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FSU will open the Tallahassee Regional on Friday against the #4 seeded Mercer Bears (35-21, 16-7 SoCon). Here's a look at what the Bears do well -- and not as well -- as well as what challenges they may pose to the Seminoles.
#4 Seed - Mercer Bears (35-21, 16-7 SoCon)
After winning the SoCon regular-season title by 2.5 games, Mercer ran through the SoCon Tournament, winning all four games they played over The Citadel (twice), VMI, and Samford, with three of the four wins by five or more runs. The Bears are undoubtedly one of the stronger 4 seeds but benefited somewhat from the weak Southern Conference where the teams had an average ERA over 5.50 and an OPSa of .810, which makes Mercer's gaudy offensive numbers much more palatable. For reference the SEC/ACC had a league average ERA of ~3.80 and .690 on-base plus slugging against.
Offense
Mercer's team batting average of .288 (tied for 67th in the nation) is nothing to write home about and only two of their regular contributors have averages above .300 but there is one thing that the Bears do very well and it's a potential hazard for the Seminoles. On the season, Mercer batters have hit an astounding 69 home runs (3rd in NCAA) and over 60 games, that gives them 1.23 home runs per game, which is good for 2nd in the nation. Equally astonishing as the number of home-runs that they hit is the number of free outs they hand they other team, the Bears have 77 sacrifice bunts this season; only two other teams in the nation have more. The amount of small ball they play given their capability to hit the ball is remarkable and something opponents can take advantage of.
Kyle Lewis, starting center fielder for the Bears and 2015 SoCon Player of the Year leads the team in many offensive categories including home runs (17, T-6 in NCAA), batting average (.373, T-32 in NCAA), runs batted in (56), and slugging percentage (.691, 6th in NCAA). Devin Bonin, the starting second baseman for the Bears, is also a home run threat with 10 home runs on the season.
| MERCER BEARS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 SEASON STATISTICS - PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TEAM | POS. | BAT | GP | GS | PA | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | SBA | SB % | K% | BB% | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BABIP | IsoP | ||||||||||||
| Matt Meeder # | SS | R | 56 | 55 | 261 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | 12.6% | 17.6% | 0.295 | 0.466 | 0.405 | 0.871 | 0.348 | 0.111 | ||||||||||||
| Devin Bonin | 2B | L | 56 | 56 | 263 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | 14.4% | 8.7% | 0.290 | 0.364 | 0.471 | 0.835 | 0.309 | 0.181 | ||||||||||||
| Kyle Lewis % * | CF | R | 52 | 51 | 244 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 37.5% | 16.0% | 7.4% | 0.373 | 0.428 | 0.691 | 1.119 | 0.390 | 0.318 | ||||||||||||
| Danny Edgeworth | 3B | L | 56 | 56 | 249 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | 17.3% | 8.8% | 0.296 | 0.405 | 0.453 | 0.858 | 0.348 | 0.158 | ||||||||||||
| Jackson Ware $ | LF | R | 51 | 40 | 189 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 0.325 | 0.433 | 0.490 | 0.923 | 0.361 | 0.166 | ||||||||||||
| Nate Moorhouse | DH | L | 54 | 53 | 229 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 19.2% | 10.5% | 0.274 | 0.397 | 0.436 | 0.833 | 0.338 | 0.162 | ||||||||||||
| Howard Joe | 1B | R | 56 | 56 | 248 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 16.9% | 7.7% | 0.273 | 0.335 | 0.414 | 0.748 | 0.312 | 0.141 | ||||||||||||
| Charlie Madden | C | R | 56 | 55 | 235 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 20.4% | 11.1% | 0.258 | 0.350 | 0.474 | 0.824 | 0.297 | 0.216 | ||||||||||||
| Trey Truitt $ | RF | R | 54 | 51 | 207 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | 28.0% | 12.6% | 0.287 | 0.384 | 0.511 | 0.896 | 0.385 | 0.224 | ||||||||||||
| TOTALS | 491 | 473 | 2125 | 109 | 9 | 67 | 26 | 43 | 60.5% | 17.4% | 10.6% | 0.297 | 0.396 | 0.484 | 0.880 | 0.341 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||||
| % - Conf. Player of the Year *- 1st Team All Conf. # - 2nd Team All Conf. $ -All Conf. Freshmen | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Pitching
Eric Nyquist, the ace for the Bears, will start Friday against FSU and he brings with him the most wins and 3rd-best ERA on the team (best among regular starters) with a 9-2 record and a 3.22 ERA. Nyquist holds opponents to a .230 batting average and has allowed just 4 home runs in 86.2 innings this season. In his most recent outing, Nyquist threw a 6-hit shutout in Mercer's 5-0 win over Samford in the SoCon Championship.
