FanPost

Another Way to Look at Florida State's Record in 2018

This is not Bill Connelly’s advanced statistics, and certainly is not intended to be. It’s just a different but simple way to look at FSU’s record for the past three years. It doesn’t reveal anything that we don’t already, painfully, know. It's not something we like to dwell on, so at the end I'll ask for your thoughts on expected improvement for 2019.

Instead of the standard two-part win-loss record format, I broke down the games into a four-part format:

multiple score wins - single score wins - single score losses - multiple score losses

I define multiple scores as 9 points or more, with a touchdown and two-point conversion being a single score.

I’ve ignored the games against FCS opponents because, frankly, FSU should win those games by multiple scores.

This format shows FSU’s record against FBS opponents (including G5 opponents) for the past three years:

Year Multi-Score Wins Single Score Wins Single Score Losses Multi-Score Losses
FBS 2016 7 3 2 1
FBS 2017 3 3 3 3
FBS 2018 2 2 1 6

Against P5 opponents the records look like this for the past two years. You will notice that that the only difference is in the number of multiple score wins, which were against G5 opponents:

Year Multi-Score Wins Single Score Wins Single Score Losses Multi-Score Losses
P5 2017 1 3 3 3
P5 2018 1 2 1 6

I looked at the average sizes of those multiple score losses. The number of multiple score losses didn’t just double last year, the average sizes of those losses increased by 6 points, from 22 points in 2017 to 28 points in 2018.

A couple of other things I looked at, but that are unrelated to this four part win-loss format, are the number of the multiple score losses in which there were multiple score deficits at halftime (2 in 2017, 4 in 2018), and the number of halftime leads that were blown (2 each in 2017 and 2018).

In the comments, what do you think the 2019 record will be in the four part win-loss format? And I'm always hoping for improvement, so what four-part record would you consider an acceptable improvement over 2018? After one game against a strong G5 team, the offense looks improved, but the defense looks suspect.

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