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Digging into the data: FSU 24, N.C. State 20

Let’s break it down.

Every week Bill Connelly publishes his advanced box scores on Let’s get in to some of the data from Florida State’s 24-20 win over N.C. State.


  • Florida State had a decent success rate of 51 percent. That is pretty good.
  • The offensive line blocked very well and was probably the best position group on the night.
  • N.C. State loaded up to stop the run and was committed to forcing FSU to pass if it was to win.
  • Deondre Francois has got to get better with his accuracy, especially in ideal throwing conditions. Francois was just 11-21 for 161 yards and a sack on standard downs. That is abysmal. With teams loading up against Florida State, FSU must be able to hit throws against easy looks.
  • Francois was actually a lot better throwing when N.C. State knew he had to throw, going 11-18 for 169 yards. This is even more impressive, as most of FSU’s drops came on these throws. The vast majority of these instances were on 2nd down and 8+, where Francois had a success rate of 70% on those throws, compared to just 20% on 3rd and 5+.
  • Five drops on 39 attempts is not good from the receivers, though they did make a number of tough catches on bad throws to help balance it out.
  • (This isn’t from the stats, but upon reviewing the film, it looks like FSU may have run to the wrong side a handful of times, dooming the play from the start).
  • FSU is one of just two teams (Louisville) to gain six yards/play or more against the Wolfpack. That’s solid, though FSU’s offense was not great.
  • Florida State couldn’t hit any explosive runs. 0.52 IsoPP is rather poor. But it had 1.39 IsoPP throwing the football.
  • FSU was great with cashing in its scoring opportunities. 6.0 points/opportunity (drives inside 40) is awesome.
  • Starting field position at its own 22 was terrible.


  • The defense held N.C. State to a success rate of 39 percent.
  • FSU’s defense had great success against the run, allowing a success rate of just 28%. However, on the runs that were successful for the Wolfpack, they typically went for big yards, for an IsoPP of 1.48.
  • N.C. State’s passing on first down and short downs was pretty boom/bust, with a low success rate but high explosiveness.
  • There’s great contrast here: Only 27% of N.C. State’s first down runs gained four yards or more. But NCST was patient with the run, with a 50% success rate running the football on 2nd and 7+. This set up a few more manageable third downs.
  • The Wolfpack made some big time plays that were just enough to get a first down, but at other times defensive mistakes were the cause.