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Florida State vs. Virginia Tech: 3 key bets for Seminoles vs. Hokies

Predicting the over/under Keon Coleman receiving yards, the score, and Jordan Travis interceptions

By Jordan_Silversmith
/ new
Charles Mays/Tomahawk Nation

The bye week was perfect timing for the Seminoles and our gambling picks. After coming out of the gates blistering, we finished 1-2 against Clemson, bringing our yearly total to 8-12.

With a week to regroup and dissect the film, these three prop bets should be ironclad going into the ACC conference home opener.

Three picks. Three winners.

Here we go.

All lines are presented by DraftKings — as always, gamble at your own risk.

Keon Coleman O/U 71.5 Receiving Yards

Safe to say, Boston College was an outlier. After not recording a reception in Chesnut Hill, Coleman bounced back with a game-winning touchdown against Clemson to go along with 86 yards receiving. After two strong weeks of practice, the Michigan State transfer should look to pick up where he left off against the Hokies on Saturday afternoon.

This play is more of a bet on Keon being extraordinary than anything else. Even though the Hokies’ highest-ranked corner on PFF only puts up a grade of 66.4(Dorian Strong), their defense only allowed for 155. 8 passing yards per game during their first four games of the year. Like Clemson, Virginia Tech has no corner in their rotation under 6’0. Keon Coleman should still burst through. The re-emergence of Johnny Wilson on the outside could allow for more 1 on 1 opportunities for Coleman, and when #4 is on an island, Jordan Travis throws it his way every time.

Furthermore, Florida State will look to get its running game going early, producing play-action as the game progresses. Keon Coleman thrives in the passing game over the middle of the field, and those attempts should be there all afternoon long. Coleman looks head and shoulders above the other players on the field, resulting in another jaw-dropping afternoon.

The pick: Over

Total Points: 53 O/U

What if I told you that Florida State and Virginia Tech have had 6 of 9 games go over, and 2 of 3 games that did not were by half a point (FSU Clemson at 55 when the line was 55.5, VT at 41 when the line was 41.5)?

Even with solid defenses on both sides, points will be scored in this game.

Each team has a glaring weakness on the defensive side. The Florida State running quarterback struggles have been well-documented to start the year. They almost lost it all in Chesnut Hill a few weeks ago and allowed game-altering runs to Jayden Daniels and Cade Klubnik. Coming into Tallahassee this weekend is a VT signal caller who rushed the ball 36(!) times over the last two games. The Seminoles will undoubtedly have a plan in place for the Drones’ threat on the ground, but the Hokies will be able to move the ball. Add on top of that the strength of their offense is upfront with no lineman under 6’3, and there will be points to be had for Brett Pry’s crew.

Conversely, no defense can slow down the Seminoles for 60 minutes. They continued their streak last week of scoring 30+ points in a game dating back to last season. Coming off a bye, Jordan Travis looks rejuvenated and ready to go. The offense looked better than the defense on Tuesday and Wednesday, the first time I recall the offense winning both days since the season began. Mike Norvell and Alex Atkins talked about how much healthier they are upfront, allowing for more precision in the run game, which is the weakness of the Virginia Tech defense. Florida State, off the bye, should have some new plays up their sleeve, resulting in another showtime-like performance on Saturday afternoon.

The pick: Over

Jordan Travis O/U 0.5 Int

Fun fact: Jordan Travis has thrown one interception in a regular season game in his last eight games. It's true; since his terrible first-half INT against LSU this year, he has yet to produce a turnover through the air dating back to the Miami game in November last year. I expect more of the same from the Seminole signal caller this weekend.

While being stingy against the pass, the Virginia Tech defense could not even turn over QB-turned-TE Phil Jurkeovic last week, and they only have one cornerback with an INT through 5 games this year. Jordan Travis should be in complete control on Saturday, with healthy options to throw to and a healthy offensive line in front of him. His largest stride this year as a passer has been his ability to dissect defenses and put the ball in the right places. Without the roar of Death Valley, #13 should be able to get to the proper protection and play, which will protect the ball and move efficiently down the field. Look for J-Trav to continue his streak of no turnovers and being a difference-maker for the Seminoles.

The pick: Under (-130)

There you go, friends, three picks, three winners; everyone enjoy Saturday afternoon!

Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Tech Hokies: How to watch

Date

Saturday, October 7

Time

3:30 p.m.

