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Florida State football in the AP Poll

A look at how well the preseason AP Poll has forecasted Florida State's season in the Jimbo Fisher era.

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Update: Florida State is 10th in the AP Poll. Opponents Clemson (12th) and Georgia Tech (16th) are also ranked.

The preseason AP poll drops later Sunday, and with it we'll get a sense of just what the national media thinks of 2015 Florida State football. The coaches have already spoken, but, since Jimbo Fisher took over as the head coach at FSU, the preseason AP poll has been a better indicator of where the Seminoles will finish, if only slightly.

In Fisher's first season of 2010, the ‘Noles began ranked 20th but finished at No. 17. The next two seasons, they slid, dropping from No. 6 to No. 23 in 2011, and from No. 7 to No. 10 in 2012. After being ranked No. 11 to commence the 2013 campaign, FSU finished atop everyone's ballot, of course, after posting a perfect season and winning a national championship. And that's right where the Seminoles began 2014—they finished tied for fifth (with Michigan State).

So how accurate has the preseason AP poll been in predicting Florida State's fortune under Fisher? Aggregately, pretty spot on. As an average, the ‘Noles finish 1.4 spots off their preseason AP billing, compared to a 1.8 differential in the USA Today Coaches Poll.