Florida State Baseball and the Field of 64: Regional Stat Breakdown

A regional by regional look of how each team matches up statistically with one another plus predicted winners.

By RaysnNoles May 29, 2014, 9:00am EDT

Yesterday we took a look at all 64 teams in a broader scope and applied certain statistics to them in a roto style scoring system. If you haven't looked at it I suggest you should before you compare the teams in each region, it might give you a better perspective when choosing a favorite in an individual region.

Each national seed below is paired with the other host school with the winner of each regional to meet in super regionals. (All stats as of 5/25/14)

Corvallis Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
49	6	1	Oregon St. (1)	76.1%	12.6%	36.9%	0.275	0.384	0.374	0.758	5.87	2.13	1.08	6.84	6.25	2.92	2.14
46	27	2	UNLV	77.1%	8.0%	39.3%	0.293	0.361	0.409	0.770	5.86	3.19	1.24	8.42	7.23	2.73	2.65
29	44	3	UC Irvine	55.4%	8.2%	30.9%	0.273	0.357	0.350	0.706	4.26	2.84	1.15	8.37	7.03	1.99	3.53
290	250	4	North Dakota St.	72.5%	10.4%	40.8%	0.275	0.370	0.349	0.719	5.65	4.42	1.54	9.80	7.01	4.06	1.73
Stillwater Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
165	18	1	Oklahoma St.	77.2%	12.1%	35.8%	0.274	0.386	0.398	0.784	6.05	3.27	1.34	8.35	7.21	3.69	1.95
45	26	2	Nebraska	67.9%	9.3%	40.5%	0.293	0.366	0.385	0.751	5.95	3.55	1.37	9.03	5.87	3.26	1.80
78	54	3	Cal St. Fullerton	73.0%	9.6%	32.0%	0.260	0.355	0.338	0.692	4.70	2.03	1.00	7.52	7.62	1.46	5.20
264	153	4	Binghamton	84.9%	10.0%	34.9%	0.273	0.362	0.373	0.735	5.08	4.02	1.41	8.93	5.57	3.80	1.47

I believe that Oregon State was deserving of the number one overall seed, they are well balanced, well coached and played in a competitive conference all season. For where UC Irvine is lacking offensively they make up for it with their pitching staff, they are one of only five teams in the tournament with a strikeout to walk ratio at 3.00 or better. The Anteaters have two strong starters and could give the Beavers but in the end I think OSU advances.

The Stillwater bracket has been labeled the Regional of Death or whatever nickname give to the host site that probably has the best teams. While Binghamton is one of the worst teams in the field the two and three seed are very dangerous teams. Cal State Fullerton has an atrocious offense but were ranked as one of the best teams in the nation to start the season because of how amazing their pitching staff is and they showed all season that they are the best. Oklahoma State has a exceptional offense and an average pitching staff which is enough for them to move on to supers.

Gainesville Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
1	3	1	Florida (2)	67.5%	9.1%	33.0%	0.267	0.350	0.352	0.702	4.67	3.26	1.25	8.51	6.72	2.78	2.42
26	42	2	North Carolina	73.7%	10.9%	34.1%	0.273	0.363	0.366	0.729	5.15	3.03	1.25	7.80	8.08	3.50	2.31
5	29	3	Long Beach St.	65.3%	7.5%	34.4%	0.261	0.332	0.338	0.670	4.25	2.91	1.14	7.80	5.73	2.47	2.32
180	53	4	Col. of Charleston	66.7%	9.7%	34.4%	0.261	0.347	0.375	0.723	5.00	2.81	1.12	7.48	7.65	2.60	2.94
Coral Gables Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
23	15	1	Miami (FL)	63.7%	10.6%	38.4%	0.262	0.353	0.362	0.715	5.50	3.10	1.27	8.19	8.19	3.27	2.51
7	17	2	Texas Tech	75.8%	10.2%	40.1%	0.294	0.385	0.422	0.807	6.40	3.44	1.30	8.60	6.63	3.07	2.16
64	35	3	Columbia	80.0%	7.6%	34.9%	0.265	0.346	0.370	0.716	4.81	3.35	1.23	7.71	7.68	3.35	2.29
161	208	4	Bethune-Cookman	75.4%	8.7%	33.2%	0.254	0.343	0.323	0.666	4.39	3.57	1.29	8.20	6.31	3.44	1.84

It was mentioned yesterday that Florida could face a challenge in their first game as College of Charleston is one of the best four seeds in the tournament. The Cougars have gone 7-7 against top 100 RPI teams this season and while the Gators have a fantastic record against elite competition (23 wins vs top 50 RPI) they have had a couple cases of wher ethey lost a game to an inferior team. Florida has too much talent to lost this region.

