Recovering a fumble appears to be a stochastic process (i.e., a random event). This has been analyzed many times and the conclusion remains the same. Consider this excellent excerpt from Pro Football Prospectus 2005 (New Orleans chapter) and listed on the Football Outsiders basics page:
Stripping the ball is a skill. Holding onto the ball is a skill. Pouncing on the ball as it is bouncing all over the place is not a skill. There is no correlation whatsoever between the percentage of fumbles recovered by a team in one year and the percentage they recover in the next year. The odds of recovery are based solely on the type of play involved, not the teams or any of their players.
Note that forced fumbles (FF) aren't exactly a stochastic process: "Stripping the ball is a skill." FF can be the result of physical, violent play where the offensive player is roughly separated from the ball:
FF can also be the result of intentionally stripping the ball out of the offensive player's hands. In a 1-on-1 setting, this can be risky as the ballcarrier may coast on by your tackleflying headbutt.
Stripping the ball is best employed (i.e., lowest risk of breakaway from a missed strip) in a gang-tackling situation.(1:21 mark)
Of course, down+back+kick-button can also produce desired results.
Everyone knows that turnovers can over/underrate a defense. But FF turns out to be quite important. How important? A 2007 study on NFL teams (Advanced NFL Stats) showed that FF demonstrated a strong correlation to team wins and defensive points allowed.
So what defenses are helping to liberate the pigskin? Let's take a look at FF in the college ranks from 2006 to 2010. More after the jump.
Team forced fumbles (FF) since 2006.
Team
FF.06
FF.07
FF.08
FF.09
FF.10
FF.Avg
1
Texas
21
14
16
16
20
17.4
2
Missouri
17
23
16
13
15
16.8
3
Iowa State
11
15
21
20
16
16.6
4
Oklahoma
13
12
20
17
17
15.8
5
Oregon State
18
15
15
15
15
15.6
6
Georgia Tech
12
18
13
16
17
15.2
7
Purdue
22
14
9
14
17
15.2
8
Buffalo
11
16
25
12
11
15.0
9
New Mexico
15
10
16
16
18
15.0
10
USC
12
20
9
19
15
15.0
11
East Carolina
13
19
15
19
8
14.8
12
Hawai'i
19
14
15
10
16
14.8
13
Southern Mississippi
12
13
16
21
12
14.8
14
Virginia Tech
15
11
20
13
14
14.6
15
Kentucky
25
12
17
8
10
14.4
16
LSU
13
15
14
10
20
14.4
17
San Jose State
19
11
11
19
12
14.4
18
Temple
12
14
15
16
15
14.4
19
Kent State
18
10
12
18
13
14.2
20
Middle Tennessee
18
15
12
16
9
14.0
21
Navy
12
8
17
15
18
14.0
22
Nevada
14
14
14
11
17
14.0
23
West Virginia
13
20
13
8
16
14.0
24
California
9
13
16
11
20
13.8
25
Ohio State
12
10
15
13
19
13.8
26
Texas Tech
17
14
12
14
12
13.8
27
Troy
13
18
11
14
13
13.8
28
Idaho
13
17
6
13
19
13.6
29
Oklahoma State
18
10
14
11
15
13.6
30
Pittsburgh
17
15
9
14
13
13.6
31
Western Michigan
12
15
9
17
15
13.6
32
Army
11
14
12
11
19
13.4
33
South Carolina
12
12
13
12
18
13.4
34
Central Michigan
17
14
11
9
15
13.2
35
Houston
14
12
16
12
12
13.2
36
Louisville
20
19
9
9
9
13.2
37
Northwestern
11
13
14
18
10
13.2
38
Rice
20
12
13
9
12
13.2
39
Tulane
13
16
12
8
17
13.2
40
Utah
17
12
12
12
13
13.2
41
Rutgers
14
14
12
11
14
13.0
42
Tulsa
7
14
19
15
10
13.0
43
Wake Forest
10
14
18
7
16
13.0
44
Washington
12
10
7
21
15
13.0
45
Clemson
16
11
12
14
11
12.8
46
Kansas
17
8
16
12
11
12.8
47
Maryland
10
19
9
10
16
12.8
48
Minnesota
16
9
16
13
10
12.8
49
North Carolina
