My general impression from posts here and elsewhere is that people are enthusiastic about Christian Ponder.  But by FSU standards, the numbers don't seem to support this enthusiasm.  So can someone tell me what is so great about Ponder?

(This post should be a nice contrast to the Kool-Aid I offered in the Jermaine Thomas/Warrick Dunn comparison.  It's also unlikely to be ripped-off by Fearthespear.com)

Long-time followers of Seminole pigskin will recognize one undeniable fact:  We get more 'W's with 'W's.  That is, we've won more games with Willis, Weldon, Ward, Weinke and Weatherford than with any 5 non-W quarterbacks.  (I'd love to see someone check the numbers on this.)  All the 'W's (except Drew) had 10 or more wins in a season.  So when P-O-N-D-E-R becomes W-O-N-D-E-R, I'll look forward to 10 wins and an ACC championship.  Unfortunately, he has yet to show any resemblance to the W-inners of the previous decades.

In what follows, I argue that Ponder is mediocre by FSU (and perhaps any) standards.  My analysis of Ponder goes both vertical (comparing Ponder with other FSU signal callers in the last 20 years) and horizontal (comparison with 2008 ACC QBs).  In either comparison, Ponder comes out average or worse.  It is true that he compares well with fellow ACC signal-callers, but given the mediocre talent among ACC QBs, all that follows is that Ponder is above-average among mediocre colleagues.  This may be obvious to some, but others may be like me -- optimistic prior to careful study of the numbers.

VERTICAL COMPARISON

The following charts show how Ponder compares to other (selected) successful Seminole QBs.  Quarterbacks were selected by no scientific procedure.  Mostly, they had gobs of passing yards.  I simply took 12 (apparently) good years of FSU QB performance and compared them using various metrics.  This may be a very bad way to do a comparison, but it's good (and interesting) enough for a Fanpost.

Pass Efficiency Rating

Quarterback/YR.	Pass Eff.	Pass Yds.	Tot. Yds.	TDs	Int.	Pass Att.	Comp.
Rix 2001	168.02	2734	3123	27	13	286	165
Weinke 2000	161.20	4167	4070	34	11	431	266
Ward 1993	160.60	3032	3371	31	13	380	264
Willis 1989	149.97	3124	3094	22	9	346	211
Busby 1997	147.38	3317	3301	27	10	390	235
Weldon 1991	145.48	2527	2497	22	8	313	189
Kanell 1995	144.66	2957	2916	32	13	402	257
Weinke 1999	142.70	3103	2994	25	14	377	232
Ward  1992	138.98	2647	3151	28	17	365	204
Kanell 1994	136.06	2781	2654	18	13	380	264
Ponder 2008	126.17	2006	2429	18	13	318	177
Weatherford 2005	120.79	3208	3180	21	18	469	276

Pass Efficiency = [ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ].  This is the NCAA formula as far as I know. 

Quarterback Score Per Play (QBSPP)

Quarterback/YR.	QBSPP*	Plays	Int.	Total yds
Weinke 2000	5.1	461	11	4070
Willis 1989	4.5	377	9	3094
Rix 2001	4.1	385	13	3123
Busby 1997	3.7	447	10	3301
Ward 1993	3.7	445	13	3371
Weldon 1991	3.4	351	8	2497
Weinke 1999	3.3	408	14	2994
Kanell 1995	3	421	13	2916
Ward  1992	2.7	465	17	3151
Kanell 1994	2.6	407	13	2654
Weatherford 2005	1.9	536	18	3180
Ponder 2008	1.7	437	13	2429
AVG.	3.3	428.33	12.67	3065.00

Quarterback score = (total yards-(3*total plays)-(30*turnovers))
QBSPP = Quarterback score/total plays
*I didn't have time to dig up the numbers on fumbles, so turnovers=interceptions.
For more on QBSPP, you can view Statistical Thinking in Sports, by Albert and Koning here.  QBSPP is, I suppose, primarily an NFL metric.  If you don't think it's a good metric for NCAA football, help me out by explaining why.