Watch

ABC

Stream

ESPN

Listen

Seminoles Radio Network, SiriusXM RADIO FSU Broadcast: CH. 81

Florida State vs. Virginia Tech: Game notes

» Florida State returns to action after an open date following its 31-24 win at Clemson. The victory snapped the Tigers’ 25-game home winning streak against ACC opponents and improved the Seminoles to 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the ACC.

» Florida State is No. 5 in this week’s Associated Press poll. It is the fifth consecutive week FSU has been ranked in the top-5, the program’s longest streak since 2013-14 when Florida State was in the top-5 for 27 consecutive polls.

» FSU trailed 10-0 and 17-7 in the second quarter of its win at Clemson, which marked the 12th time in Mike Norvell’s career as a head coach his team erased a deficit of at least 10 points in a victory. Clemson entered the game 83-1 at home under Dabo Swinney during games it held a 10-point lead.

» The Seminoles extended their winning streak to 10 games, the longest active streak in the ACC and the 4th-longest active streak in the country.

» FSU has scored at least 30 points in 10 straight games, the longest active streak in the ACC, the 2nd-longest active streak in the nation and the program’s longest 30-point stretch since the 2013 national championship season.

» Mike Norvell is 8-2 (.800) in his head coaching career following an in-season open date and 26-9 (.743) as a head coach with more than one week to prepare for an opponent including season openers, mid-week games and bowl games.

» Florida State’s 173 points are its most through four games since 2013- when the Seminoles scored 205 total points vs. Pitt, Nevada, Bethune-Cookman and Boston College - and the 7th-most through four games in program history. It is FSU’s 4th-highest point total after playing four FBS opponents to start a season and most since 1994.

» FSU is a perfect 17-for-17 in Red Zone trips this season. The Seminoles’ 17 Red Zone trips are 2nd nationally among teams that have scored on every Red Zone opportunity this season. FSU’s 82.4 touchdown percentage in the Red Zone is 8th in the country overall and 2nd among teams that are perfect inside the Red Zone.

» The Seminoles are one of three teams nationally to have a receiver and a rusher with a three-touchdown game this season. Keon Coleman caught a career-high three scores vs. No. 5 LSU, and Trey Benson tied his single-game career-high with three rushing scores vs. Southern Miss. Coleman is one of 19 receivers nationally with a three-touchdown game this year, and Benson is one of 32 players with three rushing scores in a game.

» Florida State’s defense has faced 30 plays inside their 10-yard line this season and allowed just eight touchdowns. In the 45-24 win over No. 5 LSU, the Seminoles faced 10 snaps inside their own 5-yard line and allowed only two scores. On LSU’s first drive of the game, the Tigers had six plays inside the five-yard line, including four snaps from the 1-yard line, and the FSU defense forced a turnover on downs with a 13-yard sack on 4th-and-1.

» The Seminoles have scored on seven of their eight opening drives of a half this season. In those half-opening drives, Florida State has scored four touchdowns and three field goals for an average of 4.6 points per drive.

» Florida State made 10 tackles for loss while allowing 0 TFLs, including sacks, in their win at Boston College. It was the first time in recorded program history FSU did not allow a TFL against an FBS opponent and the first time nationally a team had 10 TFLs while allowing 0 against a P5 opponent since Missouri’s 2017 win over Florida. The only other time FSU did not allow a tackle for loss in a game was 2012 vs. FCS Murray State.

» FSU scored 31 points after halftime vs. No. 5 LSU, the most second-half points against a top-5 opponent in program history. It also was the most second-half points nationally against a top-5 opponent in a non-playoff game since September 26, 2020, when Kansas State scored 31 second-half points at No. 3 Oklahoma. That has only happened two other times since the beginning of the 2014 season, both in 2018, when Purdue scored 35 second-half points against No. 2 Ohio State and Ohio State scored 38 second- half points against No. 4 Michigan.

» Florida State’s four 4th-down conversions vs. Southern Miss are tied for the highest single-game total in the ACC and 5th-highest nationally this season.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Tech Hokies

Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Tech Hokies

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

2023 ACC Championship Odds, via DraftKings

  1. Florida State Seminoles (-160)
  2. Miami Hurricanes (+600)
  3. Louisville Cardinals (+750)
  4. North Carolina Tar Heels (+750)
  5. Duke Blue Devils (+1200)
  6. Clemson Tigers (+1800)
  7. Syracuse Orange (+4500)
  8. NC State Wolfpack (+8000)
  9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+12000)
  10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+15000)
  11. Virginia Tech Hokies (+20000)
  12. Pittsburgh Panthers (+30000)
  13. Boston College Eagles (+50000)
  14. Virginia Cavaliers (+50000

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

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