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FSU football’s SP+ ranks drop across the board after bye week


COLLEGE FOOTBALL: AUG 31 Boise State v Florida State Photo by Logan Stanford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Florida State didn’t play on Saturday, but still found a way to slide in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. Welcome back to 2019 Seminole football— just sorta seems par for the course, doesn’t it?

The ’Noles were 48th, overall, last week, but dropped back down to No. 51 after the weekend’s games. Their offensive rank fell from 40th to 42nd, their defense from 62nd to 64th, and special teams dipped from 93rd to 97th.

Of course, the Florida Gators await the ’Noles in Gainesville. UF is ranked 9th overall, with the No. 19 offense, No. 9 defense, and No. 19 special teams.

As far as other teams with the same — or worse — records ahead of FSU (6-5) goes, that list consisted of eight teams last week. It’s nearly doubled.

  • No. 17 Washington (6-5)
  • No. 25 Miami (6-5) (Somehow, the Hurricanes retain the exact same spot after losing to FIU)
  • No. 26 Washington State (6-5)
  • No. 31 Texas (6-5)
  • No. 35 TCU (5-6)
  • No. 36 Missouri (5-6)
  • No. 38 Tennessee (6-5)
  • No. 39 Tulane (6-5)
  • No. 40 Michigan State (5-6)
  • No. 41 Arizona State (6-5)
  • No. 43 South Carolina (4-7)
  • No. 45 North Carolina (5-6)
  • No. 46 Texas Tech (4-7)
  • No. 47 Kentucky (6-5)
  • No. 49 Mississippi State (5-6)

Power-five teams with records equal to or better than that of the Seminoles, ranked below Florida State:

  • No. 54 Wake Forest (8-3)
  • No. 56 Illinois (6-5)
  • No. 57 Louisville (7-4)
  • No. 58 Pittsburgh (7-4)
  • No. 84 Cal (6-5)

I’ll paste Connelly’s own explanation of his methodology below, so we don’t have to rehash it in the comments section.

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.