FSU basketball’s NCAA Tourney chances improving

The 6-1 Florida State men’s hoops team may have dropped its ranking after suffering its first loss of the season on Thanksgiving, but its NCAA Tournament stock continues to ascend.

In fact, the Seminoles’ seed has improved every single week in ESPN bracketlogist Joe Lunardi’s projections. His initial field was released on Nov. 3, and included the ‘Noles as a 12-seed in the Midwest Region, opening play against 5-seed Cincinnati in Salt Lake City. His next projection came out on No. 17, and FSU moved up to an 11-seed in the South, drawing 6-seed Dayton for a matchup in Milwaukee. On the 24th, Florida State rose to a 10-seed in the Midwest and a date with 7-seed Rhode Island in Orlando, which would be a de facto home court for the Seminoles.

Lunardi’s latest projections were released on Thursday, and the ‘Noles vaulted another two spots to an 8-seed. Their latest opponent is predicted as 9-seed USC, at the Midwest’s Tulsa venue.

TeamRankings.com has FSU most likely to make the tourney as a 9-seed, but their likelihood belies the level of variance involved in making the big dance at all. Their projections, which are based on simulations, give Florida State a 43% chance of making the tournament-- along with a 1% chance of cracking the Final Four and a .1% shot at winning the whole thing. These are fun numbers to keep up with, as they’re actually updated daily, given not only the Seminoles’ performances but those of their past and future opponents.