1 | 40.9 | 21.1 | 21.0 | 47.7 |
| Fri Nov 28 | Cincinnati (s) (sr) | W, 58-47 | N | 64 | 90.7 | 42.0 | 28.1 | 43.2 | 50.0 | 73.5 | 36.1 | 29.7 | 40.5 | 31.5 |
| Sat Nov 29 | California (s) (sr) | W, 80-77 | N | 78 | 102.7 | 55.2 | 23.1 | 25.6 | 70.8 | 98.8 | 44.1 | 16.7 | 20.8 | 54.2 |
| Wed Dec 3 | Northwestern (s) (sr) | L, 73-59 | A | 69 | 86.0 | 47.1 | 30.6 | 33.9 | 37.3 | 106.4 | 49.1 | 18.9 | 42.9 | 55.4 |
| Sun Dec 7 | Florida (s) (sr) | W, 57-55 | H | 64 | 88.8 | 37.3 | 21.8 | 38.9 | 51.0 | 85.7 | 43.1 | 24.9 | 31.3 | 33.3 |
| Sat Dec 13 | Georgia St. (s) (sr) | W, 62-57 | A | 54 | 114.1 | 64.5 | 27.6 | 44.2 | 50.0 | 104.9 | 44.3 | 12.9 | 32.8 | 28.3 |
| Tue Dec 16 | Tennessee Tech (s) (sr) | W, 69-59 | H | 75 | 92.3 | 53.9 | 32.1 | 34.5 | 39.2 | 78.9 | 41.7 | 29.4 | 33.3 | 28.3 |
| Thu Dec 18 | Charleston Southern (s) (sr) | W, 71-48 | H | 66 | 107.0 | 49.2 | 19.6 | 45.2 | 35.5 | 72.4 | 39.3 | 28.6 | 35.9 | 19.6 |
| Sun Dec 21 | Pittsburgh (s) (sr) | L, 56-48 | H | 67 | 71.8 | 34.0 | 26.9 | 27.8 | 46.8 | 83.8 | 38.1 | 22.4 | 38.1 | 20.6 |
Note the difference in strength of schedule so far this year. We have played a relatively tough OOC schedule, particularly in light of what we have a head in the ACC.The thing to note is that despite having our worst eFG% of the year, one of our higher TO% and low OR% and FTR...we hung in that game against Pitt. Note the difference in FTR.
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 97.4 (220) 89.6 ( 38)
Adj Efficiency : 97.5 (213) 86.3 ( 22)
Effective FG% : 48.3 (183) 42.9 ( 26)
Turnover Pct. : 25.1 (307) 22.5 (112)
Off. Rebound% : 35.3 (107) 33.5 (181)
Free Throw Rate: 36.1 ( 7) 32.3 (100)
3-Point FG% : 34.6 (147) 32.6 (124)
2-Point FG% : 46.5 (212) 39.3 ( 12)
Free Throw Pct.: 71.3 ( 98) 64.2 ( 51)
Block Pct. : 6.5 ( 62) 17.9 ( 8)
Steal Pct. : 10.3 (208) 11.9 ( 54)
3PA/FGA : 32.7 (183) 37.1 (284)
A/FGM : 53.8 (172) 48.2 ( 56)
More green on the right than the left. And shades of red are starting to creep into that left column that weren't there before. That turnover percentage is terrible. We shoot the ball relatively well, but we don't get up that many shots due to our turnovers. We would likely score in the upper 70s every game if we didn't make so many mistakes.
There are some things in the individual stats that really stand out. Douglas is taking a huge percentage of our shots, almost 30%. This has to slow down. Alabi and Echefu are doing a fantastic job on the defensive glass, but could be better on the offensive boards. Alabi is a block machine, ranking 22nd in the nation in Block%. He needs to be more involved in the game and Toney Douglas needs a break more often. Many of you have asked about Hamilton's rotations. They're not great and a lot of guys are getting long periods of play. However, this will catch up with us. Currently our bench plays 30% of possible game time minutes, mostly in the form of Loucks and Echefu. We need more Kitchen. Singleton continues to shoot the ball well, particularly from the three point line, making 43% of his shots from deep. I'm excited that he can shoot the three but he needs to develop his inside/slash game more. Watch this kid develop, he will be fantastic and I wouldn't be surprised to see him playing regular minutes with an NBA team in the future; he still has a bit of development to do and he needs increase his strength.
Pomeroy has us having a 78% chance of winning this game. He hasn't be wrong so far this year and lets hope that trend continues in this game. I think it will once again be a low scoring affair with us pulling away at the end. We will continue to see the sloppy turnovers resulting from inexperienced players in a relatively loose offensive system.
The game is being played in Sunrise, FL so it's a semi-home game. The game will be televised on FSN-FL. We'll get radio link up once the game starts.
As a final note...the Noles lead the series against WKU 6-0. Let's make it 7-0 in an important out of conference match up.
Thoughts?
Go NOLES!
I'll have a post up in the next few days discussiing zone defenses and how the Noles may or may not benefit from settling into one.