It's easy to look ahead. How many games in the ACC tournament does FSU need to win in order to dance? Could they make a miracle run to their 3rd ACC finals in eight years? But the reality is that you just have to take one game at a time. The Noles could get bounced by Boston College. Or Virginia Tech.
The only thing that matters come tournament time is putting away the next opponent.
In this case, the next opponent is terrible. Boston College has lost 18 straight games (all in the ACC), and only three of the 18 losses were by single-digit deficits. They lost close games at home to North Carolina and Georgia Tech, and nearly beat NC State on the road. Every other game was by 10 or more.
When FSU beat them by 10 in Chestnut Hill, the Noles made just 29% of their 3s while BC made 42% of theirs. If FSU doesn't lose the 3-point lottery, then this one shouldn't be very close.
Stopping BC largely means stopping 5th year senior Eli Carter. He averages 15.8 per game, but for whatever reason takes half his attempts from the arc where he's just a 28% shooter. In the final two games of the season he combined to go 0-17 from deep. Still, he can get hot and keep the Eagles in games.
Freshman Jerome Robinson isn't the most efficient guy either, but he's the other player in double figures (11.9). The first time these two teams played, Robinson made 3-4 3s on his way to 15 points. He's a good wing though, and has a bright future.
Overall, Boston College features the worst offense of any high major school, ranking 332nd in offensive efficiency. Defensively they are 98th, and do a decent job forcing turnovers and rebounding.
Should FSU advance, they'll play Virginia Tech in the 9 PM slot on Wednesday.
FSU and BC are scheduled to tip on Tuesday at 2 PM (though it will likely be 15-30 minutes later than that), and the game will be broadcast on ESPN2 and the ACC network. The Noles are 13-point favorites.