How much turnover luck has Florida State had?

Florida State has not had an offensive turnover on the season. Its six-game streak without one is a Florida State record, and FSU is plus seven in the turnover margin column. But football scholars know that turnovers are partially luck.

So how lucky has Florida State been with turnovers? Not that lucky, as it turns out.

Florida State has had 11 of its passes broken up and zero intercepted. Typically, the ratio of passes broken up to interceptions would result in 2-3 interceptions and 8-9 passes broken up. The more important number here is the extremely low number of passes broken up overall. FSU has been very risk averse in its passing attack.

Offensively, Florida State has had three fumbles and recovered them all. Thanks to the oblong ball, fumble recoveries are luck and not skill, and FSU should have expected to lose 1-2 of these by a crude measure (of course, types of fumble, location, etc. impact recovery rates).

So offensively with neutral luck, it is safe to say that FSU should have had about four turnovers instead of zero. Four would still place FSU in the top five in the nation. This speaks to FSU protecting the ball in all facets and getting lucky.

It could be argued that Everett Golson has been lucky not to have fumbled on some of his scrambles, as the former point guard jukes out defenders in amazing but perhaps risky fashion. There's a good chance he'll lose a couple from getting hit during these escape acts, but he's been great at getting rid of the ball and not taking sacks, so this is acceptable risk.

Golson has also been lucky not to have any passes batted at the line, but FSU's defense has been unlucky that it hasn't had any of the passes it has tipped fall into its own defenders hands.

Defensively, FSU has been a bit unlucky, as it has 22 passes broken up and just four interceptions, which is 1-2 low. FSU fans can certainly pinpoint several dropped interceptions against Miami. FSU's fumble recovery luck on defense has been neutral.

On special teams, FSU has fumbled twice and recovered one, again, neutral.

According to Football Study Hall, FSU is receiving about 1.57 points per game of turnover luck, which is fairly neutral (40th out of 128). Georgia Tech is at 4.07 (11th), Florida at 2.15 (28th), Clemson at -3.4 (109), and Miami at an incredible 11.25 per game (1st, by a lot).