Elite States of Recruiting: Quarterbacks

My previous article on recruiting got me thinking about geography, and on a country-wide scale. What schools are getting the best skill players? The best OL / DL? Which conferences are pulling in the most elite talent at a given position? Which states produce the most elite-level recruits for a given position? Today's look will focus on elite QB recruits from 2006 through the 2011 recruiting cycles.

If you're Whatsamatta U somewhere in the Midwest and you want to secure an elite QB recruit, can you expect to stay in-state to find your guy? Maybe a nearby state? Or just maybe you're in a water-cooler argument. By the end of this and future positional articles, you'll be armed to the teeth. This is part 1 of a multi-part series on elite prep player production per state.

Quarterbacks

Perhaps no one player is more important toward an offense's and thus team's success than its quarterback. And elite quarterbacking can elevate even the most vanilla scheme into a high-powered offense. Elite quarterback recruits are highly sought-after prizes.

We at Florida State have to be enamored with Coach Fisher's commitment to playing the best QB available, their maturation under center in an NFL-friendly offense, and his unbelievable recruiting of QBs with arms, legs, and brains. While EJ Manuel is his first real QB recruit to start at FSU, the securing of 2012 dual-threat QB commit Jameis Winston promulgates Fisher's recruiting philosophy and achievement. Jameis is similarly talented to Manuel, and perhaps similarly destined.

For this and future studies, we'll be looking at the top ESPN QB recruits from 2006 through 2011. Note that ESPN did not use the star designations until the 2010 recruiting cycle. Therefore, I've limited the sample to QB recruits who graded at 80 or better for this study (this left out a few 4* 79 players; but not all 79 grade players were 4-star recruits).

Some of you may duck, but the rest of you should jump.

The following is a table of 80-and-above grade QB recruits, sorted by School.

ESPN 80+ QBs (2006 through 2011) by school

Recruit Year Grade School State A.J. McCarron 2009 83 Alabama Alabama Phillip Sims 2010 83 Alabama Virginia Tyler Lyon 2006 80 Arizona California Mitch Mustain 2006 91 Arkansas Arkansas Tyler Wilson 2008 82 Arkansas Arkansas Neil Caudle 2006 81 Auburn Alabama Kiehl Frazier 2011 81 Auburn Arkansas Steven Ensminger 2006 80 Auburn Louisiana Kelly Page 2008 80 Ball State Texas Chase Rettig 2010 80 Boston College California Jake Heaps 2010 80 Brigham Young Washington Kevin Riley 2006 80 Cal Oregon Kyle Parker 2008 83 Clemson Florida Tajh Boyd 2009 82 Clemson Virginia Willy Korn 2007 80 Clemson South Carolina Tim Tebow 2006 90 