Texas Tech is probably the better than half of the two seeds in the field but the problem with the Raiders is that they don't have a great #2 pitcher that can match up with Miami and their ace. The Hurricanes had the best record in the ACC and while their numbers don't jump off the page as elite in any specific category they did have a great season. No other team in the pool can match rotation of starters that Miami can throw in the first three games.

Charlottesville Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
27	1	1	Virginia (3)	75.9%	11.1%	34.7%	0.277	0.376	0.384	0.760	5.40	2.36	1.04	6.47	8.19	2.85	2.88
69	33	2	Arkansas	77.1%	8.9%	36.0%	0.263	0.353	0.355	0.708	5.05	2.63	1.12	6.90	6.68	3.20	2.09
123	30	3	Liberty	66.7%	7.7%	38.0%	0.276	0.353	0.397	0.750	5.61	2.62	1.13	7.25	7.46	2.93	2.54
187	110	4	Bucknell	66.7%	7.7%	36.7%	0.249	0.332	0.329	0.661	4.32	3.41	1.25	8.56	5.59	2.66	2.10
Columbia Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
59	13	1	South Carolina	71.7%	9.9%	36.1%	0.280	0.360	0.375	0.735	5.38	2.37	1.12	7.55	7.67	2.56	3.00
33	25	2	Maryland	75.7%	9.9%	35.3%	0.270	0.380	0.362	0.743	5.40	3.42	1.25	7.77	8.39	3.45	2.43
8	36	3	Old Dominion	75.9%	8.5%	37.6%	0.283	0.364	0.372	0.737	5.67	3.43	1.30	8.97	6.39	2.74	2.33
222	67	4	Campbell	73.4%	6.9%	38.6%	0.273	0.361	0.344	0.705	5.41	3.45	1.40	9.35	6.91	3.24	2.14

Virginia does not want a repeat of last year where they lost at home in regionals and unfortunately they have one of the toughest two seeds to deal with. When healthy the Razorbacks have one of the strongest rotations in the country which is needed because there is nothing prolific about their offense. Virginia was one of the best teams in the nation all season and should be considered one of the most complete, they're too well rounded and well coached to lose early this year.

You couldn't pair four more perfectly matched offenses than what is seen in South Carolina's bracket. If the Gamecocks can get healthy there is no reason they should lose but Maryland has two very strong starters that could put them at two wins provided their offense can put a few runs on the board. As terrible as South Carolina looked in the SEC tournament and as much as I want to pick the Terps I think that the Cocks are too good of a team to lose at home in this setting that they are so familiar with.

Bloomington Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
16	2	1	Indiana (4)	68.8%	8.0%	40.8%	0.294	0.363	0.430	0.793	6.27	2.17	1.19	7.77	6.86	2.96	2.32
95	21	2	Indiana St.	75.3%	9.0%	34.0%	0.274	0.365	0.352	0.716	5.14	3.23	1.28	7.89	5.67	3.59	1.58
61	45	3	Stanford	62.0%	8.4%	31.6%	0.269	0.347	0.376	0.722	4.51	3.45	1.33	7.74	5.91	4.22	1.40
269	270	4	Youngstown St.	67.9%	9.8%	33.1%	0.256	0.345	0.333	0.678	4.67	6.90	1.83	11.59	5.20	4.85	1.07
Nashville Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
10	8	1	Vanderbilt	71.7%	8.9%	38.8%	0.278	0.363	0.388	0.751	5.53	2.74	1.13	6.71	8.86	3.49	2.54
101	23	2	Oregon	68.8%	9.6%	39.1%	0.259	0.361	0.376	0.737	5.58	3.03	1.18	7.55	7.75	3.07	2.53
53	49	3	Clemson	77.4%	10.0%	38.4%	0.276	0.354	0.382	0.737	5.63	3.69	1.32	7.95	8.05	3.94	2.04
135	97	4	Xavier	70.5%	8.9%	35.3%	0.283	0.363	0.390	0.753	5.64	4.32	1.37	8.43	5.16	3.87	1.33

The Hoosiers proved last season that despite playing in the Big 10 they are a legitimate team and this year they appear better than the one that made it to Omaha in 2013. They were probably given the easiest bracket as they should destroy Youngstown State and their dreadful pitching. Stanford was one of the final teams in and Indiana State us not some under the radar Cinderella team. Indiana wins their regional going away.

A national seed is what Vanderbilt was playing for going into their conference tournament but an 0-2 showing put an end to those hopes. There are no real great offenses in this bracket and all of the pitching staffs are very comparable. The safe pick is to go with the team that has all the advantages here and that is Vandy.

