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FSU football’s final regular-season SP+ rankings

Too high? Too low? Spot on?

Florida State v Florida Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Florida State saw another drop in its SP+ rankings after losing to Florida on Saturday, and the Seminoles have finished the 2019 regular season ranked No. 57 overall among FBS teams, down six spots from last week. The FSU offense fell from 42nd to 45th, the defense dropped from 64th to 68th, and the special teams held at 97th.

Here are the teams with records equal to Florida State’s 6-6, or worse, ranked ahead of the ’Noles:

  • No. 25 Washington State (6-6)
  • No. 26 Miami (6-6)
  • No. 35 Missouri (6-6)
  • No. 38 TCU (5-7)
  • No. 40 North Carolina (6-6)
  • No. 43 Michigan State (6-6)
  • No. 45 Tulane (6-6)
  • No. 48 South Carolina (4-8)
  • No. 49 Mississippi State (6-6)
  • No. 51 Texas Tech (4-8)
  • No. 52 Nebraska (5-7)
  • No. 53 Ole Miss (4-8)
  • No. 54 Ohio (6-6)

And here are the P5 squads with equal or better records ranked below FSU:

  • No. 59 Illinois (6-6)
  • No. 77 Cal (7-5)
  • No. 82 Boston College (6-6)

As you can see, the SP+ system isn’t exactly a big fan of Florida State’s efficiency— or lack thereof.

Again, here’s Bill Connelly’s own explanation of how his SP+ rankings are calculated:

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.