We’ve not made it a habit of keeping you updated on Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings on a weekly basis — yet — for a reason. Although they offer the best assessments of college football teams, they’re also much more accurate with a better sample size. But now that we’re eight games into the 2019 season, let’s have at it.
New to SP+ rankings? Here’s a description of them, in Connelly’s own words:
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
SP+ rankings also exclude garbage time— which I discussed yesterday. Because Bill is smart and knows that garbage time is not an honest reflection of a team.
The latest SP+ rankings, accounting for all 130 FBS programs, have Florida State 47th, overall. The Seminoles’ offense is ranked 46th, its defense 62nd, and its special teams 108th.
Curious about context, regarding FSU’s opponents this season? Check it out:
- Boise State: No. 37
- UL-Monroe: No. 115
- Virginia: No. 41
- Louisville: No. 61
- NC State: No. 58
- Clemson: No. 5
- Wake Forest: No. 49
- Syracuse: No. 79
But to the most pressing issue: the Seminoles’ Saturday matchup with Miami. SP+ has the Hurricanes ranked 30th, overall, better than every team the ’Noles have faced, save Clemson. The ’Canes will hit Tallahassee with an offense ranked 71st, a stout No. 14 defense, and special teams placing 83rd.