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FSU vs Buffalo game chart

Continuing with player efficiency margins, which will be charted for every game this season.

By Michael Rogner
Streeter Lecka

One new addition to the hoops coverage this season will be the charting of individual player efficiency margins. It's simple stuff. You chart the five players on the floor for each possession, and how that possession ended. When the offense scores, that's good. When the defense gets scored on, that's bad.

Think of it as an advanced +/- calculation.

+/- has several flaws, which efficiency margins attempts to address. For one, not all points are created equally. We want to know how the player impacts the team on both sides of the ball, and not simply have a general impact number. And we also want to be able to filter out points which are not impacted by how efficiently the five on the court are playing. For example, South Alabama scored 2 points on a technical foul after Terrance Shannon hung on the rim (apparently these refs never watched any John Henson dunk ever). Those shouldn't be credited against the five defenders on the court. South Alabama also scored four points when FSU was desperately fouling at the end. What's to blame there - poor free throw defense?

The Buffalo game introduced a new concept: garbage time. Statistical models can predict when a team has been mathematically eliminated, and in this case is was immediately following the under-4 timeout. So the final 3:48 of the game is not included in this analysis. Which makes Joey Moreau sad.

The caveat is not to read too much into any one single game. This stuff requires large datasets, and while one game might be interesting, the trends will take time.

Here's the offense from the Buffalo game.

player oPoss Pts oPPP dPoss Pts dPPP eff
Brandon 32 47 1.47 32 30 0.94 0.53
Bojanovsky 19 26 1.37 18 12 0.67 0.70
Snaer 41 56 1.37 41 34 0.83 0.54
Shannon 34 46 1.35 35 30 0.86 0.50
Turpin 27 36 1.33 26 23 0.88 0.45
Miller 28 37 1.32 28 28 1.00 0.32
Whisnant 42 54 1.29 42 41 0.98 0.31
Ojo 15 19 1.27 16 19 1.19 0.08
White 34 41 1.21 34 36 1.06 0.15
Bookert 34 40 1.18 34 35 1.03 0.15
Thomas 23 27 1.17 23 27 1.17 0.00
Gilchrist 6 6 1.00 6 10 1.67 -0.67

When Montay Brandon was on the court, the offense was ridiculous. 1.47 points per possession, against a pretty decent defense? If FSU's offense operated that way, the Noles would average over 105 points a game. Overall, it was a great game, with only one player failing to top a point-per-possession.

Defensively, it was a good effort as well. It looked like this:

player oPoss Pts oPPP dPoss Pts dPPP eff
Bojanovsky 19 26 1.37 18 12 0.67 0.70
Snaer 41 56 1.37 41 34 0.83 0.54
Shannon 34 46 1.35 35 30 0.86 0.50
Turpin 27 36 1.33 26 23 0.88 0.45
Brandon 32 47 1.47 32 30 0.94 0.53
Whisnant 42 54 1.29 42 41 0.98 0.31
Miller 28 37 1.32 28 28 1.00 0.32
Bookert 34 40 1.18 34 35 1.03 0.15
White 34 41 1.21 34 36 1.06 0.15
Thomas 23 27 1.17 23 27 1.17 0.00
Ojo 15 19 1.27 16 19 1.19 0.08
Gilchrist 6 6 1.00 6 10 1.67 -0.67

The defense played great when Bojo was on the floor. And the others you'd expect - Snaer, Shannon, Turp, etc... It's no surprise that the defense struggled when Ojo and/or Gilchrist were in, which definitely passes the eye test.

The overall efficiencies looked like this:

player oPoss Pts oPPP dPoss Pts dPPP eff
Bojanovsky 19 26 1.37 18 12 0.67 0.70
Snaer 41 56 1.37 41 34 0.83 0.54
Brandon 32 47 1.47 32 30 0.94 0.53
Shannon 34 46 1.35 35 30 0.86 0.50
Turpin 27 36 1.33 26 23 0.88 0.45
Miller 28 37 1.32 28 28 1.00 0.32
Whisnant 42 54 1.29 42 41 0.98 0.31
Bookert 34 40 1.18 34 35 1.03 0.15
White 34 41 1.21 34 36 1.06 0.15
Ojo 15 19 1.27 16 19 1.19 0.08
Thomas 23 27 1.17 23 27 1.17 0.00
Gilchrist 6 6 1.00 6 10 1.67 -0.67

This is simply their offense minus their defense. It's a bit surprising that White and Bookert were so low, but again, don't read too much into one game. This is a science which needs lots of data.

Which brings us to our first season-long look (hey, multiple games!) look:

player oPoss Pts oPPP dPoss Pts dPPP eMarg
Turpin 53 59 1.11 53 41 0.77 0.34
Bojanovsky 36 44 1.22 34 33 0.97 0.25
Whisnant 90 104 1.16 90 84 0.93 0.22
Snaer 103 115 1.12 103 93 0.90 0.21
Bookert 35 42 1.20 35 37 1.06 0.14
Shannon 89 102 1.15 91 92 1.01 0.14
Brandon 67 82 1.22 66 72 1.09 0.13
Miller 81 85 1.05 79 73 0.92 0.13
White 78 84 1.08 76 73 0.96 0.12
Ojo 16 21 1.31 17 21 1.24 0.08
Thomas 41 46 1.12 40 46 1.15 -0.03
Gilchrist 6 6 1.00 6 10 1.67 -0.67

Thoughts?

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