10
13
13
17
11
12.8
50
Stanford
9
15
16
8
16
12.8
51
Florida State
7
11
20
11
14
12.6
52
Fresno State
13
11
11
14
14
12.6
53
Ohio
10
12
12
17
12
12.6
54
Texas A&M
11
18
9
10
15
12.6
55
Boise State
11
8
13
11
19
12.4
56
Illinois
11
10
16
11
14
12.4
57
Indiana
14
16
15
12
5
12.4
58
Toledo
9
14
10
18
11
12.4
59
Vanderbilt
14
9
16
9
14
12.4
60
Air Force
7
13
19
12
10
12.2
61
Michigan
15
16
15
9
6
12.2
62
Mississippi
15
8
13
13
12
12.2
63
Oregon
7
12
12
13
17
12.2
64
SMU
12
15
11
16
7
12.2
65
UCLA
12
16
12
13
8
12.2
66
Arkansas
11
13
9
12
15
12.0
67
Boston College
17
12
12
9
10
12.0
68
Michigan State
15
17
10
5
13
12.0
69
UNLV
16
13
7
12
12
12.0
70
Akron
12
13
14
10
10
11.8
71
Arizona State
14
12
10
14
9
11.8
72
TCU
12
8
14
10
15
11.8
73
UCF
9
10
8
17
15
11.8
74
Washington State
13
13
6
15
12
11.8
75
Western Kentucky
9
13
13
11.7
76
North Carolina State
6
13
13
9
17
11.6
77
Wyoming
15
9
9
15
10
11.6
78
Connecticut
6
11
9
13
18
11.4
79
Kansas State
17
12
9
8
11
11.4
80
Mississippi State
13
12
10
8
14
11.4
81
Northern Illinois
11
8
14
14
10
11.4
82
Syracuse
13
8
11
13
12
11.4
83
Colorado State
7
15
11
9
14
11.2
84
Florida International
9
14
10
6
17
11.2
85
Memphis
13
13
11
13
6
11.2
86
Nebraska
15
7
11
14
9
11.2
87
UAB
17
9
6
14
10
11.2
88
BYU
8
3
19
13
12
11.0
89
Louisiana Tech
14
11
11
8
11
11.0
90
Miami (Florida)
11
13
10
11
10
11.0
91
South Florida
15
11
9
13
7
11.0
92
Arizona
12
8
15
10
9
10.8
93
Auburn
14
13
6
9
12
10.8
94
Ball State
12
9
8
14
11
10.8
95
Baylor
10
10
11
12
11
10.8
96
Bowling Green
6
18
7
12
11
10.8
97
Iowa
8
16
10
14
6
10.8
98
Alabama
17
8
11
8
9
10.6
99
Colorado
14
10
8
13
8
10.6
100
Duke
11
11
11
8
12
10.6
101
Florida Atlantic
11
15
6
10
11
10.6
102
Cincinnati
10
12
9
9
12
10.4
103
Arkansas State
7
9
9
11
15
10.2
104
Louisiana-Lafayette
9
11
12
13
6
10.2
105
Tennessee
7
11
6
18
9
10.2
106
Wisconsin
15
8
8
11
9
10.2
107
Marshall
12
8
10
9
11
10.0
108
Miami (Ohio)
8
10
8
11
13
10.0
109
Penn State
10
17
10
8
4
9.8
110
Eastern Michigan
10
12
8
7
10
9.4
111
Georgia
12
10
6
9
10
9.4
112
Notre Dame
11
12
9
7
8
9.4
113
Utah State
11
12
10
11
3
9.4
114
Louisiana-Monroe
15
6
9
9
6
9.0
115
Florida
9
11
8
10
6
8.8
116
Virginia
9
9
10
9
7
8.8
117
North Texas
8
12
5
8
9
8.4
118
UTEP
7
7
10
8
10
8.4
119
New Mexico State
8
7
8
11
7
8.2
120
San Diego State
8
7
11
5
8
7.8
Texas sits atop the rankings. The Longhorns have pretty consistently run a great defense out on the field, as evidenced by their Defensive FEI rankings since '07 of 42nd, 3rd, 10th, and 31st. And with basically carte blanche to the states' top recruits, they should field a great defense.
It's also interesting to note that Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida do NOT force that many fumbles. Duke and UVa. pull up the rear in the ACC and are sub-100 nationally. USC, Purdue, and East Carolina rank in the top quarter or so of FF, but also demonstrate some of the largest variances. ECU really dropped off this past year, as they only had 3 retuning starters on the 2010 season. And we stole their DC.
Florida State demonstrates one of the largest variations in FF during the 5 year period (not shown), with an '06 minimum of 6 and an '08 maximum of 20. The most consistent FBS team is Baylor, though they average slightly less (10.8) than the mean number of FF (12.3) over the 5-year period.