Florida Florida Jeff Driskel 2011 85 Florida Florida John Brantley 2007 84 Florida Florida Jordan Reed 2009 81 Florida Connecticut Cameron Newton 2007 81 Florida Georgia EJ Manuel 2008 82 Florida State Virginia Matthew Stafford 2006 93 Georgia Texas Aaron Murray 2009 86 Georgia Florida Logan Gray 2007 82 Georgia Missouri Zach Mettenberger 2009 81 Georgia Georgia Christian LeMay 2011 81 Georgia North Carolina Isiah Williams 2006 82 Illinois Illinois John Wienke 2008 80 Iowa Illinois Josh Freeman 2006 80 Kansas State Missouri Morgan Newton 2009 81 Kentucky Indiana Teddy Bridgewater 2011 80 Louisville Florida Jarrett Lee 2007 81 LSU Texas Jerrard Randall 2011 80 LSU Florida Jordan Jefferson 2008 80 LSU Louisiana Zach Lee 2010 80 LSU Texas Jeremy Ricker 2006 81 Maryland Pennsylvania Tyler Smith 2010 80 Maryland Pennsylvania Taylor Cook 2008 81 Miami (FL) Texas Robert Marve 2007 80 Miami (FL) Florida Ryan Mallett 2007 85 Michigan Texas Tate Forcier 2009 81 Michigan California Devin Gardner 2010 81 Michigan Michigan Andrew Maxwell 2009 80 Michigan State Michigan Clint Brewster 2007 82 Minnesota Colorado Moses Alipate 2009 81 Minnesota Minnesota MarQueis Gray 2008 80 Minnesota Indiana Blaine Gabbert 2008 83 Missouri Missouri Bubba Starling 2011 81 Nebraska Kansas Bryn Renner 2009 81 North Carolina Virginia Mike Glennon 2008 83 North Carolina State Virginia Jimmy Clausen 2007 86 Notre Dame California Dayne Crist 2008 84 Notre Dame California Zachary Frazer 2006 83 Notre Dame Pennsylvania Demetrius Jones 2006 82 Notre Dame Illinois Andrew Hendrix 2010 80 Notre Dame Ohio Terrelle Pryror 2008 93 Ohio State Pennsylvania Braxton Miller 2011 81 Ohio State Ohio Blake Bell 2010 81 Oklahoma Kansas Landry Jones 2008 81 Oklahoma New Mexico J.W. Walsh 2011 80 Oklahoma State Texas Robert Bolden 2010 81 Penn State Michigan Patrick Devlin 2006 81 Penn State Pennsylvania Tino Sunseri 2008 80 Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Tom Savage 2009 81 Rutgers Pennsylvania Stephen Garcia 2007 82 South Carolina Florida Andrew Luck 2008 82 Stanford Texas Josh Nunes 2009 81 Stanford California Brett Nottingham 2010 80 Stanford California Tyler Bray 2010 81 Tennessee California Jevan Snead 2006 91 Texas Texas Garret Gilbert 2009 86 Texas Texas David Ash 2011 80 Texas Texas Jacob Karam 2009 80 Texas Tech Texas Brett Hundley 2011 81 UCLA Arizona Nick Crissman 2008 81 UCLA California Richard Brehaut 2009 81 UCLA California Matt Barkley 2009 93 USC California Aaron Corp 2007 82 USC California Jesse Scroggins 2010 82 USC California Max Wittek 2011 81 USC California Tyrod Taylor 2007 84 Virginia Tech Virginia Jake Locker 2006 83 Washington Washington Eugene Smith 2009 81 West Viriginia Florida Jon Budmayr 2009 80 Wisconsin Illinois