Yards Per Play (passing and rushing)

Weinke 2000	8.83
Willis 1989	8.21
Rix 2001	8.11
Ward 1993	7.58
Busby 1997	7.38
Weinke 1999	7.34
Weldon 1991	7.11
Kanell 1995	6.93
Ward  1992	6.78
Kanell 1994	6.52
Weatherford 2005	5.93
Ponder 2008	5.56

Total Offense per Game

Quarterback/YR.	Tot Off/Gm
Weinke 2000	339.17
Ward 1993	306.45
Busby 1997	300.09
Ward  1992	286.45
Rix 2001	283.91
Weinke 1999	272.18
Kanell 1995	265.09
Willis 1989	257.83
Weatherford 2005	244.62
Kanell 1994	241.27
Weldon 1991	208.08
Ponder 2008	186.85
AVG.	266.00

Conclusions from Vertical Analysis

What can we conclude from this?  We can reasonably claim that Ponder doesn't stack up well to our best passers, historically.  I suppose this should temper our expectations about the passing game in 2009, but not necessarily about wins.  One huge difference between these QBs from the good (and not so good) ol' days and Ponder is that in the good ol' days, we were pass first, run second.  Perhaps Ponder can function as a care-taker QB in the model of Trent Dilfer (a very mobile Dilfer), assuming our defense is up to par. 

One interesting note is that while Weatherford, who won 8 games in 1995, is near the bottom along with Ponder in virtually all the above charts, Rix 2001, who also won just 8 games, comes in near the top in almost all of them.  Why is this?  We could blame it on the defense in 2001, who allowed 26.1 points per game.  This number is almost 10 pts. above the average for the group, which is 17 points per game allowed.  That is, all of the other QBs listed had a much better-performing defense backing them up.  The best performance was, of course, the 1993 D which allowed 9.4 ppg.  Last year, Ponder's defense allowed 20.2 ppg.

At the end of the day, these numbers concern me.  None of the 10-win teams I looked at had a QB with a QBSPP lower than 2.5.  I suspect that no 10-win FSU team in the last 20 years has had a QB with numbers like Ponder's.  Unless Jermaine Thomas fulfills my prediction of a 1,000-yard season, we could be looking at 8 or fewer wins.  Not only that, but even if Ponder cranks up his QBSPP to 3.0 or better, it will be in vain unless our defense can hold down opponents' scoring.  Rix had a QBSPP of 4.1 in 2001, but the defense couldn't keep up.

HORIZONTAL COMPARISON

How does Ponder stack up to other ACC QBs based on 2008 stats? (These stats are from College Football Stats.)

Yards Per Game:  #8

	Name	Team	Yr	Pos	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	Int	TD	Rating	Att/G	Yards/G
1	Cullen Harper	Clemson	SR	QB	13	360	221	61.4	2601	7.2	14	13	126.22	27.7	200.1
2	Thaddeus Lewis	Duke	JR	QB	11	361	224	62.0	2171	6.0	6	15	122.96	32.8	197.4
3	Chris Turner	Maryland	JR	QB	13	374	214	57.2	2516	6.7	11	13	119.32	28.8	193.5
4	Marc Verica	Virginia	SO	QB	11	354	226	63.8	2037	5.8	16	8	110.59	32.2	185.2
5	Riley Skinner	Wk Forest	JR	QB	13	363	232	63.9	2347	6.5	7	13	126.18	27.9	180.5
6	Russell Wilson	NC State	FR	QB	12	275	150	54.5	1955	7.1	1	17	133.94	22.9	162.9
7	Chris Crane	BC	SR	QB	11	307	169	55.0	1721	5.6	13	10	104.42	27.9	156.5
8	Christian Ponder	FSU	SO	QB	13	318	177	55.7	2006	6.3	13	14	115.00	24.5	154.3
9	Robert Marve	Miami (Fl)	FR	QB	11	213	116	54.5	1293	6.1	13	9	107.18	19.4	117.5
10	Jacory Harris	Miami (Fl)	FR	QB	13	194	118	60.8	1195	6.2	7	12	125.76	14.9	91.9

