Gameday Central: Bye Week and Upsets?

Florida State has an early bye week to recover. They need to heal, and more importantly, need the practice before taking on Wake and then rival Miami. Seriously. A lot of practice. But, that means you get to sit back, relax and watch all the other teams.

True, at first glance, today's games have a certain, 'eh' feeling to them. However, what might look like leftover meatloaf, could very well end with a perfectly smoked brisket of playoff contender failure. The following are games to keep an eye on for possible upsets. Upset probability is displayed with the Grainy-Screen-Captured-McElwain-Rage-Face-O-Meter. The more there are, the more likely the upset. Because this is science.

#2 TCU at Texas Tech

The number two team in the country takes on an unranked team, so yawn. BUT NO. TCU has struggled early in the year, squeaking by Minnesota and giving up a boatload of points to SMU. But pollsters gonna poll. So you have the #2 team in the country as a 5.5-6 point favorite on the road.

UPSET PROBABILITY:

#11 UCLA at #16 Arizona

UCLA is coming off a close win against an, admittedly, good BYU team. They just edge out Arizona as a 2.5 point favorite. Tough victories can sometimes have a negative impact the following week. Make it a conference foe on the road?

UPSET PROBABILITY:

#17 Utah at #13 Oregon

No, Oregon isn't Marcus Mariota and Ducks anymore. And it has shown. They are now 2-2 in their last 4 games. But it isn't just struggles on offense that are causing Oregon trouble. The defense is giving up 5.93 yards a play. That's good enough for 96th in the country (includes a game against GEORGIA STATE). Utah is a decent team at 3-0 including a win against Michigan (does this mean anything anymore?). But still, it's Utah, in Eugene, 10.5 point dog.

UPSET PROBABILITY:

#15 Texas A&M at Arkansas

Arkansas is a statistical oddity. As Bud noted on the twitters, Arkansas doesn't punt. They also don't score. However they are struggling to make other teams punt too, as in zero punts for Texas Tech. The Hogs had 515 yards of offense and 12 (TWELVE) points in a loss to Toledo. If Arkansas can finally figure out how to find the end zone and play some ball control, Texas A&M might be in trouble.

UPSET PROBABILITY:

#18 USC at Arizona State

Oh sure, Lane Kiffin is gone, but USC's troubles are not. They simply don't have the depth yet. So they were, let's say, a bit over ranked before being upset by 1 loss Stanford. They get to recover, on the road. Would anyone be surprised if the Trojans go from top 10 to out of the top 25 by week 4? No. No one.

UPSET PROBABILITY:

#20 Georgia Tech at Duke

Both teams are coming off (*checks notes*) upset losses. Tech looked like they forgot how to run the option against Notre Dame. Duke collapsed late in a close contest against Northwestern. Good news! An ACC team will win this one! Georgia Tech is supposed to win this as a 7.5 point favorite. But just how crushing was loss to the Irish. Duke's defense will probably help the Jackets find their rhythm.

UPSET PROBABILITY:

#22 Oklahoma State at Texas

Texas is not good at football. It appears the 'fire all the players and start from scratch' method is going to take a while for Charlie Strong. You would think 3-0 Oklahoma State would be a heavy favorite. They aren't because, well, they have played 3 horrible teams (Central Michigan, Central Arkansas, and  Central Texas San Antonio). At only a 3 point dog, at home, maybe Strong gets that 'upset.'

UPSET PROBABILITY:

#23 Missouri at Kentucky

Missouri is the only SEC team that doesn't seem to get the "UNDEFEATED TOP 5" treatment. Maybe, just maybe, pollsters watched them beat Connecticut and Arkansas State by a combined 10 points. But is Missouri still overrated? Um, perhaps. Kentucky is the three point favorite. An upset means the top 25 teams needs to win.

