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Florida State vs. Miami: 3 key bets for Seminoles vs. Hurricanes

Predicting the over/under for Jordan Travis’ passing yards, Xavier Restrepo's receiving yards, and an anytime TD scorer

Peyton Baker/Tomahawk Nation

Florida State struggled in moments against the Panthers last weekend, and so did our picks.

Konata Mumpfield’s explosive 80-yard catch and fumble made our picks go 1/3 on the day, bringing our picks to a 14/27 total on the year, just above 50%.

But just like FSU across plenty of games this season, we’re going to find wins in the face of adversity.

Mike Norvell said that nobody needed a motivational speech this week due to the opponent, and neither did I to find the best props of the weekend. These plays should have plenty of juice in front of a rocking Doak Cambell Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Three picks. Three winners.

Here we go.

All lines are presented by DraftKings — as always, gamble at your own risk.

Jordan Travis O/U 271.5 Passing Yards

Going back to the well two weeks in a row.

Last week, Jordan Travis passed for a season-high 360 yards after throwing for 359 the game before against Wake Forest. The sixth-year starter is starting to take the season over. As discussed last week, he had a few hiccups during the early part of the season, but the kinks are ironed out. Some throws he made at practice this week looked like any elite football thrower. His intermediate throws are coming out on time, on target, and with precision to the highest degree. The deep balls floated majestically in the air and frequently hit the receivers in the numbers without breaking stride. Practice makes perfect, and after seeing his execution this week, I expect another Heisman-worthy performance.

Jordan Travis proved last week that he can throw to any player on the roster, but he should get a boost this week. Mike Norvell spoke confidently on the progress from Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman this week, and they should give it a go Saturday afternoon. The offense hums at a different level with those two in the game, and Jordan Travis should be able to raise his efficiency from a pedestrian 61% completion percentage last week. Meanwhile, Miami could go in the opposite direction with their injury woes. Jaden Davis and Daryl Porter Jr. both left their game against N.C. State early last weekend, and Mario Cristobal did not commit to them playing this weekend. Losing Porter Jr., the Hurricane’s top cover corner, would be a severe blow to an already suspect pass defense.

From a schematic standpoint, JT should look to take this game over. Miami likes to play plus 1 in the run game and is stout up front. Last week, Florida State struggled to find consistency with their backs and against physical defensive fronts. In Travis’ final chapter of this rivalry, Saturday should be the perfect storm to blast past the Hurricanes.

The pick: Over

Xavier Restrepo O/U 53.5 Passing Yards

Even with the up-and-down play of Tyler Van Dyke, #7 for the Hurricanes will always be in the mix. The South Florida native leads the country in targets and is the focal point of a reasonably deep receiver room. In a rivalry game, the stars need to shine, and Miami will get Restrepo involved early and often. In the two most important games for Mario Cristobal’s team to date, North Carolina and Clemson, the Junior finished with 7 and 11 receptions, respectively. Miami needs to get Van Dyke in rhythm early, and that should lead to quick passes to his favorite target.

Although Saturday should be as healthy as the Seminoles have been in a month, there are some question marks about the health of those in the back end. Jarrian Jones did not play against Pittsburgh, and his status is up in the air. Although Renardo Green and Fentrell Cypress are healthy, those two rarely leave their side of the field. Adam Fuller does not usually have corners follow receivers, and Miami will line up Restrepo anywhere. With Jarrian Jones possibly banged up, Greedy Vance will draw the assignment of covering Restrepo when he lines up in the slot. Vance has played admirably throughout the year, never receiving a PFF coverage grade below 60. The issue is that he has given up a catch every game this year. Even though the Seminole defense will constantly focus on #7, I still expect him to clear the mediocre total of 54 receiving yards.

The pick: Over

Jordan Travis Anytime TD Scorer

Is it clear how I feel about the play of Jordan Travis?

The West Palm Beach native is playing his best football at the best time of the year, and what better way to put his final stamp on this rivalry than with a rushing score? Two reasons explain my confidence in this bet.

FSU may struggle to run the ball. This Miami defensive line is fast, physical, and deep. They rotate bodies and should put multiple players into the NFL during the draft. Ruben Bain, a heavy FSU target during the recruiting cycle last year, grades out as the top freshman defensive player in the country. The Miami defensive front reminds me a lot of how Duke plays along the line of scrimmage with their age, experience, and size. The key to Florida State breaking through the wall in that game was the legs of No. 13. In a game as important as this one, Mike Norvell will fully open up his playbook. That includes a heavy dose of Jordan Travis calling his own number. Travis has rush attempts of 7 or more in his last five games and should be a consistent part of the Seminole offense Saturday afternoon.