QB Rating: #6

	Name	Team	Yr	Pos	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	Int	TD	Rating	Att/G	Yards/G
1	Russell Wilson	NC State	FR	QB	12	275	150	54.5	1955	7.1	1	17	133.94	22.9	162.9
2	Cullen Harper	Clemson	SR	QB	13	360	221	61.4	2601	7.2	14	13	126.22	27.7	200.1
3	Riley Skinner	Wk Forest	JR	QB	13	363	232	63.9	2347	6.5	7	13	126.18	27.9	180.5
4	Thaddeus Lewis	Duke	JR	QB	11	361	224	62.0	2171	6.0	6	15	122.96	32.8	197.4
5	Chris Turner	Maryland	JR	QB	13	374	214	57.2	2516	6.7	11	13	119.32	28.8	193.5
6	Christian Ponder	FSU	SO	QB	13	318	177	55.7	2006	6.3	13	14	115.00	24.5	154.3
7	Marc Verica	Virginia	SO	QB	11	354	226	63.8	2037	5.8	16	8	110.59	32.2	185.2
8	Robert Marve	Miami (Fl)	FR	QB	11	213	116	54.5	1293	6.1	13	9	107.18	19.4	117.5
9	Chris Crane	BC	SR	QB	11	307	169	55.0	1721	5.6	13	10	104.42	27.9	156.5

Yards Per Attempt: #5 (not too bad)

	Name	Team	Yr	Pos	G	Att	Comp	Pct.	Yards	Yards/Att	Int	TD	Rating	Att/G	Yards/G
1	Cullen Harper	Clemson	SR	QB	13	360	221	61.4	2601	7.2	14	13	126.22	27.7	200.1
2	Russell Wilson	NC State	FR	QB	12	275	150	54.5	1955	7.1	1	17	133.94	22.9	162.9
3	Chris Turner	Maryland	JR	QB	13	374	214	57.2	2516	6.7	11	13	119.32	28.8	193.5
4	Riley Skinner	Wk Forest	JR	QB	13	363	232	63.9	2347	6.5	7	13	126.18	27.9	180.5
5	Christian Ponder	FSU	SO	QB	13	318	177	55.7	2006	6.3	13	14	115.00	24.5	154.3
6	Robert Marve	Miami (Fl)	FR	QB	11	213	116	54.5	1293	6.1	13	9	107.18	19.4	117.5
7	Thaddeus Lewis	Duke	JR	QB	11	361	224	62.0	2171	6.0	6	15	122.96	32.8	197.4
8	Marc Verica	Virginia	SO	QB	11	354	226	63.8	2037	5.8	16	8	110.59	32.2	185.2
9	Chris Crane	BC	SR	QB	11	307	169	55.0	1721	5.6	13	10	104.42	27.9	156.5

Total Offense Per Game: #5

	Name	Team	Yr	Pos	G	Rush Yards	Pass Yards	Plays	Total Yards	Yards/Play	Yards/G
1	Thaddeus Lewis	Duke	JR	QB	11	96	2171	430	2267	5.3	206.1
2	Russell Wilson	NC State	FR	QB	12	388	1955	391	2343	6.0	195.3
3	Riley Skinner	Wk Forest	JR	QB	13	144	2347	467	2491	5.3	191.6
4	Cullen Harper	Clemson	SR	QB	13	-140	2601	414	2461	5.9	189.3
5	Christian Ponder	FSU	SO	QB	13	423	2006	437	2429	5.6	186.8
6	Chris Turner	Maryland	JR	QB	13	-154	2516	417	2362	5.7	181.7
7	Marc Verica	Virginia	SO	QB	11	-71	2037	386	1966	5.1	178.7
8	Chris Crane	BC	SR	QB	11	225	1721	388	1946	5.0	176.9
9	Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	SO	QB	12	738	1036	320	1774	5.5	147.8
10	Josh Nesbitt	Ga Tech	SO	QB	11	693	808	295	1501	5.1	136.5

(I didn't have room for the chart, but if you adjust the above numbers to "Total Offense Per Game vs. Winning Teams Only," Ponder drops to #7.)  Interesting note:  in both the Big 10 and SEC, five passers would have finished ahead of Lewis in Total Offense per game; in the Big 12, eleven QBs did better than Lewis.  Even in the PAC-10 and Big East, 3 passers outperformed our best on this metric.

