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Postseason projections show importance of Tuesday’s Virginia Tech game for FSU basketball

Lots riding on a March game: the hallmark of successful programs.

NCAA Basketball: N.C. State at Florida State Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Every game matters, so it’s not accurate to say that No. 18 Florida State’s postseason prospects all come down to Tuesday’s game against No. 20 Virginia Tech— but it’s also difficult to overstate just how much is riding on the Seminoles’ home matchup against the Hokies.

The most immediate ramifications involve the ACC Tournament. Both the ’Noles and Tech are 11-5 in the ACC, tied for fourth and the final coveted double-bye in Charlotte. With only one conference game remaining for each squad after Tuesday’s Tallahassee showdown, and both Florida State and VT owning the tiebreaker over 10-6 Syracuse, the winner of this game will lockdown the 4-seed in the ACC Tourney (with the tiebreaker over Duke, the Hokies could still climb to the 3-seed, but only if Duke loses at home to Wake Forest, so never mind).

But that may not be the only 4-seed at stake, as the ’Noles and Virginia Tech are battling for NCAA Tournament position as well. And they’re in lockstep with each other. ESPN’s latest bracketology update has both squads as a 5-seed, with the Seminoles facing the winner of 12-seeds Arizona State and Utah State in San Jose. CBS has FSU as a 4-seed opening play against New Mexico State, also in San Jose, with Tech right behind as a 5-seed. Our own SB Nation projection has the opposite, with VT as the third 4-seed and Florida State as the first 5-seed. And across 105 forecasts surveyed in Bracket Matrix, the Hokies and ’Noles are right next to each other, as the third and fourth 4-seeds, respectively.