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One-third of the season is in the books and the national landscape in the race for the final four-team College Football Playoff is continuing to take shape.
While we’re still over a month away from the first edition of the 2023 College Football Playoff Rankings debuting (Tuesday, Oct. 31 at 7 p.m.), arguments and resumes are being formed as teams jockey for position in the AP Top 25 and USA Today Coaches Poll to solidify their brand perception before the committee hits the conference table.
There are plenty of factors that go towards slotting a team — eye test, talent, season success — but today, we’re going to focus on wins.
Who has the most impressive wins so far in 2023? With four weeks that have lacked major matchups (outside of last week’s packed slate), there have been four pretty clear tiers of schedule success this season.
Before we dive in, some other quick perspectives:
Week 4 Most Deserving Rankings
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) September 25, 2023
We’re a third of the way through the regular season. Résumés are really starting to take shape!https://t.co/49eXnoxL0H pic.twitter.com/NLaMWj36RC
Introducing the Quadrant System Top 25
— CFBudge (@CF_Budge) September 26, 2023
The ranking might look a little wack, but that's because it is based entirely on resume.
It is a re-ranking of the current AP Top 25 using only the Quadrant system, full explanation below. pic.twitter.com/CnUklnFYeL
Tier 1: Actually, sincerely impressive
Florida State Seminoles
AP Rank: No. 5
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 29th
Wins: LSU, Southern Miss, Boston College, Clemson
The two Tiger takedowns are arguably the best two wins in the country, with FSU covering the spread in both games (and then some, against LSU) and leaving a terrifying September with a 4-0 record.
Washington State Cougars
AP Rank: No. 17
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 51st
Wins: Colorado State, Wisconsin, North Colorado, Oregon State
Utah Utes
AP Rank: No. 10
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 17th
Wins: Florida, Baylor, Weber State, UCLA
Uh, did the Pac-12 replace the SEC as the top conference this season? It would be poetic, given the imminent demise of the soon-to-be Pac-2, but really, you could make the argument for either one of these teams as having the best duo of wins so far this season. Both have a non-conference win over a major opponent (with Utah’s win over Florida gaining more clout after the Gators upset the Tennessee Volunteers) and Washington State just took down Oregon State in a top-25 battle of the Pac-2 Pals.
Ohio State Buckeyes
AP Rank: No. 4
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 53rd
Wins: Indiana, Youngstown State, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame
Ohio State’s win over Notre Dame was exactly the sort of game that has seen the Buckeyes have been run into the ground as of late, so overcoming that hump in a grit-your-teeth situation in a wild road environment could easily stand up as one of the best wins this year — but we’re talking multiple wins, not one, and the rest of Ohio State’s schedule has been a snoozer.
Texas Longhorns
AP Rank: No. 3
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 41st
Wins: Rice, Alabama, Wyoming, Baylor
Like the Buckeyes, the strength of a singular win almost shoots Texas into the top spot, but Rice, Baylor and Wyoming isn’t enough to propel them up there. That Texas win over Alabama was — and still is — impressive, but just how good is Alabama this year? Are the Crimson Tide still figuring it out and prepping to fully launch the Murderball Mobile come October, or will the luster of this win start to shine off as the season wears on?
Tier 2: Win over a ranked opponent
Missouri Tigers
AP Rank: No. 23
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 59th
Wins: South Dakota, MTSU, Kansas State, Memphis
You could make the argument to put Mizzou up in tier one, if you really wanted. Memphis is an AAC squad, but that’s still a big non-conference win and taking down then-No. 15 Kansas State is impressive in its own right.
Duke Blue Devils
AP Rank: No. 17
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 85th
Duke’s takedown of Clemson to start the season set the tone for the ACC in 2023, with its matchup in a few weeks against Florida State suddenly looking like it could be a preview of the conference championship game. Northwestern is a Power 5 non-conference win, technically.
Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Rank: No. 6
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 72nd
Wins: West Virginia, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa
West Virginia isn’t exactly a juggernaut but a Power 5 non-conference win counts all the same, and dominating a ranked conference opponent (even if it’s Iowa) deserves props.