UPSET PROBABILITY:

Mississippi State at #25 Auburn

Surely Auburn was mentally looking ahead to the LSU game when escaping Jacksonville State in overtime. Or, OR, War Damn Eagle in a World of Damn Hurt. Leonard Fournette came to town and erased Auburn. Yes, that's the right word. Auburn will have to pencil themselves back in for another conference match-up. They are a 2.5 point favorite against Mississippi State. Win here, and they can continue to be over-ranked.

UPSET PROBABILITY

BONUS: Tennessee at Florida

Florida looked like, well, Florida last week against Kentucky. They beat Kentucky just like they've been beating Kentucky - CLOSELY. Florida still has a great defense, but their offense has gotten worse each week (yards per play week 1-3, 7.67, 5.92, 4.15). Tennessee will be the best defense UF has faced this year, probably by a lot. Tennessee got to shake off that collapse against Oklahoma with a stomping of Western Carolina. Almost have to take Tennessee here, just because they aren't coming off a difficult, close win. The spread is...ZERO, THE CURRENT SPREAD IS ZERO.

UPSET PROBABILITY:

Outside of upset watch, you need to make sure you are cheering for the right teams to fail. FSU will need all the help they can get this year to make it to the post season playoff. Also, if you are into gambling (you are, you know you are) check out this week's best picks. Click here so you know what all of today's spreads are.

Week 4 Games, Times, and Networks:

12:00 PM	BYU at Michigan	ABC / espn3
12:00 PM	Central Michigan at Michigan State	BTN / BTN2Go Video
12:00 PM	Georgia Tech at Duke	ESPN2 / WatchESPN
12:00 PM	Kansas at Rutgers	BTN / BTN2Go Video
12:00 PM	LSU at Syracuse	ESPN / WatchESPN
12:00 PM	Southern Miss at Nebraska	ESPN News / WatchESPN
12:00 PM	UCF at South Carolina	ESPNU / WatchESPN
12:30 PM	Indiana at Wake Forest	ESPN Extra / ACC Network / espn3
3:00 PM	Maryland at West Virginia	FS1 / FS Go Video
3:00 PM	Rice at Baylor	FSN Affiliates / FS Go Video
3:30 PM	North Texas at Iowa	ESPNU / WatchESPN
3:30 PM	Ohio at Minnesota	BTN / BTN2Go Video
3:30 PM	Oklahoma State at Texas	ESPN / WatchESPN
3:30 PM	San Diego State at Penn State	BTN / BTN2Go Video
3:30 PM	Tennessee at Florida	CBS / CBS Video
3:30 PM	UMass at Notre Dame	NBC / NBC Video
3:30 PM	Virginia Tech at East Carolina	ABC/ESPN2 / ESPN Extra
3:30 PM	Western Michigan at Ohio State	ABC/ESPN2 / espn3
4:00 PM	California at Washington	PAC-12 Network / PAC-12 Video
4:00 PM	Louisiana Monroe at Alabama	SEC Network / WatchESPN
4:00 PM	Middle Tennessee at Illinois	ESPN News / WatchESPN
4:00 PM	Northern Arizona at Montana	RSNW
4:45 PM	TCU at Texas Tech	FOX / FS Go Video
7:00 PM	Arkansas vs. Texas A&M	ESPN / WatchESPN / espn3 Skycam
7:00 PM	Arkansas State at Toledo	ESPN Extra / espn3
7:00 PM	Vanderbilt at Ole Miss	ESPNU / WatchESPN
7:30 PM	Mississippi State at Auburn	ESPN2 / WatchESPN
7:30 PM	Missouri at Kentucky	SEC Network / WatchESPN
8:00 PM	Ball State at Northwestern	BTN (alternate) / BTN2Go Video
8:00 PM	Hawaii at Wisconsin	BTN / BTN2Go Video
8:00 PM	Texas State at Houston	ESPN Extra / espn3
8:00 PM	UCLA at Arizona	ABC / espn3 (also in Spanish)
8:45 PM	Utah at Oregon	FOX / FS Go Video
10:30 PM	Fresno State at San Jose State	CBSSN
10:30 PM	USC at Arizona State	ESPN / WatchESPN