FSU’s NCAA Tournament road still begins in Florida, per latest projection

Updating readers — and presumably fans — of Florida State basketball’s postseason forecasts is fun, engaging, and rather infuriating, all at the same time. The first two explain themselves, while the final response is somewhat perplexing, as it entails criticism about not wanting to click on this kind of stuff from people who nevertheless click on this kind of stuff.

The latter’s main complaint? It doesn’t matter, because it’s too early. First, it always matters, as it’s a direct reflection of the perception of the FSU hoops program, and if perception isn’t reality in a sport that defines powerhouses based on human voters who likely watch a small spattering of games, then when does it? Second, it’s certainly not too early now, and that’s shown by the reality that NCAA Tournament projections are solidifying as more and more is known about teams across the country.

Case in point: the Seminoles remain a 7-seed in Joe Lunadi’s ESPN forecast, and they are still slated to open play just east on I-10, in Jacksonville. Florida State does now have a new opponent, though, in 10-seed Texas, a rather enigmatic team ranked just two spots below the ’Noles per KenPom, despite twice the losses (the Longhorns are 12-10 and ranked 30th, which is gross).

FSU’s second-round opponent continues to look like 2-seed Kentucky, should the Wildcats best 15-seed Princeton in the East region. Then it would be the survivor of 3-seed Purdue, 6-seed Buffalo, 11-seed Lipscomb, and 14-seed Georgia State for a return trip to the Elite 8 (the Boilermakers and Bulls remain unchanged, which doesn’t suck for the ’Noles). Duke is still the top seed in the East, a team the Seminoles would face in Washington, D.C.

A quick trip around other sites: FSU is also a 7-seed across Bracket Matrix and in our own SB Nation forecast, while CBS Sports has kept the ’Noles as a 6-seed.