If you're a TN-regular or upright thinking football-type, you may be asking yourself, "But what about the number of plays a defensive unit sees?" Opponents that can score quickly, run up-tempo schemes, or if your offense turns the ball over frequently, puts their defense in a position of having to take a high number of snaps. In 2010, FSU's defense saw the #3 most snaps of all FBS defenses. Consider that FSU ran the 100th-ranked offensive pace (i.e., very slow), and you realize that Jimbo and Co. was trying his best to shelter his new scheme and young personnel. OU and other teams aimed to force our defense to take as many snaps as possible. FSU was able to right the ship, though, in the 2nd half of the BYU game. After seeing no-huddle for much of the first half and keeping the game close (13-10) going into halftime, FSU would go on a reel of 8 consecutive quarters of 0-point ball (2 vs. BYU, 4 vs. WF, and 2 @ UVa).
Back to that Advanced NFL Stats article: The rate of defensive forced fumbles (i.e., FF per defensive play) proved to be the strongest variable toward determining defensive ranking and total team wins. We know that the amount of plays a defense sees can reflect their own team's offensive pace (i.e., HUNH-offenses will increase the number of possessions (and thus plays) for both teams at play). So, taking into account the number of snaps a defense sees, how does FSU's rate compare? Who has the #1 rate of FF? In 2010? Since 2006?
Team forced fumbles (FF) on percentage of total defensive plays since 2006.
Team
FFpP.06
FFpP.07
FFpP.08
FFpP.09
FFpP.10
FFpP.Avg
1
Texas
2.78%
1.49%
1.89%
1.74%
2.55%
2.05%
2
Iowa State
1.41%
1.85%
2.6%
2.15%
1.81%
1.97%
3
Oregon State
2.06%
1.68%
1.86%
1.79%
1.74%
1.83%
4
Buffalo
1.47%
1.83%
2.6%
1.52%
1.33%
1.78%
5
Georgia Tech
1.32%
2.09%
1.53%
1.93%
1.99%
1.77%
6
Army
1.43%
1.57%
1.66%
1.52%
2.52%
1.74%
7
USC
1.44%
2.29%
1.13%
2.07%
1.7%
1.74%
8
Missouri
1.97%
2.22%
1.46%
1.39%
1.62%
1.73%
9
New Mexico
1.73%
1.1%
1.99%
1.83%
2.03%
1.73%
10
Virginia Tech
2.02%
1.15%
2.52%
1.56%
1.57%
1.73%
11
Kent State
2.31%
1.19%
1.49%
2.09%
1.55%
1.72%
12
Temple
1.51%
1.69%
1.67%
1.87%
1.84%
1.72%
13
San Jose State
2.21%
1.27%
1.41%
2.39%
1.28%
1.7%
14
LSU
1.7%
1.64%
1.65%
1.1%
2.43%
1.69%
15
Ohio State
1.5%
1.2%
1.77%
1.57%
2.41%
1.69%
16
Oklahoma
1.52%
1.26%
2.01%
1.96%
1.7%
1.69%
17
Purdue
2.21%
1.4%
1.09%
1.66%
2%
1.68%
18
Southern Mississippi
1.41%
1.46%
1.83%
2.21%
1.44%
1.68%
19
Louisville
2.45%
2.33%
1.2%
1.17%
1.11%
1.66%
20
Kentucky
2.83%
1.23%
2.03%
0.95%
1.22%
1.65%
21
Tulane
1.6%
1.9%
1.6%
1%
2.17%
1.65%
22
Pittsburgh
2.08%
1.86%
1.06%
1.67%
1.55%
1.64%
23
West Virginia
1.56%
2.3%
1.44%
0.92%
1.99%
1.64%
24
Navy
1.48%
0.86%
2.1%
1.75%
2.01%
1.63%
25
Nevada
