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Baseline Breakdown: FSU survives Louisville in OT

The ’Noles rallied multiple times in regulation but emerged victorious in extra time.

NCAA Basketball: Louisville at Florida State Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State went 1-4 in their first five conference games but have now won five in a row to move into 7th place in the ACC with a 6-4 record. It took coming back from being down 9 points in the first half and as much as 10 in the second, but the Seminoles were able to force overtime and beat Louisville, 80-75.

Above The Rim

  • Turnovers were a major factor in this game as Louisville committed 23 to FSU’s 8. You read that right, Florida State only committed 8 turnovers in an entire game. The Cardinals turned the ball over on 30.3% of their possessions, far more than their season average of 18.3%, and FSU converted those into 32 points. Alternatively, the Seminoles turned it over at a rate of only 10.7%, well below their average of 19.9% on the year, and the Cardinals only gained 5 points from them. It will be even more evident as we move on to look at both team’s shooting that Florida State was able to hang around, and ultimately win, in large part thanks to the disparity in turnovers and the points generated from them.
  • Considering FSU went scoreless over the first five minutes of play, it is no surprise that tonight was not the ’Noles best shooting night as they went 23-61 (38%) from the floor. After going just 9-31 (29%) in the first half, FSU improved to 12-24 (50%) in the second and 2-6 (33.3%) in OT. Louisville shot consistently well throughout the game, finishing 25-52 (48%). The Seminoles missed several open looks at the rim, particularly early in the first half, completing just 9-21 (42.8%) layups.
  • Three-point shooting also favored the Cardinals as they shot 12-28 (43%) to FSU’s 7-23 (30%). The ’Noles gave Louisville open looks from beyond the arc several times throughout the game. Some were to post-players who got lost during FSU’s defensive rotations, but in one sequence halfway through the second half, Ryan McMahon gave the Cardinals their largest lead of the game, 52-42, as he connected from deep on three consecutive possessions. FSU has struggled with giving their opponents open looks from three all year, and it nearly cost them this game.
  • Along with those 32 points off of turnovers, the ’Noles benefited from getting to the line more than twice as often as the Cardinals. FSU went 27-36 (75%) to Louisville’s 13-16 (81%). On the season, Louisville has drawn fouls at a slightly higher rate than FSU has. The Cardinals are 30th in the country with a free throw rate of 40.2%, while the ’Noles are 40th at 39%. In this one, FSU had a free throw rate of 59% to Louisville’s 34.6% and hit 14 more shots from the charity stripe.

Court Level

  • For the fifth time in eight games, Mfiondu Kabengele led the Seminoles in scoring against Louisville. The emerging superstar continued to impress with 22 points, 7 boards, 1 block, 2 steals, and only 2 fouls in 36 minutes on the floor. Kabengele somehow seems to get a little bit better every game, and he once again showed that he is not just a scoring threat in the post by knocking down two big triples. Fi not being in the starting lineup skews the bench points stat, as FSU’s bench outscored Louisville’s 34-15.
  • Anyone familiar with watching him play can see that Trent Forrest’s nagging injury is hampering his usual explosiveness and has him playing below full speed, but apparently, no one told his stat line. Forrest stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists to 0 turnovers, and 5 steals. His perimeter defense continues to be outstanding as anyone he is guarding seems utterly incapable of getting off a good shot.
  • Terance Mann was the first Seminole to put points on the scoreboard when he connected from deep over 5 minutes into the game. He would finish 3 of 4 from three, including the shot that cut the lead to one with 2:38 left in the game. Mann finished with 20 points on 4-6 shooting from the field and 9-11 from the line. He added 4 rebounds. Mann continued to overcome his tendency to hesitate from three and is now shooting 46.7% on the year from beyond the arc.


Louisville Head Coach Chris Mack:

FSU Head Coach Leonard Hamilton:

Terance Mann:

Up Next

The Seminoles host Wake Forest on Wednesday at 7pm.

Always know which games to watch when the ’Noles are off by checking out The FSU basketball fan’s daily rooting guide.