FanPost

2017 FSU win-share projections



Bama - .35

ULM - .98

UM - .77

NCST - .79

@Wake - .86

@Duke - .85

UL - .67

@BC - .83

Cuse - .85

@Clem - .54

DelSt - .99

@UF - .728

Total = 9.21

Analysis

Bama - A 65% chance of victory equates to about a 5.5 point spread on a neutral field, which feels about right in what should be a low scoring game that will feature two of the top defenses (despite Bama having to replace over 1/2 its defensive starters) and two offenses that have questions on the OL, including new starters at tackle.

UM - The timing of this game works out great for FSU. UM will have a brand new starter at QB who is either a true freshman or former walk-on. It will likely be somewhat tough to run against UM much ballyhooed starting front 7 but they have a bunch of new starters in the secondary, which we should be able to exploit with the pass attack.

NCST - Some of you guys will probably assign a higher percentage to this game, especially since it will be played at Doak. But the Wolf Pack look to have a veteran squad (returning 17 starters) that will feature a pretty good defense anchored by a strong D-line and an efficient offense with a veteran O-line and QB.

@Wake - This is another one some might assign a higher higher percentage to, but its on the road against a Wake squad that returns a lot of experience (15 returning starters) on the offensive side of the ball and the defensive front 7.

@Duke - Another conference road game against a fairly experienced squad that returns 7 starters on each side of the ball.

UL - The Cards return Lamar Jackson but are replacing 7 other offensive starters, including most of his skill supporting cast and might be starting a true freshman or two on the OL. The defense will be replacing several of the former blue chip transfers from the back 7. Playing at home and having Derwin this time should be the difference and make FSU slightly less than a TD favorite.

@BC - The Eagles have a rookie QB and some questions on the offense but return 15 starters overall, including a veteran defense that features almost all upperclassmen starters.

Cuse - The offense has been steadily improving under Babers but I think the defense will still hold them back this year against teams of FSU's caliber, especially with them playing on the road.

@Clem - This one is like a lot like the matchup against UM but against a more talented roster later in the season. Like UM, CU will also have a 1st year starter at QB, though he will have more time to get acclimated. And the front 7 should be stout against the run (but like UM there isn't a ton of established depth at the moment) but there are also some questions in the secondary that will need to be worked out. I think this projection likely has the largest chance of variance depending on how the QB and secondary end up working out, but atm I'm comfortable with projecting FSU as about a 2 point favorite on the road.

@UF - A 72.8% percent chance feels about right playing a Go Gata team on the road that has to replace a lot on defense and that still has major question marks at QB.

Overall, it looks like the schedule presents 2 cupcakes, only 1 game where FSU will likely be a sizable underdog (Bama), 1 where they look to be a slight favorite (CU), 4 where they should a sizable favorite (UM, NCST, UL, UF), and 4 where they will likely be heavy favorites (Wake, Duke, BC, Cuse). Some will look at the schedule and say 10 wins should be pretty easy but the latest over under I have seen has FSU at 9.5 and my win-share has them slightly under 9 and a quarter. I think their chances should go up against UM and to a lesser extent Clemson if our offense is willing and able to test their back 7s in coverage, as I don't expect a ton of success trying to pound the run against those front 7s.

*Returning starters is based on Phil Steele's numbers.

**Conversion of win percentage to point spread is based off this chart.

Updated: (Courtesy of TrueGoose)

Chances of

12-win: 2.806%
11-win: 13.723%
10-win: 26.756%
9-win: 28.237%
8-win: 18.238%
7-win: 7.650%
6-win: 2.139%
Remaining: 0.451%

43.285% chance of 10+ wins

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