As far as ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is concerned, Florida State basketball’s road through the NCAA Tournament just got a lot more difficult. And for good reason, as the Seminoles have dropped two straight games for the first time this season after losing a nail-biter at home to Duke and then suffering a road defeat vs. Pittsburgh.
After consecutive projections that included the ’Noles as a 3-seed and a 4-seed, respectively, both of which involved FSU opening play in Jacksonville, that home-state advantage is now off the table, as is the lofty seeding. Lunardi’s most recent bracketology projection has the Seminoles as a 6-seed in the West region, opening play in Tulsa, Oklahoma, against 11-seed Wofford.
The Terriers in the opening round is certainly not a bad draw, but should the ’Noles advance, Lunardi has them meeting the winner of 3-seed Oklahoma and 14-seed Boise State. Facing the Sooners in the Sooner State? Not ideal. And it doesn’t get any easier.
If FSU makes it out of that pod to the Sweet 16, it would face the survivor of 2-seed Gonzaga, 7-seed Indiana, 10-seed Washington, and 15-seed Northern Colorado in Anaheim. The Zags are obviously the most likely victor of that group, and a matchup with either them or the Huskies would basically be a road game for Florida State.
Bracket Matrix, which averages a ton of NCAA Tournament projections (currently 75), shows the Seminoles as the top 5-seed in the dance; Team Rankings concurs, presently, that FSU’s most likely seed is a 5.