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College Football Week 10 Picks, DFS Plays & Podcast: Why so serious about the Playoff Rankings?

It always sorts itself out

NCAA Football: North Carolina at Georgia Tech Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Have you or a loved one fallen victim to emotional frustration, confusion or exasperation at the hand of the latest College Football Playoff rankings?

On Tuesday when the rankings came out, as they revealed Oklahoma behind Alabama at No. 9 and 8 respectively I didn’t bat an eye.

Then, they revealed Texas ahead of Alabama at No. 7 and the ESPN panelists began talking about how great of a job the committee did a superb job because Texas beat Bama head-to-head. But nobody had a problem with Oklahoma being two spots behind Texas who they beat?

I got frustrated with the hypocrisy of it all and the complete sham all of it is and then I remembered a simple fact — How often have we thought at the end of the year the committee truly got it wrong?

More or less, it all works out in the end.

I mean at this point, we haven’t played the first weekend of November yet. There’s more than a month of meaningful football to go before we even make it to the conference championship games.

It always finds a way to sort itself out.

At the end of the day, this year will too.

We’ve seen plenty of examples this year that teams with holes are finding losses (UNC, namely, but others too). We’ve got plenty of opportunities for teams to find more losses starting this weekend with multiple top-ten teams on the road — two of them facing ranked teams themselves.

Don’t fret. We’ll all find the four best teams in December. Until then, enjoy the greatest sport in the world.

Speaking of finding losses, I managed to find a boatload of them. I’ve now twice gone 3-7 the week after getting 1 game within .500.

Hopefully, I can buck that trend soon. For now, I’m back to 46-51 on the season.

As for the comments, I want to make note of a truly improbable showing from OhNoleHeDidnt who put up the first 0-10 that I can remember since putting together this article over the last three seasons. Honestly, impressive to pull that off and made me feel a bit better about my own picks.

Our top scorer was a frequent commenter, mr_britt, who had a really impressive 8-2 record by going with a lot of the big favorites to cover even on the road. It’s the first win of the season for mr_britt. Congratulations and welcome to the welcome to the Comment Section Hall of Fame!

Comment Section Hall of Fame

  • Week Zero: MexiNole and Topnole (5-2)
  • Week One: Yapo.SD and Topnole (7-3)
  • Week Two: Kylefsu02 (7-3)
  • Week Three: Kylefsu02 and Ukedadnole (7-3)
  • Week Four: trojan24man and Brian (7-3)
  • Week Five: NoleInAggieland (7-3)
  • Week Six: medav (8-2)
  • Week Seven: csfuu (9-1)
  • Week Eight: 85 Chief and JGsped (7-3)
  • Week Nine: mr_britt (8-2)

Quick shoutout to BAONole who registered with the last week and jumped in the comments to make some picks. Happy to see some new names down there each week. If you’re lurking, make an account, get in the comments and have some fun with us.

Could you be the next Comment Section Champion of the season? Leave your picks to the 10 games below in the comment section at the bottom of the page. You have to pick the 10 games I provided to be eligible for the Hall as those are the only ones I grab. Most correct is our winner.

On the DFS side, my co-host on the Sharpen the Point podcast — Chris Tyndall — and I gave you some good pieces last week, but we didn’t put them together quite well enough to end up profitable. Hopefully, you did a better job of creating that puzzle and got yourself into the cash.

Want to get more details on those picks? Listen to the Sharpen the Point podcast, where we talk in-depth on game picks as well as the Daily Fantasy Sports contests on DraftKings each weekend. New to DFS? We can help you through the thought process of building a team.

Reminder that we are just two guys with keyboards and microphones, not gambling professionals, so follow at your own risk and play responsibly.

Let’s get to the ATS and DFS picks. All lines and DFS pricing from our friends at DraftKings.

Brian’s College Football Week 10 Picks

No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats (+4.5) at No. 7 Texas Longhorns (Noon ET, FOX)

We start in Austin, Texas. The Longhorns, as mentioned above, are a darling of the committee thanks to their road win at Alabama in Week 2. It is one of the best wins on a resume this season. But my eyes see it different. That was an Alabama team that was still totally lost on who they were. The following week they changed out their QB and put up that disgusting performance in Tampa against USF. They’ve since gone back to Milroe and built up as the year has gone along. More on them later. But Texas hasn’t done anything outside of that game to wow me. On the otherhand, we’ve all moved on from K-State after their two early season losses, but neither one is a bad loss. Both are on the road against now No. 12 Missouri and No. 22 Oklahoma State. Teams better than we gave them credit for at the time. K-State is tough to talk about as well because they’ve done it with two QBs and two RBs — hello Treshaun Ward — leading the way. We’re underrating the Wildcats and I like them to win in the Lone Star state.

