Where will FSU be in initial College Football Rankings?

After nine weeks of college football, things are finally headed to the final stretch.

The first edition of the 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings will debut on Tuesday, released during ESPN’s rankings release show starting at 7 p.m. ET.

How does the committee rank teams?

From the College Football Playoff website:

The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable.

1. Each selection committee member will create a list of the 30 teams he or she believes to be the best in the country, in no particular order. Teams listed by three or more members will remain under consideration. At the conclusion of any round, other teams can be added to the group of teams under consideration by a vote of three or more members.

2. Each member will list the best six teams, in no particular order. The six teams receiving the most votes will comprise the pool for the first ranking step. This is known as the “listing step.”

3. In the first ranking step, each member will rank those six teams, one through six, with one being the best. The best team in each member’s ranking will receive one point; second‐best, two points, etc. The members’ rankings will be added together and the three teams receiving the fewest points will become the top three seeds. The three teams that were not seeded will be held over for the next ranking step.

4. Each member will list the six best remaining teams, in no particular order. The three teams receiving the most votes will be added to the three teams held over to comprise the next ranking step.

5. Steps No. 3 and 4 will be repeated until 25 teams have been seeded. There will be seven rounds of voting; each round will consist of a “listing step” and a “ranking step”.

Some additional context, from CBS Sports

Thankfully, the committee’s definition of “ranked opponents” is different than what you’re used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week’s CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. when the games are played. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine “ranked opponents;” in fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.

Basically, while the rankings will mirror the AP and Coaches Polls in some instances, they’re more or less moot at this point in the season. The committee is known to make some interesting decisions to kick off the rankings, knowing full well that things will sort themselves out by the time conference championships wrap.

Where will Florida State, who currently ranks No. 4 in both polls and have peaked at No. 3, be slotted when the committee releases the rankings?

Here’s a look at how the Seminoles rank in some key categories:

• FPI: No. 7 (behind No. 6 Georgia, No. 5 Penn State, No. 4 Oregon, No. 3 Alabama, No. 2 Michigan, No. 1 Ohio State)
• SP+: No. 8 (behind No. 7 Washington, No. 6 Alabama, No. 5 Texas, No. 4 Oregon, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 2 Georgia and No. 1 Michigan)
• Strength of Record*: No. 2 (behind No. 2 Ohio State)
• Strength of Schedule: No. 49
• SP+ Resume**: No. 3 (behind No. 2 Ohio State and No. 1 Michigan)
• Overall Efficiency (FPI): No. 4 (behind No. 3 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, No. 1 Michigan)

*Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have team’s record or better, given the schedule.

*(1) How the average SP+ top-five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin), and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1)

With those numbers in mind and how much the committee has weighed strength of schedule and record in early rankings in the past, the top 10 of Tuesday’s rankings should look something like:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Florida State
4. Georgia
5. Washington
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Penn State
10. Ole Miss

Why Ohio State at No. 1? The Buckeyes likely have the best pair of wins in the eyes of the committee (Notre Dame and Penn State) and are well-regarded by both advanced and typical stats.

Michigan’s dominance of its schedule so far puts it at No. 2 — the eyeball test confirms that the Wolverines are very likely the best team in the nation at the moment, but a strength of schedule ranking of No. 111 will likely force the committee to give the No. 1 nod to another squad.

And the big question — why Georgia so low? Honestly, it’s conceivable that the Bulldogs could end up No. 5 behind Washington. The defending champs haven’t quite dominated to the degree that Michigan has to make up for the team’s schedule so far and there’s always a nice little shocker to kick off the Playoff Rankings. The slotting, of course, means nothing in the grand scheme since if Georgia runs the table, it’ll be a debate between them and the B1G winner (assuming they end the year undefeated as well) for the top spot.

Florida State, by virtue of a lackluster ACC, won’t be pushing for the top spot sans upsets ahead of it, but given the quality of the Seminoles’ major wins and the way that the team has performed in 2023 there shouldn’t be any question of FSU’s place in the top four should it continue to rack up victories.

AP Top 25 Poll: Week 10

1. Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
2. Michigan Wolverines (8-0)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
4. Florida State Seminoles (8-0)
5. Washington Huskies (8-0)
6. Oregon Ducks (7-1)
7. Texas Longhorns (7-1)
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1)
10. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1)
11. Ole Miss Rebels (7-1)
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2)
13. LSU Tigers (6-2)
14. Missouri Tigers (7-1)
15. Louisville Cardinals (7-1)
16. Oregon State Beavers (6-2)
17. Air Force Falcons (8-0)
18. Utah Utes (6-2)
19. Tennessee Volunteers (6-2)
20. UCLA Bruins (6-2)
21. Tulane Green Wave (7-1)
22. Kansas Jayhawks (6-2)
23. James Madison Dukes (8-0)
24. USC Trojans (7-2)
25. Kansas State Wildcats (6-2)

USA Today Coaches Poll: Week 10

1. Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
2. Michigan Wolverines (8-0)
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
4. Florida State Seminoles (8-0)
5. Washington Huskies (8-0)
6. Texas Longhorns (7-1)
7. Oregon Ducks (7-1)
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1)
10. Ole Miss Rebels (7-1)
11. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1)
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2)
13. LSU Tigers (6-2)
14. Missouri Tigers (7-1)
15. Louisville Cardinals (7-1)
16. Tennessee Volunteers (6-2)
17. Air Force Falcons (8-0)
18. Utah Utes (6-2)
19. Oregon State Beavers (6-2)
20. UCLA Bruins (6-2)
21. Tulane Green Wave (7-1)
22. USC Trojans (7-2)
23. Kansas Jayhawks (6-2)
24. James Madison Dukes (8-0)
25. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-2)

Odds to win 2023 College Football Playoff, via DraftKings

1. Michigan Wolverines (+240)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (+240)
3. Florida State Seminoles (+600)
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (+750)
5. Washington Huskies (+1400)
6. Alabama Crimson Tide (+1400)
7. Oregon Ducks (+1400)
8. Texas Longhorns (+1600)
9. Oklahoma Sooners (+4000)
10. LSU Tigers (+4000)