Florida, Georgia, & Notre Dame each took 5 elite QBs over the 6 recruiting-cycle period (2006-2011). Their respective program ratings over nearly the same period (2006-2010) were 2nd, 12th, & 30th.

Tied for 2nd in total Elite QB recruits were LSU (3rd in program rating) & USC (8th), each with 4.

Tied for 3rd were Minnesota (70th), Michigan (50th), Clemson (13th), UCLA (60), Texas (17), Stanford (22), & Auburn (7), each with 3. Arguably, Cam Newton could be moved into Auburn's category $ince he most contributed to Auburn's 2010 success.

Here are the aggregate elite QB recruits by conference. The SEC took in a whopping 29% of all elite QBs during the 2006-2011 period. Florida State had only 1 of the ACC's 12. In all, there were 84 elite QBs that committed to a school during the 2006-2011 period.

 

Conference	Elite QBs
SEC	24
Big Ten	14
Pac-10	13
ACC	12
Big 12	10
Indep. (ND)	5
Big East	4
MAC	1
MWC	1

 

Elite QB-producing States

Here is the first list, now sorted by State.

ESPN 80+ QBs (2006 through 2011) by home-state

Recruit Year Grade School State A.J. McCarron 2009 83 Alabama Alabama Neil Caudle 2006 81 Auburn Alabama Brett Hundley 2011 81 UCLA Arizona Mitch Mustain 2006 91 Arkansas Arkansas Tyler Wilson 2008 82 Arkansas Arkansas Kiehl Frazier 2011 81 Auburn Arkansas Tyler Lyon 2006 80 Arizona California Chase Rettig 2010 80 Boston College California Tate Forcier 2009 81 Michigan California Jimmy Clausen 2007 86 Notre Dame California Dayne Crist 2008 84 Notre Dame California Josh Nunes 2009 81 Stanford California Brett Nottingham 2010 80 Stanford California Tyler Bray 2010 81 Tennessee California Nick Crissman 2008 81 UCLA California Richard Brehaut 2009 81 UCLA California Aaron Corp 2007 82 USC California Matt Barkley 2009 93 USC California Jesse Scroggins 2010 82 USC California Max Wittek 2011 81 USC California Clint Brewster 2007 82 Minnesota Colorado Jordan Reed 2009 81 Florida Connecticut Kyle Parker 2008 83 Clemson Florida Tim Tebow 2006 90 Florida Florida John Brantley 2007 84 Florida Florida Jeff Driskel 2011 85 Florida Florida Aaron Murray 2009 86 Georgia Florida Teddy Bridgewater 2011 80 Louisville Florida Jerrard Randall 2011 80 LSU Florida Robert Marve 2007 80 Miami (FL) Florida Stephen Garcia 2007 82 South Carolina Florida Eugene Smith 2009 81 West Viriginia Florida Cameron Newton 2007 81 Florida Georgia Zach Mettenberger 2009 81 Georgia Georgia Isiah Williams 2006 82 Illinois Illinois John Wienke 2008 80 Iowa Illinois Demetrius Jones 2006 82 Notre Dame Illinois Jon Budmayr 2009 80 Wisconsin Illinois Morgan Newton 2009 81 Kentucky Indiana MarQueis Gray 2008 80 Minnesota Indiana Bubba Starling 2011 81 Nebraska Kansas Blake Bell 2010 81 Oklahoma Kansas Steven Ensminger 2006 80 Auburn Louisiana Jordan Jefferson 2008 80 LSU Louisiana Devin Gardner 2010 81 Michigan Michigan Andrew Maxwell 2009 80 Michigan State Michigan Robert Bolden 2010 81 Penn State Michigan Moses Alipate 2009 81 Minnesota Minnesota Logan Gray 2007 82 Georgia Missouri Josh Freeman 2006 80 Kansas State Missouri Blaine Gabbert 2008 83 Missouri Missouri Landry Jones 2008 81 Oklahoma New Mexico Christian LeMay 2011 81 Georgia North Carolina Andrew Hendrix 2010 80 Notre Dame Ohio Braxton Miller 2011 81 Ohio State Ohio Kevin Riley 2006 80 Cal Oregon Jeremy Ricker 2006 81 Maryland Pennsylvania Tyler Smith 2010 80 Maryland Pennsylvania Zachary Frazer 2006 83 Notre Dame Pennsylvania Terrelle Pryror 2008 93 Ohio State Pennsylvania Patrick Devlin 2006 81 Penn State Pennsylvania Tino Sunseri 2008 80 Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Tom Savage 2009 81 Rutgers Pennsylvania Willy Korn 2007 80 Clemson South Carolina Kelly Page 2008 80 Ball State Texas Matthew Stafford 2006 93 Georgia Texas Jarrett Lee 2007 81 LSU Texas Zach Lee 2010 80 LSU Texas Taylor Cook 2008 81 Miami (FL) Texas Ryan Mallett 2007 85 Michigan Texas J.W. Walsh 2011 80 Oklahoma State Texas Andrew Luck 2008 82 Stanford Texas Jevan Snead 2006 91 Texas Texas Garret Gilbert 2009 86 Texas Texas David Ash 2011 80 Texas Texas Jacob Karam 2009 80 Texas Tech Texas Phillip Sims 2010 83 Alabama Virginia Tajh Boyd 2009 82 Clemson Virginia EJ Manuel 2008 82 Florida State Virginia Bryn Renner 2009 81 North Carolina Virginia Mike Glennon 2008 83 North Carolina State Virginia Tyrod Taylor 2007 84 Virginia Tech Virginia Jake Heaps 2010 80 Brigham Young Washington Jake Locker 2006 83 Washington Washington

Per capita

In 2009, 24.3% of the US population of 308 million was under the age of 18, or about 75 million kids (quickfacts.census.gov). The numbers and percentages, obviously, vary by state. Florida, for example, had 21.9% of its roughly 18.8 million person population under the age of 18, or about 4.1 million kids.