Travis should punch his way into the endzone because he elevates his play in the biggest games and when his team needs it most. Last week, when FSU failed to score in the opening 16 minutes, Travis punched the ball in. Last year against Florida, the previous rivalry game played in Doak, JT’s legs were the difference in the game, and he took it upon himself to get the ball into the endzone. Finally, the last time he played Miami at home, a Jordan Travis rushing touchdown put the Seminoles in front for the game-winning score. JT will need a takeover game, and he possesses all the tools to do it.

The pick: Yes (+115)

There you go, friends, three picks, three winners; everyone enjoy Saturday afternoon!


Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes: How to watch

Date

Saturday, November 11th

Time

3:30 p.m.

Watch

ABC

Stream

ESPN

Listen

Seminoles Radio Network, SiriusXM RADIO FSU Broadcast: CH. 136 or 193


Florida State vs. Miami (FL): Game notes

» The Seminoles are 9-0 this season and 7-0 in the ACC, both their best marks since 2014 and the ninth time in program history starting a season at least 9-0, after a 24-7 win at Pitt last week. FSU gained 501 yards of total offense and held the Panthers to 0-of-11 on 3rd-down conversions while grabbing a season-high three takeaways. » Florida State is No. 4 in this week’s Associated Press poll. It is the 10th consecutive week FSU has been ranked in the top-5, the program’s longest streak since 2013-14 when Florida State was in the top-5 for 27 consecutive polls.

» The win over Pitt extended the Seminoles’ winning streak to 15 games, the longest active streak in the ACC and 3rd-longest active streak in the country. During its streak, which is also tied for the 5th-longest in program history, Florida State has outscored its opponents 609-262.

» FSU has held every opponent this season to fewer than 30 points. The nine-game streak is the longest active in the ACC and the 4th-longest active streak in the country. The last time Florida State held at least nine straight opponents to fewer than 30 points was a 12-game streak in 2015.

» The Seminoles boast one of the nation’s best pass defenses, leading the country in opponent completion percentage (48.4) and fewest passing touchdowns allowed (4). FSU’s defense also ranks 4th in opponent passer rating (101.68).

» Florida State (48.4%) and Ohio State (49.8%) are the only teams in the nation forcing more incompletions than completions allowed. The last time a P5 team held its opponents below 50 percent completions in a season was 2018, when Michigan and LSU posted marks of 49.5 and 49.7 percent, respectively, and the last time FSU held its opponents below 50 percent completions for a season was 2012.

» Florida State was the only team in the country that did not allow a passing touchdown in October, and the Seminoles led the nation in opponent completion percentage (41.7), yards per pass allowed (4.2) and opponent passer rating (72.41) in October while also producing the ACC’s best scoring defense (14.0) that ranked 10th nationally. » FSU ranks 16th nationally in red zone defense, allowing points on just 74.1 percent of opponents’ drives that reach the 20-yard line, and its rate of 44.4 percent of red zone drives faced that result in a touchdown is 13th-best.

» Florida State’s offense leads the ACC in fewest interceptions thrown (2, 2nd nationally), fewest turnovers (5, 3rd), scoring (39.6/game, 9th), passing efficiency (162.68, 11th) and fewest tackles for loss allowed (4.56/game, 26th).

» The Seminoles are one of 12 teams nationally to have a receiver and a rusher with a three-touchdown game this season. Keon Coleman caught a career-high three scores vs. No. 5 LSU, and Trey Benson tied his single-game careerhigh with three rushing scores vs. Southern Miss. Coleman is one of 27 receivers nationally with a three-touchdown game this year, and Benson is one of 64 players with three rushing scores in a game.

» Florida State’s defense has faced 50 plays inside their 10-yard line this season and allowed just 12 touchdowns. In the 45-24 win over No. 5 LSU, the Seminoles faced 10 snaps inside their own 5-yard line and allowed only two scores. On LSU’s first drive of the game, the Tigers had six plays inside the five-yard line, including four snaps from the 1-yard line, and the FSU defense forced a turnover on downs with a 13-yard sack on 4th-and-1. During FSU’s three-game homestand the defense faced only 10 total snaps inside its 10-yard line and allowed one touchdown. Syracuse did not have a snap inside the 10-yard line and took only one snap inside FSU’s 15-yard line. » Mike Norvell is 21-5 (.808) in November as a head coach, including 9-3 (.750) at home


Odds/lines are subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.