Florida State beat Wake Forest 26-19 on Saturday. For a team with such a talent advantage, it was a rather embarrassing performance, and the Seminoles were perhaps fortunate to not end up with a loss.
Using Bill Connelly’s advanced stats from Football Study Hall, we can measure where the game went wrong, and how FSU won it anyway. (Click to enlarge).
- FSU finally got some turnover luck (again, turnovers have a huge luck component). Three of the five the fumbles in the game were recovered by Florida State. Wake Forest could not come down with its interception chance, but Kyle Meyers did catch his off a deflection. Again, turnovers are somewhat the result of good defense, but a lot of luck, too. That’s why it is smarter to rely on playing good defense than on turnovers.
- FSU won a game in which its success rate was 27%. How? 56% of its yards came on three plays.
- The Florida State passing game was horrible, with a 19% success rate. But its’ explosiveness rate of 2.33 is very high.
- FSU’s red zone offense was much better, scoring 4.33 points/opportunity.
- The running backs for Florida State got 37 carries in the game, for 184 yards, good for 5.0 yards/play.
- NyQuan Murray is having a horrible season to date. Targeted 22 times, caught 10, for 60 yards. That is 2.7 yards/target. When asked what FSU can do to get Murray more involved in the offense, Fisher said “Run good routes.” “Get open.” “Catch the ball.” Ouch.
- The Florida State defense was very good at limiting Wake Forest’s huge explosive plays. Wake had nine pass completions of 15+ yards, but it did not have the huge bomb play.
- FSU’s defense limited Wake Forest to 2.88 points/opportunity (opportunity= a drive in which the opposition has a first down inside FSU’s 40).