1.8%
1.51%
1.59%
1.32%
1.86%
1.62%
26
Western Michigan
1.57%
1.75%
0.97%
2.01%
1.84%
1.62%
27
Rutgers
1.84%
1.59%
1.52%
1.33%
1.8%
1.61%
28
Hawai'i
2.04%
1.47%
1.62%
1.15%
1.65%
1.59%
29
Idaho
1.7%
1.96%
0.7%
1.5%
2.05%
1.59%
30
South Carolina
1.53%
1.37%
1.62%
1.45%
1.94%
1.59%
31
Middle Tennessee
2.24%
1.72%
1.47%
1.68%
0.92%
1.58%
32
East Carolina
1.53%
1.92%
1.59%
1.93%
0.84%
1.57%
33
California
1.06%
1.33%
1.73%
1.24%
2.51%
1.55%
34
Utah
2.09%
1.31%
1.46%
1.37%
1.56%
1.55%
35
Washington
1.49%
1.06%
0.85%
2.77%
1.69%
1.54%
36
Troy
1.48%
2.11%
1.17%
1.49%
1.42%
1.53%
37
Northwestern
1.4%
1.54%
1.51%
2.14%
1.07%
1.52%
38
Vanderbilt
1.88%
1.16%
1.88%
1.07%
1.61%
1.52%
39
Rice
2.44%
1.28%
1.38%
1.07%
1.43%
1.51%
40
North Carolina
1.3%
1.54%
1.37%
2.04%
1.26%
1.5%
41
Stanford
1.07%
1.67%
1.97%
0.91%
1.93%
1.5%
42
TCU
1.59%
0.86%
1.89%
1.25%
2.1%
1.5%
43
Fresno State
1.69%
1.18%
1.26%
1.69%
1.69%
1.49%
44
Illinois
1.38%
1.06%
1.99%
1.36%
1.65%
1.48%
45
Minnesota
1.74%
0.99%
1.83%
1.42%
1.4%
1.48%
46
Toledo
1.17%
1.65%
1.21%
2.12%
1.23%
1.48%
47
Wake Forest
1.09%
1.47%
2.14%
0.88%
1.81%
1.48%
48
Kansas
2.02%
0.86%
1.73%
1.44%
1.32%
1.47%
49
Mississippi
1.88%
0.88%
1.53%
1.5%
1.57%
1.46%
50
Texas Tech
1.94%
1.42%
1.35%
1.48%
1.17%
1.46%
51
Air Force
0.97%
1.38%
2.17%
1.51%
1.15%
1.45%
52
Boise State
1.45%
0.91%
1.41%
1.25%
2.28%
1.45%
53
Clemson
1.89%
1.25%
1.38%
1.45%
1.27%
1.45%
54
Indiana
1.82%
1.57%
1.67%
1.44%
0.67%
1.45%
55
Maryland
1.21%
2.15%
0.98%
1.22%
1.63%
1.45%
56
UNLV
2.02%
1.58%
0.85%
1.46%
1.37%
1.45%
57
Florida State
0.84%
1.2%
2.53%
1.31%
1.39%
1.44%
58
Western Kentucky
NA%
NA%
1.08%
1.57%
1.7%
1.44%
59
Oklahoma State
2.13%
1.03%
1.49%
1.2%
1.4%
1.43%
60
Tulsa
0.91%
1.31%
2.05%
1.77%
1.06%
1.43%
61
UCLA
1.43%
1.64%
1.52%
1.56%
0.96%
1.43%
62
Arizona State
1.73%
1.34%
1.2%
1.87%
1.03%
1.42%
63
Houston
1.59%
1.39%
1.66%
1.14%
1.34%
1.42%
64
Mississippi State
1.82%
1.36%
1.3%
1.03%
1.59%
1.42%
65
Michigan
1.9%
1.78%
1.79%
1.07%
0.62%
1.41%
66
Ohio
1.15%
1.33%
1.47%
1.7%
1.39%
1.41%
67
Akron
1.46%
1.47%
1.63%
1.2%
1.23%
1.4%
68
North Carolina State
0.8%
1.42%
1.46%
1.18%
2.03%
1.4%
69
Texas A&M
1.43%
1.94%
1.03%
1.07%
1.51%
1.4%
70
Central Michigan
1.71%
1.29%
1.22%
0.96%
1.84%
1.39%
71
Michigan State
1.95%
1.95%
1.15%
0.55%
1.49%
1.39%
72
Wyoming
2.07%
1.05%
1.11%
1.64%
1.17%
1.39%
73
Colorado State
0.93%
1.79%
1.27%
1.1%
1.78%
1.38%
74
Washington State
1.66%
1.41%
0.68%
1.73%
1.44%
1.38%
75
Syracuse
1.6%
0.88%
1.31%
1.75%
1.4%
1.37%
76
UAB
2.34%
1%
0.77%
1.64%
1.2%
1.37%
77
Arkansas
1.23%
1.32%
1.11%
1.33%
1.74%
1.35%
78
Connecticut
0.79%
1.22%
1.14%
1.51%
1.95%
1.35%
79
Northern Illinois
1.29%
0.89%
1.81%
1.76%
1.1%
1.35%
80
Memphis
1.66%
1.39%
1.42%
1.52%
0.72%
1.34%
81
Miami (Florida)
