Clemson vs Florida State: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Clemson Tigers (7-0) vs. Florida State Seminoles (5-2)

October 29, 2016 (8:00 pm ET, ABC)

Spread: Clemson -4

S&P+ Projection: Clemson (32.7 - 24.7)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Clemson		Florida State
S&P+ (Rk)	4		14
Category	Clemson offense	Florida State defense	Florida State offense	Clemson defense
Yards per play (Rk)	6.06 (28)	6.13 (117)	5.92 (39)	3.99 (2)
Yards per game (Rk)	485.1 (23)	401.7 (64)	477.4 (30)	301.1 (11)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.67 (33)	2.20 (76)	2.62 (35)	1.11 (5)
Category	Clemson offense	Florida State defense	Florida State offense	Clemson defense
S&P+ (Rk)	36.8 (24)	26.5 (46)	40.5 (8)	11.0 (2)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	112.5 (39)	112.6 (29)	122.3 (14)	124.1 (13)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	136.9 (5)	112.9 (25)	132.6 (8)	145.8 (3)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	127.5 (3)	114.9 (20)	120.6 (12)	121.9 (12)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	125.0 (26)	106.9 (45)	148.7 (4)	167.3 (4)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	128.0 (18)	107.5 (49)	143.9 (4)	191.3 (1)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	162.5 (1)	101.5 (66)	113.6 (37)	133.9 (14)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	113.0 (37)	143.1 (7)	134.1 (13)	140.7 (9)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	115.2 (25)	101.3 (59)	115.4 (22)	107.3 (43)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Clemson

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 21 defense vs. No. 97 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 28 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 5 defense vs. No. 77 offense)
4. Third Down S&P+ (No. 6 offense vs. No. 76 defense)
5. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 20 defense vs. No. 89 offense)

Florida State

1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 53 defense vs. No. 125 offense)
2. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
3. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 9 defense vs. No. 37 offense)
4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 29 defense vs. No. 39 offense)
5. Q3 S&P+ (No. 6 vs. No. 14 )

Five Factors

Category	Clemson offense	Florida State defense	Florida State offense	Clemson defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.22 (86)	1.38 (111)	1.26 (65)	1.19 (39)
EFFICIENCY	47.0% (19)	41.0% (57)	49.9% (8)	34.9% (12)
FIELD POSITION	33.6 (14)	29.1 (68)	29.9 (60)	29.0 (67)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.7 (69)	5.1 (95)	4.5 (80)	3.1 (3)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Clemson 0.23 (65) Florida State -3.00 (106)		ACTUAL Clemson 0 (55) Florida State 6 (17)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Clemson offense	Florida State offense
Adj. Pace	3.7 (38)	4.7 (26)
Plays per game	80.0 (29)	80.7 (21)
Possessions per game	13.7 (31)	13.3 (50)
Std. Downs Run Rate	50.2% (112)	60.3% (66)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	29.1% (95)	23.9% (115)
% of solo tackles	73.5% (70)	78.0% (34)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Clemson defense	Florida State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	54.9% (99)	53.5% (111)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	33.6% (72)	28.4% (107)
Overall Havoc Rate	21.6% (6)	16.6% (52)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	13.1% (12)	10.1% (44)
DB Havoc Rate	8.5% (13)	6.3% (68)
PD to INC	37.6% (31)	30.6% (87)

When Clemson has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Clemson Offense		Florida State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	127.5	3	114.9	20	Clemson
Standard Downs Success Rate	51.1	26	45.7	57	Clemson
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.14	55	1.09	116	Clemson big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.03	53	3.08	87	Clemson
SD Sack Rate	3.8%	37	9.4%	9	Florida State

Passing Downs

	Clemson Offense		Florida State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	125.0	26	106.9	45	Clemson
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.9	25	31.9	78	Clemson big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.56	104	1.59	65	Florida State
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.91	19	3.16	67	Clemson
PD Sack Rate	0%	1	12%	13	Clemson

When Florida State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Florida State Offense		Clemson Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	120.6	12	121.9	12
Standard Downs Success Rate	52.1	19	42.3	25
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.18	33	1.26	63	Florida State
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.94	71	2.56	25	Clemson
SD Sack Rate	6%	89	7.9%	20	Clemson big

Passing Downs

	Florida State Offense		Clemson Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	148.7	4	167.3	4
Passing Downs Success Rate	44.4	4	20.9	8
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.50	117	1.73	25	Clemson big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.95	17	2.44	20
PD Sack Rate	10.1%	97	11.2%	21	Clemson big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Clemson	Deshaun Watson	6'3, 215	JR	164	258	1950	20	8	63.6%	5	1.9%	7.3
Clemson	Nick Schuessler	6'4, 200	SR	8	12	126	1	0	66.7%	1	7.7%	9.1
Clemson	Kelly Bryant	6'3, 215	SO	4	5	27	1	0	80.0%	1	16.7%	4.0
Florida State	Deondre Francois	6'2, 205	FR	138	221	1876	10	3	62.4%	19	7.9%	7.2
Florida State	J.J. Cosentino	6'5, 230	SO	2	9	19	1	0	22.2%	1	10.0%	1.4
Florida State	Sean Maguire	6'3, 232	SR	1	2	6	0	1	50.0%	1	33.3%	-1.3

