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FSU basketball’s NCAA Tournament projections rise—and fall

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Call it a wash.

NCAA Basketball: Samford at Florida State Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

The long haul that makes up the college basketball season is composed of ups and downs for every team. And sometimes, as is the case with No. 21 ‘Nole hoops this week, fortune smiles and frowns at you concurrently.

That’s because, depending upon the source, FSU’s NCAA Tourney chances are either increasing or decreasing. ESPN’s resident bracketologist Joe Lunardi again elevated the Seminoles’ projected seed in the Big Dance, moving Florida State from a seven seed a week ago to the six line this week. He has the ‘Noles opening play against 11-seed Middle Tennessee State at the Midwest Region’s Salt Lake City.

TeamRankings.com, however, has FSU heading in the other direction. Their simulations still give the Seminoles a 75% chance of making the Tournament, but that’s actually down from 82% a week ago. Their Final Four chances fell, too, from 4.6% to 3.1%, and their shot at a national championship dipped from 0.6% to 0.4%. TeamRankings.com agrees with Lunardi that the ‘Noles are a 6-seed right now, but that is a slight drop from being projected as a 5-seed last week.