For the first time in a very long time the FSU baseball team finds itself on the bubble of the NCAA tournament. If the ’Noles drop the weekend series to Loiusville, as they almost assuredly will, they will find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.
However, all is not lost. The main issue FSU has is its 12-14 conference record (before the Louisville series) but with a single win against Louisville and a win or 2 in the conference tournament the Seminoles will at least have a respectable ACC record.
On the down side their resume is similar to last year’s North Carolina team that did not make the tournament. On a more positive note, it’s also similar to a whole host of other ACC teams from years past that did make the tournament. Furthermore, UNC did not make the ACC Tournament while FSU has already clinched a spot (the tournament was expanded to 12 teams after UNC failed to make it).
St John’s: The Big East is likely a 1 bid league this year and league leader St John’s is probably that bid. However, if they get upset in their conference tournament the Big East becomes a 2 bid team, meaning 1 less spot for FSU.
UConn: The Huskies have flirted all year with the post season and with a win over USF last weekend their odds are looking good. UConn finishes up with a struggling ECU team and will have more games to impress in the AAC tournament.
Miami (FL): The U currently sits 25-26 (its win against St Thomas does not count for post season eligibility) and closes with Virginia Tech. A series win puts the Hurricanes above .500 but they’ll need to maintain that winning percentage through the conference tournament. Miami is not likely to make the postseason either way but there is an outside possibility it continues its postseason appearance streak.
Minnesota: Currently, Minnesota leads the Big 10 with a 14-6 record and hosts Purdue this weekend. A Gopher sweep means Minnesota will win the Big 10 and find itself in the NCAA tournament. However, if the Gophers stumble against Purdue and struggle in the B1G tournament, the door will be left open for their exclusion. This one is not likely to happen but worth keeping an eye on.
Texas: Much like Florida State, Texas has a decent resume but a bad conference record (9-11). The Longhorns host West Virginia this weekend and cannot afford to get swept. Finishing 10-13 is not great, but could be enough as the Big 12 is the #1 RPI conference in baseball.
Kansas: Similarly, Kansas has a big series to end the year as the Jayhawks travel down to Lubbock to face off against Texas Tech. Just like Texas, Kansas cannot afford to get swept and much like Florida State, Kansas is likely to get swept. The Jayhawks are looking to keep their head above water by taking one from the Raiders and finish the conference season at .500.
UCLA: The Bruins are likely in, but if they drop their last 2 series and their RPI falls, they could be on the bubble. Chances are they would still make the tournament, but they would be one of the last entrants to the tournament, putting their post season chances in question. A lot needs to break wrong for UCLA to end its season prematurely.
Washington: Another group of Huskies finishes up with USC and Stanford. Washington is likely to drop the Stanford series means UW would have to sweep the Trojans to maintain a .500 conference record. Combine that with a mid-50s RPI and Washington has a tough sell. However, a 4-2 record just might do the job.
Utah: Utah has pretty much the same resume as Washington, but lost all 3 games to UW. On the plus side, the Utes swept Arizona this year. They also finish up with UCLA and Arizona State. The ASU series won’t do anything positive for them, but a sweep of UCLA could help a lot.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks have been sliding for a while. Much like Florida State, they have a strong RPI, but not much else backing it up. South Carolina has lost the last seven series and needs to sweep a hot Georgia team this week to get up to .500 in conference play. USC will need to take the series from the Dawgs and make some noise in the SEC conference tournament to have a realistic possibility. It’s an outside shot, but there’s still a possibility as long as they get some help.