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Clemson	Wayne Gallman	RB	6'0, 210	JR	90	489	5	5.4	3.9	45.6%
Clemson	Deshaun Watson	QB	6'3, 215	JR	66	309	1	4.7	3.1	42.4%
Clemson	Adam Choice	RB	5'9, 210	SO	25	78	0	3.1	2.0	32.0%
Clemson	C.J. Fuller	RB	5'10, 215	SO	23	82	0	3.6	1.5	26.1%
Florida State	Dalvin Cook	RB	5'11, 213	JR	159	900	7	5.7	5.6	40.9%
Florida State	Deondre Francois	QB	6'2, 205	FR	48	300	3	6.3	9.1	37.5%
Florida State	Jacques Patrick	RB	6'2, 231	SO	44	279	3	6.3	6.8	38.6%
Florida State	Freddie Stevenson	FB	6'1, 241	SR	8	19	3	2.4	4.0	25.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Clemson	Mike Williams	WR	6'3, 225	JR	60	39	578	4	14.8	9.6	65.0%
Clemson	Ray-Ray McCloud	WR	5'10, 180	SO	40	32	339	2	10.6	8.5	80.0%
Clemson	Artavis Scott	WR	5'10, 190	JR	40	27	251	2	9.3	6.3	67.5%
Clemson	Deon Cain	WR	6'1, 210	SO	26	15	255	6	17.0	9.8	57.7%
Clemson	Jordan Leggett	TE	6'5, 260	SR	25	15	232	3	15.5	9.3	60.0%
Clemson	Hunter Renfrow	WR	5'11, 180	SO	15	10	115	2	11.5	7.7	66.7%
Clemson	Cornell Powell	WR	6'0, 200	FR	14	11	76	0	6.9	5.4	78.6%
Florida State	Jesus Wilson	WR	5'10, 184	SR	53	30	390	1	13.0	7.4	56.6%
Florida State	Travis Rudolph	WR	6'1, 192	JR	50	32	497	3	15.5	9.9	64.0%
Florida State	Dalvin Cook	RB	5'11, 213	JR	31	22	381	1	17.3	12.3	71.0%
Florida State	Kermit Whitfield	WR	5'8, 182	SR	30	19	190	1	10.0	6.3	63.3%
Florida State	Ryan Izzo	TE	6'5, 245	SO	16	13	155	1	11.9	9.7	81.2%
Florida State	Auden Tate	WR	6'5, 225	SO	15	8	118	4	14.8	7.9	53.3%
Florida State	Nyqwan Murray	WR	5'11, 176	SO	9	5	46	0	9.2	5.1	55.6%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Clemson	Van Smith	S	5'11, 195	SO	48.5	12.1%	4.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
Clemson	Ben Boulware	LB	6'0, 235	SR	43.0	10.8%	4.0	1.0	1	1	2	0
Clemson	Kendall Joseph	LB	6'0, 230	SO	39.0	9.8%	6.0	1.0	1	0	1	0
Clemson	Jadar Johnson	S	6'0, 210	SR	23.5	5.9%	0.0	0.0	3	6	0	0
Clemson	Christian Wilkins	DL	6'4, 310	SO	22.5	5.6%	8.5	3.0	0	4	0	0
Clemson	Dexter Lawrence	DT	6'5, 340	FR	22.5	5.6%	4.5	2.0	0	1	0	1
Clemson	Cordrea Tankersley	CB	6'1, 200	SR	20.0	5.0%	4.0	0.0	0	6	0	0
Clemson	Dorian O'Daniel	LB	6'1, 215	JR	20.0	5.0%	4.0	1.5	1	1	0	0
Clemson	Carlos Watkins	DT	6'3, 305	SR	17.5	4.4%	4.5	4.5	0	1	0	0
Clemson	Clelin Ferrell	DE	6'5, 265	FR	15.0	3.8%	4.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Clemson	Ryan Carter	DB	5'9, 180	JR	12.0	3.0%	4.5	1.0	0	3	0	0
Clemson	Marcus Edmond	CB	6'0, 175	JR	12.0	3.0%	0.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
Clemson	Scott Pagano	DT	6'3, 295	JR	10.5	2.6%	3.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Florida State	Matthew Thomas	LB	6'3, 227	JR	29.0	9.1%	3.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Florida State	Trey Marshall	DB	6'0, 210	JR	28.5	9.0%	2.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Florida State	DeMarcus Walker	DE	6'4, 280	SR	25.5	8.0%	9.0	8.5	0	0	3	0
Florida State	Jacob Pugh	LB	6'4, 229	JR	18.5	5.8%	3.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Florida State	Marcus Lewis	DB	6'1, 190	SO	18.5	5.8%	1.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
Florida State	Ro'Derrick Hoskins	LB	6'2, 240	JR	18.0	5.7%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Florida State	Nate Andrews	DB	6'0, 214	SR	15.5	4.9%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Florida State	Derrick Nnadi	DT	6'1, 312	JR	14.5	4.6%	4.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Florida State	Josh Sweat	DE	6'5, 250	SO	12.0	3.8%	3.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Florida State	Walvenski Aime	DT	6'5, 300	SO	12.0	3.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Florida State	Marquez White	DB	6'0, 184	SR	11.0	3.5%	0.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Florida State	Dontavious Jackson	LB	6'2, 249	FR	10.5	3.3%	3.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Florida State	Derwin James	DB	6'3, 211	SO	10.0	3.1%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Clemson	Andy Teasdall	5'11, 190	SR	28	38.4	2	13	12	89.3%
Clemson	Carson King	6'0, 215	FR	1	37.0	0	0	0	0.0%
Florida State	Logan Tyler	6'0, 201	FR	27	42.3	1	6	5	40.7%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Clemson	Greg Huegel	5'11, 195	SO	41	58.3	21	51.2%	0	2	0	0
Clemson	Alex Spence	6'1, 195	SO	5	59.8	1	20.0%	0	0	0	0
Florida State	Logan Tyler	6'0, 201	FR	50	64.4	33	66.0%	0	0	0	0
Florida State	Ricky Aguayo	6'2, 196	FR	1	50.0	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Clemson	Greg Huegel	5'11, 195	SO	30-31	8-10	80.0%
Florida State	Ricky Aguayo	6'2, 196	FR	28-28	14-19	73.7%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Clemson	Artavis Scott	5'10, 190	JR	10	25.5	0	0	0 (0)
Clemson	Tavien Feaster	5'11, 210	FR	7	20.1	0	0	0 (0)
Florida State	Kermit Whitfield	5'8, 182	SR	17	24.6	0	0	0 (0)
Florida State	Amir Rasul	5'10, 196	FR	1	11.0	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Clemson	Ray-Ray McCloud	5'10, 180	SO	14	12.3	0	18	4 (2)
Clemson	Amir Trapp	5'8, 160	FR	2	2.5	0	1	1 (0)
Florida State	Jesus Wilson	5'10, 184	SR	9	17.2	1	10	1 (0)
Florida State	Nyqwan Murray	5'11, 176	SO	0	0.0	0	4	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}