The Bears also have a pair of dangerous arms in the bullpen. In 59.2 innings of relief work this year, Morgan Pittman has a 2.56 ERA and has struck out nearly one batter per inning with 59 strikeouts on the season. Pittman also avoids extra-base hits incredibly well as 49 of the 57 hits he has allowed this season are singles. Dimitri Kourtis, another Mercer reliever, has the best ERA on the team at 2.20 through his 28.2 innings of work. Kourtis holds opponents to a .158 batting average and strikes out more than one batter per inning on average. Should the Seminoles face Mercer more than once, their starting pitchers after Nyquist are much easier to handle. DJ Johnson has a 6.58 ERA and Grant Papelian is not much better at 4.90.
| MERCER BEARS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 SEASON STATISTICS - PITCHERS OF NOTE WITH SEASON TOTALS IN BOLD | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| PLAYER | THROW | G | GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 | K:BB | FIP | BABIP | BAA | OPSa | |||||||||||||||
| Eric Nyquist * | RHP | 18 | 15 | 86.7 | 3.22 | 1.17 | 7.58 | 7.17 | 2.91 | 2.46 | 3.57 | 0.278 | 0.230 | 0.602 | |||||||||||||||
| Grant Papelian | LHP | 20 | 12 | 68.0 | 4.90 | 1.72 | 12.18 | 4.37 | 3.31 | 1.32 | 5.66 | 0.340 | 0.327 | 0.869 | |||||||||||||||
| Morgan Pittman # | LHP | 27 | 0 | 59.7 | 2.56 | 1.31 | 8.60 | 8.90 | 3.17 | 2.81 | 3.52 | 0.319 | 0.250 | 0.645 | |||||||||||||||
| DJ Johnson | RHP | 23 | 8 | 52.0 | 6.58 | 1.58 | 10.73 | 9.00 | 3.46 | 2.60 | 4.94 | 0.346 | 0.291 | 0.835 | |||||||||||||||
| Ryan Askew | RHP | 17 | 11 | 49.3 | 6.75 | 1.76 | 12.59 | 5.66 | 3.28 | 1.72 | 4.88 | 0.370 | 0.332 | 0.848 | |||||||||||||||
| TOTALS | 233 | 56 | 494.0 | 4.55 | 1.44 | 10.04 | 7.31 | 2.90 | 2.52 | 4.32 | 0.328 | 0.282 | 0.749 | ||||||||||||||||
| % - Conf. Pitcher of the Year *- 1st Team All Conf. # - 2nd Team All Conf. $ -All Conf. Freshmen | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Defense and Baserunning
The Mercer Bears enter the Tallahassee Regional with a fielding percentage of .974, the best of all four teams. Kyle Lewis, the aforementioned slugger, has a perfect 1.000% fielding percentage as he has 139 putouts and 1 assist . Charlie Madden, the everyday catcher for the Bears, has the second best fielding percentage on the team (.992%) with 3 errors in 381 opportunities. At the other end of the spectrum, Matt Meeder, the starting Mercer shortstop, has one of the lowest fielding percentages of any starting player in this regional at .923% with 20 errors committed, tied for the most of any player competing in this regional.
With regard to baserunning, Mercer is a very run-of-the-mill team, successfully stealing 27 bases in 44 attempts this season (61.4% success rate). No single player has attempted more than 8 steals or stolen more than 5 successfully. However, the Bears are not as adept at stopping opponents from stealing as they have allowed 63 stolen bases in 85 attempts this season (74.1%), something that FSU can use to its advantage.
Outlook
FSU will be favored in their opening matchup against Mercer. Eric Nyquist and Kyle Lewis are the two potential "x-factors" for the Bears who could take the game over and create deja-vu from last season for Florida State fans but if the Seminoles continue at the breakneck pace that they competed at throughout the ACC Championship, the 'Noles should be able to take care of business against Mercer.