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Vegas has Florida State as more than a touchdown underdog in 3 games

Las Vegas thinks FSU will lose three or four games in the regular season.

NCAA Football: Florida State Spring Game Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

The Southpoint Casino in Las Vegas released its too early Games of the Year lines. Florida State is featured in four games.

The Seminoles are an underdog of eight at Miami, 10 hosting Clemson, and nine at Notre Dame. While Clemson is considered a better team than Notre Dame, the lines are so close because of home-field advantage. Miami has not beat FSU by 8+ in Miami since 1994.

Those are hardly surprising, since FSU’s over/under win total is 8.5, so 8-4 or 9-3 are the most most likely expected outcomes.

The Seminoles are favored by seven over the Florida Gators.

FSU’s line against Virginia Tech was previously released, seeing the Seminoles as favorited of five points in Tallahassee.

I do want to take a second to brag on my scarily close guess at these from May 18.

I don’t know how anyone can be supremely confident in [the higher line] being at Notre Dame or hosting Clemson.

On a neutral site it’s Clemson, but both teams are pretty loaded.

Let’s assume that on a neutral site FSU would be an underdog of 12 against Clemson and 5 against Notre Dame.

That would imply that FSU would be an underdog of about 8.5 against Clemson in Tallahassee and an underdog of about 8.5 at Notre Dame. You can play with these numbers however you want, but I think if you work it out, it’ll be within a point or two of each other.

And they were.


Florida is a 3.5-point home underdog hosting LSU ... Clemson is favored by 20 in Death Valley over N.C. State ... Georgia is favored by 15 on a neutral field over Florida ... Clemson is favored by 20.5 hosting Louisville ... Miami is favored by three at Virginia Tech ... Clemson is favored by 19 hosting South Carolina.

Note that these are opening lines. The limits are low in May, and these will move a lot by the time the season gets here. Still, they are a decent baseline for expectations.