Note: The Draftkings line is 4. We’re using 4.5 for our purposes.

Brian’s Pick: Kansas State +4.5

Texas A&M Aggies (+3.5) at No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels (Noon ET, ESPN)

If you’ve been around this season, you know I love to pick lines that simply don’t make sense. This is one of them. I fully expected this one to be closer to 6 or 7, but seeing it lower has me thinking that oddsmakers are on the same page I am. Ole Miss is a rushing team first and foremost. Yes, they’re extremely fast-paced but still a rushing team at their core. A&M has been great against the run this year. The only game they got torn up was by Miami’s passing attack. If they can corral Quinshon Judkins and force this one on Jaxson Dart, I like their chance to keep it close and to win the game outright.

Note: The Draftkings line is 3. We’re using 3.5 for our purposes.

Brian’s Pick: Texas A&M +3.5

No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5) at Clemson Tigers (Noon ET, ABC)

Which one of you fools called in as Tyler from Spartanburg? If it wasn’t any of you, I expect one of you to be on the line waiting next week. Dabo Swinney and Clemson’s grip on the ACC is obviously gone this season as the Tigers are now focused on just reaching bowl eligibility. It’s a tough path starting with Notre Dame this weekend. The Irish are fresh off a couple dominant wins over Pitt and USC, but I think Clemson is better built for the way Notre Dame plays than those two teams. The question will be if Clemson can put together a full game like they did against Florida State unlike they have the last two weeks against Miami and NC State. I’ll bank on a better effort from Clemson at home.

Note: The Draftkings line is 3. We’re using 3.5 for our purposes.

Brian’s Pick: Clemson +3.5

No. 12 Missouri Tigers (+15.5) at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (3:30pm ET, CBS)

The Dawgs sure looked like the Dawgs again last week. Florida’s offense was supremely outmatched against this UGA defense and Carson Beck didn’t miss a beat without Brock Bowers. Missouri is better than Florida though and are pretty clearly the second best team in the SEC East for my money. The question will be how close to being the best team in the East they are. The Tigers only loss this season was against LSU in a game they had a chance to win late. Protecting the ball will be key, but I’ll keep picking against UGA because I don’t trust Beck without Bowers based on what I saw in the first two months of football.

Note: The Draftkings line is 15. We’re using 15.5 for our purposes.

Brian’s Pick: Missouri +15.5

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5) at No. 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3:30pm ET, ABC)

The Sooners did what Oklahoma always does. I’ve gotta appreciate Brent Venables commitment to upholding OU’s legacy. Honestly, the Sooners outplayed the Jayhawks for a lot of that game last week, but they made too many losing plays at the most inopportune times. The end result was a loss and the disappearance of their wiggle room in the College Football Playoff picture. The first game after that is a quickly ascending Oklahoma State team. They’ve really leaned on Ollie Gordon II and he’s been incredible. Last 5 games: 121 yards, 136 and a touchdown, 168 and a touchdown, 282 and four touchdowns, 271 and two touchdowns. Really impressive and getting better as he’s gone along. Sooners going to have to key on him to win. I expect this to get crazy for the final Bedlam for awhile especially in Stillwater.

Note: The Draftkings line is 6. We’re using 6.5 for our purposes.

Brian’s Pick: Oklahoma State +6.5

No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-21.5) at Pittsburgh Panthers (3:30pm ET, ESPN)

For my pick and the rest of the staff’s predictions, click here.

Brian’s Pick: Florida State -21.5

Virginia Tech Hokies (+9.5) at No. 13 Louisville Cardinals (3:30pm ET, ACCN)

Would you believe me if I told you this game was for second place in the ACC? I mean you’ve probably heard it this week, but no way you would’ve believed it before the season. I didn’t even believe Virginia Tech was in this race when I looked it up last week. To be fair, their three conference wins are against the other three worst teams in the conference — Pitt, Wake and Syracuse. Louisville is certainly better than those three.

Brian’s Pick: Louisville -9.5

No. 5 Washington Huskies (-3.5) at No. 20 USC Trojans (7:30pm ET, ABC)

Remember when this was going to be an elimiation game for the College Football Playoff? USC took care of eliminating themselves already. Washington, though, is right in the thick of it. The Huskies have shown some holes lately struggling to stop Stanford and struggling to score or Arizona State. Cracks are showing in their championship campaign and Caleb Williams isn’t going to go away this quietly. Another prolific offense is the worst matchup for Washington.

Note: The Draftkings line is 3. We’re using 3.5 for our purposes.