Miami Hurricanes
AP Rank: No. 18
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 70th
Wins: Miami (OH), Texas A&M, Bethune, Temple
Texas A&M hasn’t totally imploded on itself, so the Hurricanes’ 48-33 win over the Aggies still has some hype attached to it. If Miami adds a win over North Carolina to its resume in a few weeks, the likelihood of two FSU-Miami matchups in 2023 is starting to look a bit more likely.
Oregon Ducks
AP Rank: No. 9
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 99th
Wins: Portland State, Texas Tech, Hawai’i, Colorado
Colorado may not be worthy of the 24/7 media coverage surrounding the squad, but earning a 42-6 win over them earns Oregon points as well as a non-conference win over the Red Raiders.
Tier 3: Non-conference win(s)
North Carolina Tar Heels
AP Rank: No. 15
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 77th
Wins: South Carolina, Appalachian State, Minnesota, Pitt
If South Carolina, Minnesota or Pitt were good, whew would that be one heck of a resume. Instead, it’s just pretty good, which is a tradeoff that Mack Brown and Drake Maye will make for being 4-0 on the last weekend of September.
Washington Huskies
AP Rank: No. 7
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 94th
Wins: Boise State, Tulsa, Michigan State, Cal
Boise State isn’t quite the plucky upstart that it used to be, Cal is Cal and Michigan State is its own story, but wins count all the same, and name-brand-wise, that’s a pretty good three.
Tier 4: At least you got a conference game in
Kansas Jayhawks
AP Rank: No. 24
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 96th
Wins: Missouri State, Illinois, Nevada, BYU
Oklahoma Sooners
AP Rank: No. 14
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 98th
Wins: Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati
Michigan Wolverines
AP Rank: No. 2
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 118th
Wins: East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers
Georgia Bulldogs
AP Rank: No. 1
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 108th
Wins: UT Martin, Ball State, South Carolina, UAB
USC Trojans
AP Rank: No. 8
SP+ strength of schedule to date: 127th
Wins: San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State
Okay real talk, out of the 20 teams listed above as wins in tier 4, what is the single most impressive win? Is it Kansas over BYU? Oklahoma over Cincinnati? Georgia over South Carolina? Separating any of these resumes requires the finest of nitpicking, but hey, they’re 4-0! What else can you ask for?
Top 15 odds to win national championship, per DraftKings
- Georgia Bulldogs (+220)
- Michigan Wolverines (+500)
- Texas Longhorns (+800)
- Florida State Seminoles (+800)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (+800)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (+1400)
- USC Trojans (+1600)
- Washington Huskies (+1800)
- Oregon Ducks (+2000)
- Oklahoma Sooners (+3000)
- LSU Tigers (+4000)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (+4000)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4500)
- Utah Utes (+6000)
- Miami Hurricanes (+7000)
Full AP Top 25 Poll: Week 4
- Georgia Bulldogs (55)
- Michigan Wolverines (1)
- Texas Longhorns (2)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (1)
- Florida State Seminoles (3)
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Washington Huskies (1)
- USC Trojans
- Oregon Ducks
- Utah Utes
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- LSU Tigers
- Oklahoma Sooners
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- Washington State Cougars
- Duke Blue Devils
- Miami Hurricanes
- Oregon State Beavers
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Florida Gators
- Missouri Tigers
- Kansas Jayhawks
- Fresno State Bulldogs
Full USA Today Coaches Poll: Week 4
- Georgia Bulldogs (61)
- Michigan Wolverines
- Ohio State Buckeyes (2)
- Florida State Seminoles
- Texas Longhorns
- USC Trojans
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Washington Huskies (1)
- Oregon Ducks
- Utah Utes
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- LSU Tigers
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Oklahoma Sooners
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- Duke Blue Devils
- Washington State Cougars
- Miami Hurricanes
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Oregon State Beavers
- Missouri Tigers
- Florida Gators
- Kansas Jayhawks
- Kansas State Wildcats
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
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