You'll note, to begin, that the S&P+ projects Clemson to win by eight, double the conventional point spread presently being offered in Vegas. Why? The advanced metrics included above provide the answers. Let's take a look at some highlights:

Much has been made this season about Florida State's SOS, or strength of schedule, as the 'Noles have played one of the toughest slates in the country. It only gets tougher against the Tigers, or course, but a different SOS will be imperative for the Seminoles on Saturday: staying on schedule.

All too often this year, FSU has moved the ball well, but without cashing in. Consider the beginning of the North Carolina game. The 'Noles gouged the Heels for chunk plays repeatedly and looked like they could run UNC out of the building. However, mistakes -- penalties, sacks -- forced Florida State into obvious passing downs, rendering them one-dimensional and predictable, which allows the defense to pin its ears back and often winds up with QB Deondre Francois lying on his.

This could spell disaster against Clemson, which holds its biggest advantage over FSU in passing-down sack rate, due to a front four capable of getting pressure on their own, allowing the Tigers' defense to drop seven into coverage and account for the country's No. 13 DB Havoc Rate. Three of Clemson's five biggest advantages over Florida State, across the board, involve sacking Francois.

If FSU is able to stay on schedule, converting on third and short will be of the utmost importance in this year's matchup. And while the Seminoles' shortcomings in that category helped seal last year's defeat in Death Valley, this season's game in Tallahassee sees the 'Noles with their largest advantage in short-yardage rushing against Clemson. And unlike most contests, when we stress FSU's need to play at a greater speed to lengthen the game, that's not the case here. Clemson is the better team, and the more FSU can churn out first downs to eat clock, flip the field, and wear down the formidable Tigers' DL, the better.

If the 'Noles are able to hang around -- or even win -- this one, explosive plays from QB Deondre Francois may well be the answer, and not just those from his arm. Everyone knows about the running prowess of Deshaun Watson, but his highlight yard average (those yards gained after the line has done its job) of 3.1 pale in comparison to Francois' 9.1. We'll see if Head Coach Jimbo Fisher has schemed anything special up to utilize Francois' elusiveness-- maybe something like the opening-play option touchdown Everett Golson ran with Dalvin Cook against Miami last year.

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