Florida State at Wake Forest 7:30 PM ET
Watch: ACC NETWORK (More on How to Watch)
Weather: It could be a rainy, soggy, breezy night in Winston-Salem. What’s left of tropical storm Nestor will be racing through the Carolinas this afternoon and through tomorrow. Thankfully, most of the convection and heavy thunderstorms will be well east of the game. It looks like we will have steady light showers for the duration. There’s a 65% chance of rain at kick, increasing to over 90 by the end of the game. Right now, the forecast does not call for thunderstorms or strong wind. Winds, NE at 10 mph.
The Spread: Wake Forest opened as a 4 point favorite. The line has shifted down to between Wake by 1 to 1 1/2. Real close to a coin flip in the chilly, sloppy conditions. Bud Elliot walks you through which games to throw money at this week.
You should check out the Stat Comparison linked above. You’ll see why Florida State isn’t favored in this game. Wake is better in just about every measurable stat. One of the most troublesome stats for this Florida State defense is Wake Forest’s 3rd down efficiency, ranking 6th in the country. The ‘Noles will need to find some ways to get Wake and their warp speed offense off the field. If Marvin Wilson and Cory Durden struggle to disrupt the interior o-line, Wake Forest will have a lot of success with their long mesh RPO game.
Defensively, Wake creates a lot of havoc for an undersized, less talented team. They are well coached and play their assignments well. The quarterbacks for FSU can’t have another game like Clemson this week. Wake will be dedicated to stopping the run. There will be opportunities for Florida State’s excellent WR corps to make plays. The quarterbacks have to hit those opportunities when available. A Clemson type performance will result in a lot of 1 yard runs and incomplete passes. If the QBs can hit some of those chances, they might be able to overcome getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage and giving up some sacks (think NC State game).
At 3-3, every game is important, especially winnable games against the ACC. Florida State is running out of chances to improve on last year’s season. The ‘Noles need to rebound after the beat down by Clemson. There’s still a chance that this season is salvageable and FSU can create some momentum going into 2020. A win against Wake and 7-5 might be the floor for Florida State, with a shot at 8-4. Take a loss and the ‘Noles will be struggling to get bowl eligible. Florida State needs to bring their best game on the road, in the rain, to upset mighty Wake Forest.