Brian’s Pick: USC +3.5

No. 14 LSU Tigers (+3.5) at No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:45pm ET, CBS)

My LSU fandom is no secret at this point. The offense is the best in the country. The return of transfer RB Logan Diggs has allowed them to stay on schedule more often and Jayden Daniels is playing as good as (if not better than) any QB in the country. This one, though, will come down to the otherside of the ball. Can LSU get enough stops against a meh Alabama offense to allow their offense some breathing room? We saw in the Ole Miss shootout that they couldn’t. They’ve been better since then but now the injuries are piling up. Three starting corners and their best defensive lineman, Mekhi Wingo, are all out. That’s a problem. Can the aforementioned Milroe actually make the throws to make it hurt? That’ll decide this one. I won’t pick against my team despite all of it.

Note: The Draftkings line is 3. We’re using 3.5 for our purposes.

Brian’s Pick: LSU +3.5

No. 16 Oregon State Beavers (-13.5) at Colorado Buffaloes (10:00pm ET, ESPN)

I’ve been hating on Colorado all season, mostly because they don’t have the size to compete at the highest level in this sport. But they’ve been better as the year has gone along. Travis Hunter’s return obviously plays a big role in that. My rule (that I’ve turned my back on too many times) for the #Pac12AfterDark games has been to trust the home teams in these games and this is a huge spread. Give me Deion’s guys.

Note: The Draftkings line is 13. We’re using 13.5 for our purposes.

Brian’s Pick: Colorado +13.5

Chris’ College Football Daily Fantasy (DFS) Plays

Saturday DK Early Main Slate

QB

Garrett Greene, West Virginia ($8,100) — GJordan Travis Florida St $9000 - Make no mistake about it, I have not played enough Travis this season and this week I plan to rectify that. On paper the numbers look good for the Pitt pass defense, but in each matchup where they faced a decent QB they have given up yardage. The best comparison is Drake Maye who put up nearly 300 yards of offense and three TD’s. The Heisman contender has incentive to put up gaudy numbers down the stretch

  • Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma ($8,900) — One of Travis or Gabriel will be in every one of my lineups and some will feature both. Yes, I have seemingly turned into the president of the Dillon Gabriel fan club, but in awful weather he found a way to get over 30 fantasy points last week. Now, we get the last Bedlam and I hope we get to see a classic Big12 shootout to send the rivalry off in style. This game has the highest total on the board by a full touchdown and a close spread which leads to fantasy goodness.

RB

  • Jawhar Jordan, Louisville ($6,700) — Jordan injured his hamstring early in the Pitt game which led us to believe he would likely sit against Duke last week. Well, he played and seemingly continued ripping off chunks of yardage leading to 21 carries for 163 yards and 2 TD’s on the ground. I do not like to play guys in their first game back from injury so after seeing last week I am confident to trot him out against a porous Virginia Tech run defense that we picked on earlier this season.
  • TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St. ($6,500) — Continuing the theme at running back of guys who successfully returned from injury last week is Henderson. In his return from a multi-game absence, Henderson went for 34 fantasy points and saw his main backfield competition Miyan Williams lost for the season due to injury. With the backfield to himself and a lack of confidence in the Quarterback, I expect Henderson to be fed the rock early and often. It will not be long before Henderson is over $7k in price. His opponent, Rutgers, has been solid against the run overall, but gave up 100 yards and a TD to Braelon Allen of Wisconsin and 100 yards and 2 TDs to Blake Corum of Michigan which are the two most comparable matchups to the task they will face in Henderson this week.

WR

  • Ladd McConkey, Georgia ($5,800) — Last week, McConkey it felt like the value wasn’t there with McConkey on DK as we had not seen him put a full game together as he came back from the back injury. Against Florida he did just that, putting up a 6/135/1 line with Brock Bowers out of the lineup and DK in response kept his price right where it was last week. The value is there and he should become the focal point of a passing offense that while perceived as not as prolific as last year is still putting up 334 yards per game. We successfully picked on this Missouri secondary with LSU and I plan to go back to the well with McConkey this weekend.
  • Reggie Brown and Elijah Sarratt, James Madison ($5,000 and $4800) — It feels great to get to write up someone from my undefeated alma mater so I might as well make it two. My first words of advice whenever anyone starts playing DFS or gambling is to not bet with your heart. Am I doing that here? Maybe, but they are under priced and putting up numbers. At least one of them will be in every lineup I make, with a slight lean toward Sarratt as the more consistent producer, and I will certainly have one lineup with a game stack as Georgia St is the team I have been most worried about playing the entire season. Both teams struggle the most against the pass so running out Jordan McCloud ($8100), Brown, Sarratt, Darren Grainger ($7000) and Robert Lewis ($6300) is in play. Brown is the big play threat with games of 27, 38, and 36 this season already while Sarratt is more of the possession receiver with 5-8 catches in each of his last 6 games. Last week, they combined for 68 fantasy points so enjoy playing the Dukes while you can.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.