clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Using Vegas’ early odds to guess at FSU’s other game lines

Based on what we know, how much of the schedule odds can be filled in?

NCAA Football: Florida State Spring Game Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Odds for five FSU games are now available: Virginia Tech, Florida, Clemson, at Miami, and at Notre Dame.

But what about games against N.C. State, Boston College, and Louisville?

By seeing how Vegas feels about common opponents, I can take a stab at what the lines might be.

What we know

  • Vegas has Clemson as roughly 13.5 points better than FSU on a neutral site. 10+3.5=13.5.
  • Vegas has the Tigers as roughly 17 points better than N.C. State and Louisville on a neutral field. 20 (or 20.5)-3.5=17.

I can’t find a common data point for Boston College, but can make shaky guesses at the Louisville and N.C. State games.

On a neutral field, according to the extremely limited Vegas data, it looks like FSU would be favored by 3.5 points over Louisville and N.C. State.

But given that these games are on the road, home field must be added in. That would mean that, based on these numbers, FSU would be favored by 0 or 1 points in its games at N.C. State and at Louisville.

I think these are games many fans are counting as very likely wins, if not slam dunks. This exercise suggests perhaps those expectations are too lofty.

It’s also possible that the Clemson or FSU lines are adjusted, and that FSU swells to a larger favorite on the road in these two contests, or that it ends up an underdog. Who knows. This is just a fun exercise based on very limited sample set.