Nolecast preview: Florida State at Notre Dame

Bud Elliott and Ingram Smith return with a Nolecast breaking down FSU at Notre Dame. The Nolecast is the No. 1 Florida State Seminoles podcast.

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Show notes are as follows, roughly in order

Show outline as follows, roughly.

40% chance of snow, temps in the 20s.

Let’s understand off the bat just how good Notre Dame has been since it switched QBs to Ian Book. Win expectancy of 100, 98, 94, 97, 100, and 97.

Notre Dame offense (27th, including both QBs) v. FSU defense

• Spread, shotgun offense. Physical.
• Utilize pace well (20th nationally)
• QB Ian Book has been great. 74.5% completion rate. Only a 3.8% sack rate (huge improvement over Wimbush). Gets the ball out on time. 8.3 yards/attempt. 13.3% marginal efficiency. 15-4 TD/INT. Capable runner. But... now he’s out.
• RB Dexter Williams has returned from suspension and has been great. 8.87 yards/attempt
• WRs. Excellent size outside with Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool. Chris Finke is a dependable slot
• TE Alize Mack very athletic, but learning
• OL. Have been inconsistent, but there is talent here. There’s a good chance to disrupt them up front.
• Notre Dame will look to attack FSU’s safeties and linebackers with first-down passes, which is something they do a lot.
• The hope is to maybe see some different combinations at linebacker

Notre Dame defense (No. 3 in the nation) v. FSU offense

• No. 19 in efficiency
• No. 6 in explosiveness
• No. 8 at preventing finishing drives
• Tremendous rush defense (15th nationally)
• Also great against the pass (14th)
• Defensive line v. FSU OL. THE BIGGEST ISSUE EVERY WEEK, BIGGER THAN ALL OTHER ISSUES ON THIS TEAM COMBINED. 129th in opportunity rate for its backs. (ND 11th in allowed). 129th in rushing marginal efficiency. (ND 24th in allowed)
• 126th in stuff rate (ND 50th in allowed). 127th in marginal efficiency in standard downs. (ND 16th in allowed). DT Jerry Tillery and DE Daelin Hayes and Julian Okwara will likely kill FSU up front. Jajuan Williams getting some tackle reps at practice again, and Brady Scott getting some reps at center. Maybe a preview of the future for Scott?. Minshew still hurt
• Linebackers. Very active, know what they are doing, and physical. Tevon Coney has 10.5 run stuffs on the year.
• DBs. Very few mistakes in the back end, all upperclassmen. Good blitz team in that they rarely get burned.
• Will FSU really start 12? If so, why? (Discussion). Redshirt for Blackman? Taggart believes what you do in practice matters (Deondre is better in practice). The gap on the field is not huge. Redshirt discussion.

Prediction

Questions

• Matthew: With four games at most left on the schedule, can we expect to see any of the freshmen who have yet to play this year?
• Tray: I asked this question earlier in the year and I think it’s even more relative after what happened at LB last week. Is Amari Gainer close to being ready to get more meaningful snaps? With his size and physicality and looking at offenses for ND, BC, and UF, are we not better off getting him in there almost because of his size alone? He may not be ready but it’s not like we’re taking much risk leaving the other guys in vs those physical offenses. Where am I going wrong?
• Matthew: Love, love, love listening to the Nolecast! Buying bottle after bottle of LA Hot Sauce and eating at MadSo when I’m in Tallahassee.It’s been a tougher than expected year. Only way out of this is recruiting. It’s Taggart’s strength. But Crystal Ball’s are showing Oregon for KT, Dean isn’t coming, Neal heading to Bama....where is the silver lining?
• Kevin: Love the show. Here’s something I’ve being kicking around since arguing with FSU fans on Facebook is exhausting. Would it be unreasonable to take this as Willie Taggart’s redshirt year? Given the crazy amount of concentration of injuries/attrition to the offensive line, does this year become an evaluation year? I’ve been a large proponent of Taggart getting a standard 3 years to right the ship but with how things are going now, can we assume he’ll get 4 years for sure?
• Bud’s note: I think 4 years is the standard.
• Brandon: Hey guys! Thanks to you, Louisiana Hot Sauce, and the folks at For the Table, and Resolution for a great show - always a good listen!
• Prior to this game, I think I was in the minority of the fan base. I was willing to take the lumps of this year (and maybe next) in order to see Willie’s system come to fruition in the future. I was a little concerned therefore, when I heard that Walt Bell took over play calling duties. Not that I didn’t think Walt called a good game, and not that I think it can’t be a short term fix. But I took this as an indicator of Willie questioning his own vision. Am I wrong to be concerned at all? Wasn’t a key part of hiring Willie the fact that we would (eventually) see HIS explosive offense come to fruition? I’d be curious to hear your thoughts. Thanks again for a great show! Stay steady five stars!
• Matt: Can you recall off the top of your head such a massive whiff on recruits as FSU experienced in 15 and 16? You always said the “hit rate” was unsustainable but if you go back through the 15 and 16 classes, they are horrible.