Let's start with a simple assumption that any state can produce an elite QB recruit equally. Said another way, how might a state's population determine the likelihood of producing said recruit? This is the per capita argument: Total state numbers (here, elite QB recruits) are primarily determined by that state's population. Let's test this hypothesis.

The table below is a list of States along with their respective youth population (under 18; in units of 1,000). The next column "% of US" is the percentage of all US youth in that state by US total number (approximately 74.4 million ; taken from government 2005 estimates). After that is the total number of elite QB recruits from that state from 2006 to 2011. "% of Elite QBs" is a column to show each state's percentage of total elite QB recruits by the total US number. Finally, the "Rate" column is the fun part: We divide a state's percent of elite QB recruits by its percentage of total under-18 US population. A number here greater than 1.0 means that that state is producing more elite QB recruits than what the per capita line-of-thinking says we should be seeing; lower than 1.0 means you're not producing your fair share.

2006-2011 Elite QB recruit home-state comparison. (Population numbers are in units of 1,000)

State Under 18 % of  Elite QBs % of Elite QBs Odds Ratio Arkansas 703 0.94% 3 3.57% 3.78 Virginia 1,880 2.53% 6 7.14% 2.83 Kansas 699 0.94% 2 2.38% 2.54 Pennsylvania 2,748 3.69% 7 8.33% 2.26 Florida 4,086 5.49% 10 11.90% 2.17 Missouri 1,411 1.90% 3 3.57% 1.88 New Mexico 479 0.64% 1 1.19% 1.85 Alabama 1,092 1.47% 2 2.38% 1.62 Texas 6,785 9.12% 12 14.29% 1.57 Louisiana 1,172 1.57% 2 2.38% 1.51 California 9,497 12.76% 14 16.67% 1.31 Washington 1,488 2.00% 2 2.38% 1.19 Indiana 1,596 2.14% 2 2.38% 1.11 Connecticut 814 1.09% 1 1.19% 1.09 Michigan 2,487 3.34% 3 3.57% 1.07 Oregon 863 1.16% 1 1.19% 1.03 South Carolina 1,036 1.39% 1 1.19% 0.86 Illinois 3,197 4.30% 4 4.76% 0.90 Colorado 1,189 1.60% 1 1.19% 0.75 Georgia 2,502 3.36% 2 2.38% 0.71 Minnesota 1,290 1.73% 1 1.19% 0.69 Ohio 2,744 3.69% 2 2.38% 0.65 Arizona 1,688 2.27% 1 1.19% 0.52 North Carolina 2,269 3.05% 1 1.19% 0.39 Alaska 184 0.25% 0 0.00% 0.00 Delaware 202 0.27% 0 0.00% 0.00 D.C. 114 0.15% 0 0.00% 0.00 Hawaii 316 0.42% 0 0.00% 0.00 Idaho 400 0.54% 0 0.00% 0.00 Iowa 711 0.96% 0 0.00% 0.00 Kentucky 1,002 1.35% 0 0.00% 0.00 Maine 269 0.36% 0 0.00% 0.00 Maryland 1,406 1.89% 0 0.00% 0.00 Massachusetts 1,484 1.99% 0 0.00% 0.00 Mississippi 759 1.02% 0 0.00% 0.00 Montana 212 0.28% 0 0.00% 0.00 Nebraska 446 0.60% 0 0.00% 0.00 Nevada 665 0.89% 0 0.00% 0.00 New Hampshire 304 0.41% 0 0.00% 0.00 New Jersey 2,088 2.81% 0 0.00% 0.00 New York 4,421 5.94% 0 0.00% 0.00 North Dakota 142 0.19% 0 0.00% 0.00 Oklahoma 895 1.20% 0 0.00% 0.00 Rhode Island 249 0.33% 0 0.00% 0.00 South Dakota 194 0.26% 0 0.00% 0.00 Tennessee 1,479 1.99% 0 0.00% 0.00 Utah 819 1.10% 0 0.00% 0.00 Vermont 132 0.18% 0 0.00% 0.00 West Virginia 382 0.51% 0 0.00% 0.00 Wisconsin 1,319 1.77% 0 0.00% 0.00 Wyoming 116 0.16% 0 0.00% 0.00