The season started with fourteen straight wins and the Seminoles seemed destined for another Omaha run, picking up a national seed along the way. That streak was followed up with a five-game losing streak and a stretch of 6-3 sandwiched between another losing streak of four games. The ‘Noles have gone 7-2 since with two series of immense importance on the horizon.
A pedestrian 13-10 record in the ACC, a mediocre pitching staff, terrible defense and an offense that is scoring almost a full run less than the previous two seasons makes it hard to imagine FSU as one of the eight best teams in the country. Even though this team might not stack up against teams of the past they have had success against some of the top teams in the country. Florida State currently has an RPI of 11 with the 15th best strength of schedule and 4th toughest non-conference schedule to date. The Seminoles RPI could surge over the last three weeks of the regular season with a series against at RPI #10 Clemson this weekend and a home series against RPI #13 NC State the last weekend of the season.
Currently, there are only two teams, Florida and Arkansas, with more wins versus teams with an RPI of 50 or better than the Seminoles. Because of that, D1Baseball’s latest projections have Florida State the 9th overall seed, hosting a regional with Auburn, Sam Houston St., and St. Louis. Clemson is the 8th seed and last national seed setting up a matchup this weekend with major implications. Below is Boyd’s World Needs Report, it does not account for the added fourth game against Mt. St. Mary’s which will likely have no impact on FSU’s RPI.
Remaining: 7 home, 3 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 11 ROWP: 0.623
No more wins needed.
0 home wins, 2 road wins
1 home wins, 1 road wins
2 home wins, 0 road wins
3 home wins, 3 road wins
4 home wins, 2 road wins
5 home wins, 1 road wins
6 home wins, 0 road wins
5 home wins, 3 road wins
6 home wins, 2 road wins
7 home wins, 1 road wins
For Florida State to earn a coveted national seed they need one of the last three scenarios to take place. Sweeping Clemson in their last three remaining road games seems highly unlikely which means they are going to need six or seven home wins in the eight remaining games. The Seminoles can probably afford to lose the series this weekend against Clemson as long as they are not swept and still earn a top-eight seed. That will only happen if they take care of business against Jacksonville, Mt. St. Mary’s and then take the series against NC State.
Also in the back of their minds is the next win that will break the record for head coach Mike Martin. The Seminoles will look for that win starting this Saturday at 6:30 PM, with game two Sunday at 4 PM and the finale Monday night at 7 PM.