FanPost

Win Shares and Adjustments After Game 1

Hello my fellow Noles and Nolettes.

Boy what a game... this team has made some major strides in a single offseason. Still some things to clean up to play well enough to win close games like this, but I am damn proud of them and how they played a very good ND team.

So now that we've seen our Noles in a game situation, and in prime time, against a quality opponent, I am going to adjust my predictions game-by-game using win share predictions. These predictions are based on what we saw Sunday night and assuming that's what will be standard for each game going forward. (Adjustment in parentheses, +/- to what my Win Share was from preseason)

ND - 0.00 (-0.25)

- ND Adjusted to include the loss on the schedule. Great game. Really wish we pulled it out.

JSU - 0.98 (0.00)

- It's JSU... surely we take care of them. They weren't exactly awe inspiring against UAB where they lost 31-0

@Wake - 0.60 (+0.10)

- I bumped up Wake because they didn't look overly impressive against Old Dominion. They had success running the ball, but if our run D was a good as Sunday's, then we should be able to keep them in check. Their defense does look a little stingy though.

LOU - 0.60 (+0.10)

- LOU looked awful against Ole Miss. If we play LOU the way we played ND we could beat them by a similar score as Ole Miss did. Not saying that happens, but after the way LOU played, They don't worry me as much.

CUSE - 0.80 (+0.05)

- Cuse will probably be the worst team in the conference this year. Only bumped this up a little.

@UNC - 0.35 (+0.05)

- Bumped this up a little because of how poorly they played VTech... but I'll need to see more of UNC playing this poorly before I move it any higher than this.

UMass - 0.99 (0.00)

- It's UMass... next.

@Clem - 0.08 (+.04)

- Bumped this up by a whopping 0.04 cuz why not? UGA's DL kept Clem's offense from looking like what it usually does. It looks like our DL could be solid this year. But I expect Dabo to be a child and try his best to run up the score if he can.

NCST - 0.45 (0.00)

- Didn't move this up or down. NCST looked great against USF. They could give us a hard time. Only reason this is close to 50/50 is because it's at home, or else it would be closer to 0.40 or slightly lower.

UM - 0.35 (0.00)

- Kept this the same because we didn't learn much about Miami against Bama. Yeah, they got killed. But that doesn't mean UM suddenly is a good match up for us. They still have strengths that will be hard for us to beat.

@BC - 0.65 (+0.10)

- Moved this up because, should we play like we did against ND, we shouldn't have any problem scoring on BC, as well as our D giving them fits in the running game and drop back passes.

@UF - 0.30 (0.00)

- Didn't move it for the same reason as Miami. Didn't really learn much from their game with FAU and they still look like a mismatch.

Final Win Shares: 6.15

Total Net Change: +0.19 (+0.44 if you don't count ND loss)

So I'm thinking we go 6-6. 7-5 slightly more likely than 5-7, where it was the other way around before the ND game.

Also (while not including the ND win share variance), my shares bumped up by about half of a win. This ND game has given me a spark of hope that we actually have the studs on the field and in the huddle to get some of these wins taken care of to achieve a 6-6 record, or better.

So what are your thoughts about the remaining 11 games? I'm sure you're more optimistic about the team, just like everyone else. But by how much? Are certain games starting to look more like "should be wins" than toss-ups? Are UM and UNC suddenly more beatable? Will Super-Man manage to save Louis from the clutches of Lex Luther? oops... sorry got my fan posts mixed up.

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