Rush Yards per Game among Running QBs: #3

	Name	Team	Yr	Pos	G	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD	Att/G	Yards/G
1	Josh Nesbitt	Ga Tech	SO	QB	11	172	693	4.03	7	15.64	63
2	Tyrod Taylor	Va Tech	SO	QB	12	147	738	5.02	7	12.25	61.5
3	Christian Ponder	FSU	SO	QB	13	119	423	3.55	4	9.15	32.54
4	Russell Wilson	NC State	FR	QB	12	116	388	3.34	4	9.67	32.33
5	Chris Crane	BC	SR	QB	11	81	225	2.78	7	7.36	20.45

I'll give Ponder a thumbs-up on this comparison, but it's a stretch to think that 32.54 YPG is significant in terms of winning games. 

Finally, what about QBSPP among other ACC quarterbacks?  Ponder comes in at #7 with a QBSPP of 1.67.  The top score of 2.92 went to Russell Wilson.

Conclusions from Horizontal Analysis

Clearly Ponder compares better with other ACC QBS than he does with the FSU hall of fame, and this is no shock.  But this may be due to mediocre quarterback play all around in the ACC.  If so, then Ponder is just slightly above-average in a mediocre conference.

Some may argue that defenses in the ACC are better-than-average, which brings down QB numbers.  If so, then this reflects better on Ponder.  But I'm not sure I buy this line of argument.  It seems very reasonable to think that the ACC is populated with average QBs.  Here's one reason why:  Matt Ryan.  If QB mediocrity in the ACC was due to tough defensive play, then Ryan shouldn’t have had numbers too far beyond those of his counterparts.  But Ryan blew the competition away.  Ryan amassed 4507 total yards and 321.9 YPG in 2007.  Cullen Harper came in second place with 2991 total yards and 230.1 YPG.  It seems reasonable to conclude that Ryan was an elite QB in a crowd of unremarkable QBs.  In 2008, the ACC had no elite QBs.

Top quarterbacks in other conferences had numbers (in 2008) far beyond those of their ACC counterparts.  E.g., Colt McCoy had a QBSPP of 4.35, Mark Sanchez a 3.99, and Tebow (peace be upon him) had an eye-popping 4.71.  (Note:  Tebow was 4th in passing yards per game in the SEC.)   My suspicion is that they would do just fine against ACC defenses.  For instance, Tebow was able to match his season average of 7.2 yards per play against us last year; Stafford eclipsed his season avg. of 8 ypp against Tech with an impressive 9.1 ypp and almost 400 yds. passing; and John Parker Wilson beat his season avg. of 5.7 ypp with 5.9 against Clemson.  (Anyone have numbers on how other elite QBs performed vs. ACC?)

Final Conclusions

Ponder is mediocre, by FSU (or any other) standards.  If we are going to return to 10-win seasons and contenting regularly for the National Championship, then it won't be with Ponder-as-he-is or as-he-was-in-2008.  In my amateur opinion, Ponder needs to be more efficient.  If he can improve (1) average yards per rush attempt; and (2) average yards per completion, each by a full yard, we will win more games than we did last year.  Both (1) and (2), but especially (1), should be helped significantly by a more experienced O-line this year (fewer sacks -- Ponder was sacked 19 times last year).  But I will remain skeptical about our future until Ponder starts to resemble the QBs of old -- not in terms of yards, but at least in terms of efficiency.  It will be interesting to see Ponder's numbers after the first few games.

If Ponder can improve his efficiency and lead us to an ACC Championship this year, then I will be the first to move that we change his name from Ponder to Wonder.

Here are my questions for you:

1. Should we be excited about Ponder in 2009?
2. If yes, then why? (Are there any metrics that make Ponder look better?)
3. Why should we think that ACC defenses are tougher than those in other conferences?
4. How can Jimbo help Ponder to improve efficiency?