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Florida State football news 10.29.13

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

45-17. 23-19. 33-20. Since the four-touchdown win over Miami in 2010, it seems that the Hurricanes have closed the gap some with the Seminoles.

At least, if one was to only look at the final scores.

But scores can be misleading. Florida State dominated Miami in 2011 and 2012.

In both games, Miami punched in a late touchdown to make the game appear closer than it was. 2011 and 2012's total of 56-25 became 56-39.

But it was more than that. In the two games, officials accounted for a swing of at least 21 combined points in Miami's favor. Just watch the 2011 compilation of calls.


The line on the game (Florida State by 22) is almost the same as the line in the 2012 game in Miami. This indicates that Miami has indeed closed the gap some on Florida State, as the 2013 line implies that FSU would be favored by about 16 if this game were played in Miami.

But the gap closed is the actual gap between the teams, not the one shown on the final scoreboard in recent years.

In many ways, this reminds me of the 2012 game between Alabama and Mississippi State.

In that game Mississippi State came in undefeated at 7-0. And Vegas did not buy it, installing Alabama as a 24-point favorite. Mississippi State fans howled that their squad was not getting any respect. Alabama dominated, winning 38-7.

Making an undefeated team an underdog of three touchdowns or more, in November, is extremely rare. Vegas only does it when it's very sure. And I have not found a single instance in the last three decades of a team in Miami's situation even covering, much less winning outright.

Me on video discussing college football

It's SB Nation's "selection committee" video, featuring myself, Spencer Hall, Jason Kirk, Dan Rubenstein, and Bill Connelly.

I'll add more to this as stories come out today. In the meantime, we have a ton of content for you to check out.

The numerical

Click it! Bill Connelly goodness.

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