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Florida State football podcast: 4th down decisions, QB play and playoff picture

The Nolecast discusses the playoff picture, 4th down decisions and the quarterback position.

Ingram Smith and Bud Elliott return once again to discuss Florida State football with another edition of the Nolecast

We open with a dissection of Jimbo Fisher's press conference comments, noting that Fisher has a lot of nice things to say about backup QB Sean Maguire. Then we shift to talk about the Florida State receivers, and wonder if Jimbo Fisher needs to weight playmaking ability from the young big guys slightly more than he does currently, even if they are not practicing all that well. This offense will not be pretty in 2015, and big plays are at a premium.

Some quick notes on practice about the offensive line, and then it is a shift to discussion of Butch Jones decisions against Florida. Jimbo Fisher has badly bungled some situations like this in the past, but so far in 2015 has been solid.

In the chart below, using the 4th down calculator on Advanced NFL Stats, I calculated the net expected points of Fisher's decisions to punt or kick field goals, as well as the net win percentage of his calls. So far, Fisher has not made a decision that was expected to cost his Seminoles more than a full point or a full percentage. Granted, this is an NFL chart, and college's high-point environment dictates that punting and field goals are much worse calls, but grading the super conservative Jimbo Fisher on a conservative curve helps to point out only the most egregious of failures.

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After, we shift discussions to the collapses at Oregon and Auburn, and debate who will be back quicker.

Plus, what does the playoff picture look like? Neither of us believe this 2015 FSU team is national championship quality, but until FSU loses, it makes sense to continue discussing the playoff.