Tallahassee Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
15	4	1	Florida St.( 5)	80.3%	13.2%	39.6%	0.278	0.394	0.387	0.781	6.69	3.02	1.20	7.83	7.20	3.00	2.40
13	22	2	Alabama	70.5%	7.5%	34.4%	0.278	0.350	0.390	0.740	5.13	3.29	1.25	7.38	6.90	3.86	1.79
118	57	3	Kennesaw St.	74.0%	7.5%	40.6%	0.301	0.363	0.403	0.766	6.17	3.50	1.39	9.14	7.36	3.37	2.19
185	90	4	Ga. Southern	72.7%	10.0%	40.9%	0.289	0.372	0.432	0.804	6.68	3.17	1.29	8.61	7.76	2.97	2.62
Louisville Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
129	20	1	Louisville	79.1%	9.3%	40.9%	0.286	0.381	0.402	0.782	6.43	2.85	1.24	7.50	8.42	3.67	2.30
2	19	2	Kentucky	76.8%	10.3%	42.7%	0.302	0.401	0.453	0.854	7.81	3.98	1.41	9.55	6.11	3.11	1.96
89	47	3	Kansas	68.4%	9.3%	37.2%	0.283	0.370	0.382	0.752	5.62	3.50	1.28	8.95	5.71	2.57	2.22
267	126	4	Kent St.	78.7%	8.4%	42.3%	0.287	0.373	0.408	0.782	6.54	3.76	1.26	7.97	7.37	3.40	2.17

The Noles earned a national seed for the third season in a row and are playing great baseball the last two weeks of the season. They are hoping to get one of their best pitchers back in Brandon Leibrandt which would make this team even better than they look on paper. Georgia Southern looks to upset the Florida State as they are probably the best four seed in the tournament. There should be no questioning their offense but do they have the pitching to keep FSU off the score board enough times?

This is the regional that intrigues me the most, Louisville earned a host spot but they have one of the weakest schedules of all the top seeds. As much as I don't put stock into how a team performed in their conference tournament the Cards didn't win theirs and had a bad loss to USF on the way before being dominated in the final against Houston. The Wildcats have the best player and the best offense in the country, their pitching staff is suspect but they did have the 2nd most difficult schedule in the nation this season. My pick is Kentucky to advance and play the Noles in super regionals.

Lafayette Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
124	5	1	La.-Lafayette (6)	73.9%	9.5%	44.5%	0.317	0.407	0.500	0.907	7.93	3.43	1.22	7.99	7.13	3.03	2.35
25	32	2	Mississippi St.	71.1%	10.9%	33.1%	0.275	0.370	0.340	0.710	4.95	2.90	1.26	8.11	8.13	3.24	2.51
178	41	3	San Diego St.	72.0%	8.8%	38.9%	0.291	0.370	0.396	0.766	5.82	3.70	1.39	9.08	6.82	3.42	2.00
297	271	4	Jackson St.	70.3%	10.9%	40.6%	0.273	0.388	0.367	0.755	6.26	4.16	1.48	9.19	6.64	4.11	1.62
Oxford Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
37	14	1	Ole Miss	76.3%	7.6%	38.4%	0.303	0.370	0.417	0.787	6.08	2.76	1.21	8.23	7.17	2.63	2.73
160	24	2	Washington	70.9%	7.6%	38.6%	0.280	0.366	0.383	0.749	5.62	3.23	1.25	8.27	5.71	2.98	1.92
11	31	3	Georgia Tech	66.7%	8.2%	35.2%	0.279	0.353	0.379	0.731	5.08	3.28	1.38	8.34	7.38	4.10	1.80
97	91	4	Jacksonville St.	79.8%	9.7%	37.6%	0.294	0.372	0.423	0.795	6.15	4.61	1.50	9.42	6.27	4.03	1.55

The majority of college baseball fans are wondering just how legit the Rajin' Cajuns from Louisiana-Lafayette. Yes, they went 3-1 against teams with a RPI of 50 or better but that was almost three months ago and they have not really been tested playing in the 11th best conference and have only played one team who has made regionals. The Bulldogs could give ULL some issues as they are used to playing at the highest level, I'll go with the team that has put up ridiculous numbers all season but wouldn't be surprised if the Cajuns didn't advance.

Ole Miss was another national seed bubble team that just missed the cut but was rewarded with a host spot. The Yellow Jackets just won the ACC tournament winning five games and are playing extremely well and how will Washington adjust to the heat and humidity of the south will be a big question too. I think the strong Rebels offense and solid pitching staff will propel them to the next round.