1.46%
1.6%
1.2%
1.32%
1.14%
1.34%
82
SMU
1.46%
1.56%
1.24%
1.72%
0.71%
1.33%
83
Boston College
2%
1.19%
1.35%
1%
1.1%
1.32%
84
Kansas State
1.98%
1.37%
0.97%
1.06%
1.21%
1.32%
85
UCF
1.14%
0.98%
0.95%
1.95%
1.62%
1.32%
86
Florida International
1.12%
1.63%
1.13%
0.67%
1.97%
1.3%
87
Arizona
1.65%
0.88%
1.83%
1.21%
1.01%
1.29%
88
Arkansas State
1.04%
1.08%
1.15%
1.4%
1.69%
1.29%
89
Bowling Green
0.84%
1.89%
0.86%
1.4%
1.3%
1.29%
90
Duke
1.4%
1.25%
1.39%
1%
1.42%
1.29%
91
Oregon
0.86%
1.23%
1.16%
1.36%
1.77%
1.29%
92
Alabama
2.3%
0.89%
1.28%
0.95%
1.12%
1.28%
93
Colorado
1.75%
1.11%
0.96%
1.61%
0.99%
1.28%
94
BYU
0.94%
0.34%
2.15%
1.49%
1.42%
1.27%
95
South Florida
1.77%
1.17%
1.11%
1.56%
0.8%
1.27%
96
Wisconsin
1.94%
0.94%
0.94%
1.41%
1.14%
1.26%
97
Auburn
1.81%
1.52%
0.77%
0.95%
1.25%
1.25%
98
Ball State
1.46%
0.99%
0.84%
1.68%
1.35%
1.25%
99
Florida Atlantic
1.57%
1.52%
0.64%
1.29%
1.28%
1.25%
100
Louisiana Tech
1.59%
1.26%
1.22%
0.97%
1.2%
1.25%
101
Louisiana-Lafayette
1.26%
1.22%
1.44%
1.6%
0.74%
1.25%
102
Nebraska
1.7%
0.74%
1.37%
1.47%
0.96%
1.24%
103
Iowa
0.89%
1.82%
1.16%
1.66%
0.68%
1.23%
104
Miami (Ohio)
1.12%
1.07%
1.06%
1.42%
1.49%
1.23%
105
Eastern Michigan
1.22%
1.44%
1.07%
0.94%
1.33%
1.21%
106
Baylor
1.21%
1.08%
1.24%
1.32%
1.13%
1.19%
107
Penn State
1.19%
1.92%
1.21%
0.99%
0.48%
1.17%
108
Tennessee
0.88%
1.06%
0.77%
2.11%
0.99%
1.17%
109
Cincinnati
1.25%
1.24%
0.94%
0.96%
1.44%
1.16%
110
Marshall
1.49%
0.92%
1.08%
1.06%
1.24%
1.15%
111
Georgia
1.55%
1.15%
0.74%
1.04%
1.21%
1.13%
112
Utah State
1.45%
1.38%
1.18%
1.28%
0.35%
1.12%
113
Notre Dame
1.36%
1.35%
1.06%
0.91%
0.88%
1.11%
114
Louisiana-Monroe
1.91%
0.7%
1.1%
1.1%
0.75%
1.1%
115
Virginia
1.25%
0.97%
1.22%
1.06%
0.89%
1.07%
116
Florida
1.09%
1.21%
0.89%
1.18%
0.7%
1.02%
117
North Texas
1.02%
1.37%
0.62%
0.95%
1.12%
1.02%
118
New Mexico State
1.07%
0.78%
0.99%
1.26%
0.88%
0.99%
119
UTEP
0.84%
0.72%
1.17%
0.91%
1.07%
0.94%
120
San Diego State
1.02%
0.74%
1.23%
0.59%
0.84%
0.88%
Some very interesting things show up once we take into account FF per Play (FFpP). For instance, since 2006 Texas (2.05%) has forced more than twice as many FF per play as Florida (1.02%) .
Virginia Tech actually moves up in the rankings once taking into account the amount of plays the defense faced. Bud Foster has to be considered one of the best college DCs ever. Can you name someone who has consistently gotten more out of a defense that has never won a recruiting championship? Their '06-'10 average was 19th.
FSU actually falls a few rankings, though still above the median ranking.
Please feel free to share your thoughts/insights. Here's a link to the data, if you're interested in that sort of thing (not that there's anything wrong with that!).
