FSU basketball’s NCAA Tournament projection: elite status

Florida State basketball fans have really taken to this weekly piece. And aside from the stellar writing, it’s probably because, the vast majority of the time, the Seminoles’ NCAA Tournament projections have improved from the previous week. Well, this time around, there’s good news and bad news on that front. On the upside, FSU’s seeding projection took another jump this week. On the other hand, there’s only so much more improving to be done.

Of course, that’s because the ‘Noles have now risen all the way up to a 2-seed in ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s most recent projection of the tourney field, updated today. Lunardi has Florida State opening play against 15-seed Georgia Southern in the Midwest Region and, for the third straight week, playing its first two games in Orlando. FSU is the highest seeded ACC team, per Lunardi, with Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina holding 3-seeds. The Seminoles have beaten both the Cavaliers and Blue Devils already this season, and will travel to take on the Tar Heels this Saturday.

TeamRankings.com shares in Lunardi’s optimism, albeit with a bit more tempered enthusiasm. That site’s simulations have the ‘Noles improved from a most likely seed of 5 to a 4, while FSU’s overall chance of making the Big Dance rose from 94% to a near lock at 99%. Florida State’s Final Four chances also got a bump, from 5.7% to 8.4%, and its national title chances climbed from 0.8% to 1.3%.