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Let’s do some math! Or rather, let’s do some math for you!
We’re taking a stab at guessing Florida State’s win total in 2020. We’ve done this in the past, but this time we’re putting a new wrinkle on it.
But first, what are win shares? Win shares are a simple exercise where instead of assigning a win/loss for a game, you assign the probability of a given outcome. For instance, someone might think that FSU’s game vs Clemson is not just a win, but a 100% chance of an FSU win. This is a broken, broken person. But it gives us a clearer picture of just how broken they are!
Sounds great. But how do you figure out what probabilities to assign? It’s obviously subjective, but let’s try to make it less so. Bettingtalk.com has taken a look at historical CFB spread data and, using a spread-to-moneyline conversion tool, identified the average chances of winning/losing a game based on the spread. There’s a little noise in using this directly, but it gives you some reference for turning “I like FSU over UNC by 7 points” into a win share probability.
We asked some TN staff to participate using the above method. After some crying and questions about what exactly math is, they helped out.
First, our predicted game margins.
Predicted game margins
| TN staff | v GT | v Samford | @ Miami | @ ND | v UNC | @ LOU | v Pitt | @ NCSU | v Clem | v UVA | v Duke |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN staff | v GT | v Samford | @ Miami | @ ND | v UNC | @ LOU | v Pitt | @ NCSU | v Clem | v UVA | v Duke |
| Rob | 10 | 35 | -10 | -20 | -7 | -3 | 3 | 5 | -28 | 3 | 7 |
| Brian | 7 | 30 | -7 | -21 | -10 | 7 | 7 | -7 | -21 | 7 | 7 |
| Jon Marchant | 10 | 28 | 3 | -18 | -5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | -18 | 6 | 10 |
| Adam | 17 | 30 | -14 | -17 | 3 | -3 | 13 | 17 | -28 | 14 | 21 |
| David | 10 | 35 | -3 | -17 | -3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -25 | 7 | 17 |
| Kevin | 7 | 21 | -5 | -14 | -7 | 3 | 7 | -3 | -28 | 5 | 10 |
| Evan | 14 | 27 | -10 | -21 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -50 | 7 | 14 |
| Perry | 24 | 31 | 7 | -21 | -3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -43 | 7 | 7 |
| Matt | 13 | 34 | 4 | -13 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 11 | -27 | 9 | 16 |
| Average | 12 | 30 | -4 | -18 | -3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -30 | 7 | 12 |
And now, those game margins in terms of win shares.
Predicted win shares
| TN staff | v GT | v Samford | @ Miami | @ ND | v UNC | @ LOU | v Pitt | @ NCSU | v Clem | v UVA | v Duke | Win share total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN staff | v GT | v Samford | @ Miami | @ ND | v UNC | @ LOU | v Pitt | @ NCSU | v Clem | v UVA | v Duke | Win share total |
| Rob | 0.77 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.7 | 5.22 |
| Brian | 0.7 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 5.34 |
| Jon Marchant | 0.77 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 0.05 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 5.91 |
| Adam | 0.91 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 6.74 |
| David | 0.77 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.91 | 6.18 |
| Kevin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.15 | 0.3 | 0.57 | 0.7 | 0.43 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 5.63 |
| Evan | 0.85 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.85 | 6.13 |
| Perry | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6.39 |
| Matt | 0.83 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.17 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.89 | 6.65 |
| average | 0.81 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.06 | 0.42 | 0.55 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.01 | 0.70 | 0.81 | 6.02 |
Share your thoughts/odds below in the comments.