Update (9/1): There is increasing confidence in tropical development of a system pegged to traverse the South Florida coast tomorrow, with the NHC increasing the chances from 10% to 40%. Given it will stay well to our south, the only issue will be rain and some squally weather.
I still expect the winds to be southeasterly, so the normal pattern of showers and storms after noon seems like a safe bet.
I apologize for not being more specific. But predictions are notoriously difficult, especially about the future.
Wet conditions are looking likelier heading into the Labor Day night opener between Florida State and Virginia Tech, their first matchup in-conference since 2012.
The ECMWF (European) weather model has been developing a tropical wave into a tropical system originating southeast of Florida since its 0z run on Tuesday. The GFS (American) weather model develops this system, but at a much slower rate with roughly no effects for Tallahassee. Note that no significant tropical development of the wave is expected, as the National Hurricane Center as of 2pm gives it a measly 10% chance of cyclone formation within the next 5 days:
Note that this does not mean a hurricane or hurricane conditions are expected.
While it is too soon to pinpoint the local effects from this tropical feature, a consistent feature I see from both models’ forecasts for Monday night are moderate southeasterly winds.
Why is this important?
Because southeasterly winds, regardless of tropical cyclone development, favor beefier sea-breeze rains for the region - common in summer Florida.
Above are graphics from your local TAE National Weather Service branch. They indicate the probability and time of rain’s occurrence you can expect when winds are out of the southeast - as currently forecast. If you compare them to other prevailing wind setups, you’ll see an enhanced chance of showers and storms from the Gulf & Atlantic Sea-breezes specifically between 2pm and 8pm.
I’ll also mention that the path and timing of this tropical wave could prolong and enhance the rains, but there is not much skill in predicting that this far in advance. Interestingly, Vegas sportsbooks showed a 3-point drop in the total the last day or so. Leave it to the sharps to stay updated on the weather.
In short, prepare for rain throughout the day Monday. Your fine folks over at the NWS station on campus do exemplary work, so keep it tuned there for all your weather needs. I’ll try to keep it updated here.