FanPost

My Fancy Math VS. the Final Score

Hello All!

As some of you have seen, I have been using my projection spreadsheet to base my score predictions each week for our games. I have had a few of you ask that I share how my projections did against the actual results. So I'll do just that!

Before I show the results, I want to explain my process to those of you who have not seen how I calculate my projections.

Remember, I do not count FCS opponents for anyone. I consider them a bye.

**IF YOU DON'T WANT THE MATH EXPLANATION SCROLL DOWN A LITTLE BIT**

These are the steps I take to determine a projected score.

1) I determine the average points scored for the home and away teams for the previous 12 weeks of games. Bye weeks and FCS opponents are not calculated into the average.

2) I determine the average points against for the home and away teams for the previous 12 weeks of games. Bye weeks and FCS opponents are not calculated into the average.

3) I calculate the points scored ratio for the home and away teams and average the previous 12 weeks of games.

4) I calculate the points against ration for the home and away teams and average the previous 12 weeks of games.

5) I will multiply the home team's average points for by the away team's average points against ratio, and vice versa. This gives me expected points scored for the home and away team.

6) I will multiply the home team's average points against by the away team's average point scored ratio, and vice versa. This gives expected points allowed for the home and away team.

7) I average the 2 different results together to come to a final score.

To briefly explain my Points Scored/Allowed Ratios, I will use the Miami game as an example.

- I calculate Miami's average points scored and against EXCLUDING the FSU game. This comes to Miami averaging 31.7 points scored, and 23.10 Allowed.

- I compare those averages to the final result.

- Mia scored 20 when they average 31.7. This comes to an FSU points allowed ratio of 63%.

- Mia allowed 27 when they average 21.10 against. This comes to an FSU points scored ratio of 117%

- I calculate FSU's average points score and against EXCLUDING the Miami game. This comes to FSU averaging 36 points scored, and 15.8 allowed.

- I compare those averages to the final result.

- FSU scored 27 when they average 36. This comes to a MIA points allowed ratio of 75%

- FSU allowed 20 when they average 15.82 against. This comes to a MIA points scored ratio of 126%

**IF YOU SKIPPED THE MATH EXPLANATION START HERE**

So let's get into how my projections did!

(For those of you who skipped ahead, I base my projections on the previous 12 weeks which means that during the first few weeks of the 2023 season some of the 2022 results are part of the calculation. But that's a good thing because a bigger data set gives better projections.)

WEEK 1 - LSU

FSU Projection - FSU 44, LSU 33

LSU Projection - FSU 30, LSU 20

Average - FSU 37, LSU 26

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 45, LSU 24

WEEK 2 - S MISS

FSU Projection - FSU 54, S MISS 14

S MISS Projection - FSU 30, S MISS 14

Average - FSU 41, S MISS 14

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 66, S MISS 13

WEEK 3 - BC

FSU Projection - FSU 49, BC 14

BC Projection - FSU 40, BC 13

Average - FSU 44, BC 14

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 31, BC 29

WEEK 4 - CLEM

FSU Projection - FSU 31, CLEM 17

CLEM Projection - FSU 28, CLEM 23

Average - FSU 30, CLEM 20

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 31, CLEM 24

WEEK 6 - VT

FSU Projection - FSU 38, VT 20

VT Projection - FSU 38, VT 13

Average - FSU 38, VT 17

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 39, VT 17 (!!!!!)

WEEK 7 - CUSE

FSU Projection - FSU 40, CUSE 17

CUSE Projection - FSU 35, CUSE 14

Average - FSU 37, CUSE 16

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 41, CUSE 3

WEEK 8 - DUKE

FSU Projection - FSU 31, DUKE 21

DUKE Projections - FSU 17, Duke 20

Average - FSU 24, DUKE 21

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 38, DUKE 20

WEEK 9 - WAKE

FSU Projection - FSU 43, WAKE 14

WAKE Projection - FSU 33, Wake 13

Average - FSU 38, WAKE 13

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 41, WAKE 16

WEEK 10 - PITT

FSU Projection - FSU 48, PITT 13

PITT Projection - FSU 41, PITT 13

Average - FSU 45, PITT 13

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 24, PITT 7

WEEK 11 - MIA

FSU Projection - FSU 35, MIA 20

MIA Projection - FSU 27, MIA 20

Average - FSU 31, MIA 20

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 27, MIA 20

WEEK 12 - UNA (BYE, NOT CALCULATED)

WEEK 13 - UF

FSU Projection - FSU 45, UF 17

UF Projection - FSU 37, UF 17

Average - FSU 41, UF 17

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 24, UF 15

CHAMP WEEK - LOU

FSU Projection - FSU 34, LOU 20

LOU Projection - FSU 35, LOU 21

Average - FSU 35, LOU 21

ACTUAL RESULT - FSU 16, LOU 6

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