Fort Worth Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
42	11	1	TCU (7)	68.1%	9.8%	35.1%	0.287	0.378	0.365	0.743	5.30	2.27	1.05	7.22	8.45	2.20	3.85
71	28	2	Dallas Baptist	75.4%	11.7%	39.5%	0.260	0.372	0.397	0.768	6.41	3.70	1.38	8.15	8.34	4.26	1.96
48	37	3	Sam Houston St.	80.6%	9.0%	37.7%	0.287	0.366	0.400	0.766	5.83	2.79	1.26	7.97	5.72	3.35	1.71
295	196	4	Siena	71.4%	9.3%	34.5%	0.264	0.355	0.324	0.679	4.61	5.40	1.63	10.74	5.51	3.91	1.41
San Luis Obispo Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
210	16	1	Cal Poly	65.5%	9.3%	38.3%	0.300	0.382	0.403	0.785	6.05	2.96	1.24	7.79	8.58	3.36	2.55
34	38	2	Arizona St.	73.9%	9.6%	37.4%	0.286	0.374	0.389	0.763	5.91	3.91	1.39	8.82	7.40	3.73	1.99
85	34	3	Pepperdine	72.9%	7.0%	38.4%	0.286	0.349	0.401	0.750	5.51	2.52	1.19	7.57	6.82	3.10	2.20
258	140	4	Sacramento St.	69.3%	8.6%	36.2%	0.286	0.357	0.390	0.748	5.36	3.21	1.25	7.95	5.27	3.30	1.60

The Horned Frogs won the Big 12 tournament and have lost only once since mid April. A lights out pitching staff that features three arms capable of shutting down any opponent makes this light bracket very winnable for Texas Christian.

The other team with big question marks surrounding them is Cal Poly who looks great on paper but makes you wonder if that is the product of a strong schedule. They do however play in a conference that produced four tournament teams in which the Mustangs went 6-3 against. The Sun Devils and Green Wave are no strangers to postseason baseball and quality seeds that are serious threats to win. Not sure I can go with two unknowns to advance, Ill take the three seed to advance from this regional.

Baton Rouge Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
87	9	1	LSU (8)	67.2%	9.2%	42.6%	0.286	0.368	0.416	0.784	6.36	2.42	1.08	6.90	7.21	2.82	2.56
14	10	2	Houston	75.5%	11.6%	34.6%	0.281	0.379	0.360	0.739	5.22	2.20	1.02	7.37	6.70	1.77	3.79
236	43	3	Bryant	82.9%	9.4%	41.7%	0.304	0.395	0.440	0.835	6.84	2.94	1.17	7.42	7.45	3.11	2.40
136	73	4	Southeastern La.	62.9%	9.7%	36.8%	0.291	0.387	0.361	0.748	5.75	2.95	1.27	8.67	6.76	2.76	2.45
Houston Regional
SOS	RPI	Seed	Name	SB%	BB%	Rsco%	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	R/G	ERA	WHIP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	K:BB
4	7	1	Rice	55.4%	8.5%	36.8%	0.294	0.364	0.388	0.752	5.54	2.55	1.19	7.60	7.65	3.08	2.48
3	12	2	Texas	85.7%	11.3%	32.1%	0.266	0.363	0.358	0.721	4.66	2.45	1.21	7.49	5.72	3.42	1.67
20	39	3	Texas A&M	75.9%	9.1%	36.3%	0.286	0.362	0.383	0.745	5.40	3.58	1.32	8.93	7.68	2.98	2.57
217	122	4	George Mason	69.6%	10.0%	33.0%	0.271	0.362	0.361	0.723	4.91	3.14	1.28	8.94	6.23	2.55	2.44

Louisiana State went from the possibility of not hosting to a national seed in just over a week. There is no better team in the country playing better baseball then them right now, their offense is tearing the cover off the ball and they have the best college pitcher in baseball. There isn't enough pitching from Houston or Bryant to stop the Tigers from winning in front of one of the best venues in college baseball.

The Houston regional feature some evenly matched teams with Rice being the host, the Owls had a successful season in a mediocre Conference USA. As usual they have an outstanding pitching staff as do the Longhorns but I am not completely sold on Rice despite their results. I think either of the winner of the two Texas teams takes this regional and as much as I dislike Garrido and his style of play they are my choice for this regional.

Overall I thought the committee did a good job of selecting the 64 teams, where they were placed and who they matched up with is still something that will always be debated until they start seeding 1-16 like every other sport does. To recap my 16 selections to advance from regional play are...

That makes 13 number one seeds, 2 number twos and 1 number three seed advancing to super regionals. So now that you have been presented with a vast amount of information and previews from multiple sources post your regional winners below.

Florida State Baseball and the Field of 64: Regional Stat Breakdown

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Corvallis Regional

Stillwater Regional

Charlottesville Regional

Columbia Regional

Bloomington Regional

Nashville Regional

Tallahassee Regional

Louisville Regional

Lafayette Regional

Oxford Regional

Fort Worth Regional

San Luis Obispo Regional

Baton Rouge Regional

Houston Regional

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Florida State Seminoles Regional Stream

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