Situational Box Score - Georgia Tech and Season to Date

Well, I've been busy working on automating this script and while nearly complete, I wanted to give you and update on where the numbers stand for the Georgia Tech game and the season to date.

First, let me attempt to define a few things I've been looking into for the situational box score and fully explain the methodology I'm using so people can give some feedback. Let's cover each of the ways you can gain possession of the ball after the opening possession of each half: after an opponent score, a defensive rebound, a turnover (includes jumpballs that result in a turnover).

  • OppScore: After any opponent score, but also includes opening possessions of halves and any off a jumpball situation that doesn't result in a turnover... for some reason this was necessary because it counts as an extra possession. Does not include scoring possessions where the final FT is missed and taken as a defensive rebound, so it will not track with stats like scoring % or floor % that you will see in the statbroadcast feed from the website.
  • Def Rebounding: any possessions off a defensive rebound, including the aforementioned FT case.
  • Turnovers: possessions that start with a turnover, including Jumpballs that result in a turnover. This does not separate into Live vs. Non-live like I did last time. I will eventually rework this logic to do that, but in the meanwhile, it's just any possessions originating from a turnover that have a shot or giveaway within the first 10 seconds of the possession, regardless of turnover type (steal, lost out of bounds, travel, etc.)
  • Transition vs. Non-transition: any shots or turnovers that occur within the first ten seconds of a possession are transition, every shot or turnover after that is considered non-transition and counted as such. If you score off an offensive rebound within 10 seconds, that still counts as transition as well. Any possession that has a transition shot in it is grouped with all the transition shots though any subsequent shots after the first ten seconds are grouped with the nontransition possessions. This means, even if the points came on an offensive rebound after the transition period, it counts as a transition possession and the points go in non-transition. It results in some wonky numbers in the PPP occasionally, but I'm generally pleased with how it has performed. This classification problem is the basic reason why you would not be able to see a unification to the box score for the initial FG% in transition numbers at Hoop-Math with the efficiency metrics from Haslammetrics (who for what its worth is one person who has come up with metrics that are in essence offensive rebounding efficiency.)
  • Note on garbage time: Fouls and free throws that extend the game are presently being included in transition, in an ideal world I would already have a win prediction model up and running so that I could calculate when garbage time begins and strip those possessions out. I will eventually get around to it, but I don't mind artificially inflating the transition numbers for the time being simply because by the way the non-transition possessions are defined, they will be inflated beyond what makes sense sometimes on a per possession basis.
  • Let me give one illustrative example of how exactly I'm tagging possessions by how they start.

    This possession (6th for GT) would be classified as an OppScore possession for Georgia Tech, where they attempted two 2pt Jumpers, going 0/2 and the possession closing out with a defensive rebound by Terrance Mann, thereby starting a defensive rebound possession for possession number 7 for FSU. We would apply the transition tag if the shot or shots (or potential TOs) were within 10 seconds of the start of the possession (from the end of that WonderPhil Cofer alley oop till the first shot

    Hopefully that answers most of your questions, but feel free to comment any questions you have. Now on to the Georgia Tech game totals:

    The areas in which FSU dominated this game were particularly in generating points off turnovers and just generally not giving the ball away with the frequency that the Yellow Jackets did, scoring 24 points off turnovers while only turning it over on 3 of their 16 turnovers. In comparison, Georgia Tech scored 12 points off 12 turnovers while turning it over on 4 of those turnover possessions.

    Perhaps the main reason this game stayed competitive as long as it did is that the Noles were being taken advantage of in transition after defensive rebounds. Between us crashing the offensive glass and Georgia Tech getting several improbably offensive boards to finish off their defensive rebound possessions, I suppose this is something you can really live with since we generally get a lot of offensive boards. That being said, FSU grabbed 6 offensive boards in 24 total misses eligible for a rebound. Shooting 60% from the field certainly helps win you some ball games too, I'd venture to guess.

    I'm going a little light on the analysis for this game, since we've got some season long numbers to look at. In particular, I think I would like to see if we can understand our half to half performance with data for most of the season (17 games, excl: So. Miss, Citadel, Kennesaw St) to see how much of a let down we had in our second half performances.

    In the first half, transition buckets are a boost to our net efficiency margin because we get ~38% of our points of the half in transition, in total about 3.8 points more than our opponents in transition during 1st halves. Roughly 58% of our defensive rebounds wind up as a transition possession, so it's very clear that we are trying to run early and often. The area where we really wind up blowing many teams out of the water in the first half is off of turnovers. We have net gain on points off turnovers of 5.1 points during the first half alone. Any way you slice it, we've done pretty well in most first halves this year.

    So what happens in the second half? We get fewer transition opportunities from defensive rebounds and fewer turnovers, but it seems like we make up for it with more transition opportunities after opponent scores. This is likely heavily influenced by a dramatic uptick in free throws from end of game possession extending not being excluded. There is a shift in emphasis away from shooting more 3's and getting the ball to the rim with on average two extra attempts per game. What really sticks out without a doubt is how much worse the defense gets during the second half, roughly 6 points worse over the course of nearly the same number of possessions, .868 PPP in the 1st half, and 1.058 PPP in the 2nd half. I see something that I have to believe is a mistake in my formula because it can't possibly be real, a total oddity in the FT% on defensive rebounds in transition. FSU and opponents are shooting below 50% in that scenario on 135 and 91 attempts, respectively this year.

    Are fouls after defensive rebounds typically more strenuous or forceful? Are you more winded momentarily and recovering more so than during other types of free throws, possibly affecting your shot motion? I checked a few games to see what was going on and it checked out but I'll confirm or deny sometime over my next post or two. I know it's a prediction I've made in real life (and perhaps even on TN), so to unintentionally stumble upon data that supports that idea would be sweet. There's a ton you can infer from this type of breakdown, for instance, it addresses one particular idea that we hear commentators talk about "scoring response" (aka returning an opposing score with a score of your own.) With a bit of teasing out, you could get things like PPSP and Floor%, but even as is you get PPP for these scenarios (nice to see that we are well above 1.00 PPP after OppScores)

    If you liked this, there's more interesting stuff on the way. Let me know what you think and or if there's something more you'd like to know. These numbers aren't gospel and may have gotten miscategorized somewhere along the way but it accounts for the vast majority of plays correctly. There are still some kinks and unpredictability to be worked out though, so caveat emptor

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