The Florida State Seminoles lost to the Miami Hurricanes 28-27 on the road Saturday. But the game component suggest the game was not as close as the final score.
Using Bill Connelly’s advanced stats from Football Study Hall, we can measure where the game.
Florida State had a 12% postgame win expectancy.
Explosiveness: Miami outgained FSU by 33% per-play.
Florida State’s offense was better in the first half than the second half, but it was more bad in the first and terrible in the second. 3.08 yards/play is not a recipe to win a game. Not that Miami’s was good, but there is a line between bad and terrible and below average.
Efficiency: Miami’s success rate (35%) was far higher than FSU’s (26%)
When a team outgains an opponent by 33% per-play and its success rate is 35% higher than its opponent, it should absolutely expect to win and win decisively.
Miami had more points per scoring opportunity (4.67 v. 4) and had one extra scoring opportunity.
That margin isn’t that big. Moving on.
Miami had a 105-yard edge in field position.
Miami’s average starting field position was its 38.8 and FSU’s was its 31.7. Over 15 drives, that comes out to 105 yards.
Miami was +1.27 in turnovers luck
FSU continues to be a very unlucky team when it comes to turnovers.
If they lined up and played tomorrow, I’d expect Miami to blow out FSU
There is no evidence that FSU can consistently move the ball with its offensive line against a defensive line like Miami. My original pick on the game was Miami 35-13, and if I had to do it over I’d probably take Miami 27-7 or something.