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Digging into the data: FSU 24, N.C. State 20

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Let’s break it down.

Every week Bill Connelly publishes his advanced box scores on FootballStudyHall.com. Let’s get in to some of the data from Florida State’s 24-20 win over N.C. State.

Offense

  • Florida State had a decent success rate of 51 percent. That is pretty good.
  • The offensive line blocked very well and was probably the best position group on the night.
  • N.C. State loaded up to stop the run and was committed to forcing FSU to pass if it was to win.
  • Deondre Francois has got to get better with his accuracy, especially in ideal throwing conditions. Francois was just 11-21 for 161 yards and a sack on standard downs. That is abysmal. With teams loading up against Florida State, FSU must be able to hit throws against easy looks.
  • Francois was actually a lot better throwing when N.C. State knew he had to throw, going 11-18 for 169 yards. This is even more impressive, as most of FSU’s drops came on these throws. The vast majority of these instances were on 2nd down and 8+, where Francois had a success rate of 70% on those throws, compared to just 20% on 3rd and 5+.
  • Five drops on 39 attempts is not good from the receivers, though they did make a number of tough catches on bad throws to help balance it out.
  • (This isn’t from the stats, but upon reviewing the film, it looks like FSU may have run to the wrong side a handful of times, dooming the play from the start).
  • FSU is one of just two teams (Louisville) to gain six yards/play or more against the Wolfpack. That’s solid, though FSU’s offense was not great.
  • Florida State couldn’t hit any explosive runs. 0.52 IsoPP is rather poor. But it had 1.39 IsoPP throwing the football.
  • FSU was great with cashing in its scoring opportunities. 6.0 points/opportunity (drives inside 40) is awesome.
  • Starting field position at its own 22 was terrible.

Defense

  • The defense held N.C. State to a success rate of 39 percent.
  • FSU’s defense had great success against the run, allowing a success rate of just 28%. However, on the runs that were successful for the Wolfpack, they typically went for big yards, for an IsoPP of 1.48.
  • N.C. State’s passing on first down and short downs was pretty boom/bust, with a low success rate but high explosiveness.
  • There’s great contrast here: Only 27% of N.C. State’s first down runs gained four yards or more. But NCST was patient with the run, with a 50% success rate running the football on 2nd and 7+. This set up a few more manageable third downs.
  • The Wolfpack made some big time plays that were just enough to get a first down, but at other times defensive mistakes were the cause.