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FSU basketball’s NCAA Tournament projection improves

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Does the big dance await the ’Noles?

NCAA Basketball: Florida State at Virginia Tech Michael Shroyer-USA TODAY Sports

ACC road wins mean a great deal. How much so? Just a middle-of-the-road victory on a conference foe’s home court can turn around a team’s postseason projections, as has happened to Florida State following its Saturday triumph over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.

The Seminoles rose in the bracketology of ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, improving from a 9-seed on Thursday to an 8-seed today. Lunardi has the ’Noles opening play at the Midwest regional’s Detroit venue against 8-seed Butler, which would be a tricky contest, since the Bulldogs are based in nearby Indianapolis. And things wouldn’t get any easier thereafter, as FSU would likely face 1-seed Purdue (another Indiana team), were both to advance.

Lunardi’s projection aligns with BracketMatrix.com, which also has Florida State as an 8-seed, while the Seminoles are included in 89 of 90 brackets consulted. TeamRankings.com gives the ’Noles a 70.8% chance of making the tourney, as well as a 0.4% chance of winning it.