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BCS ranking projection, Bowl projections, and historical notes on FSU-Miami Vegas line

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Jeff Gammons

Florida State opened as a 21-point favorite over Miami. In the last 30 games in this series, that is the largest spread, tied with the 2012 game. Miami is certainly not one of the ten best teams in the country, and Vegas knows this. This spread implies FSU would be favored by two touchdowns in Miami, which means that Vegas thinks the Hurricanes have closed the gap on Florida State by about a touchdown. That feels right. FSU is improved over 2012, but it had far less room for improvement. Miami is considerably improved on defense.

Nightmare bowl scenarios: How pissed are the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls going to be if Fresno gets in? Very pissed. Full bowl projections here.

BCS ranking projection here has Oregon jumping FSU, which is unanimous among BCS experts. What a fitting way or the BCS to go out if this does go down as projected.

This is the first time since 1991 that Miami and Florida State enter the game with an unbeaten record in November.

FSU has a crazy amount of recruits coming in this weekend. We will have a full post on that Tuesday. As for yesterday's game, I did spot Montez Sweat, Jordan Woods, J.J. Cosentino, DJ Pettway, Brock Ruble, Jordan Prestwood and Dalvin Cook (the last four were on official visits).

Pretty cool stats roll here from Tim Reynolds.

Beware the soft factors

Just like we heard about "Noise, Death Valley, the streak, Clemson's year," etc., there will sure to be stuff this week like "it's a rivalry game and anything can happen," "James Coley knows Florida State," and "Miami has been in close games and knows how to win them."

Those factors do matter, just not nearly as much as the quality of the players and coaches on the team.