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Noles News: Vegas puts FSU’s total points vs. Miami over/under at 16.5

Seminoles have averaged 15 points per game this season

By Perry Kostidakis
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Perry Kostidakis has covered FSU football for over a decade, serving as Tomahawk Nation's Managing Editor since 2020

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With Florida State playing for pride and Miami looking to keep its playoff hopes and Cam Ward’s Heisman dreams alive, head coach Mike Norvell knows that this weekend will be carrying plenty of emotion — the question is, can the Seminoles handle it?

For most of the season, Florida State’s offense has not succeeded in the two-minute drills that often occur on Wednesday practices.

Luke Kromenhoek changed the momentum today.

After his first two plays fell incomplete, the freshman stood into on-coming rushers and uncorked a deep throw to Elijah Moore down the sideline for a completion that took the lid off the defense. A few plays later, the two connected down the field again, but this time for a touchdown, the first end-zone trip in this practice drill.

The two true freshmen flashed throughout the morning as the youth movement continued in Tallahassee. Later in practice, they hooked up on third down and in the red zone as their chemistry built.

BJ Gibson and Ja’Khi Douglas also made plays and did their damage in the intermediate area of the field as the quarterbacks pushed the ball down the field.

When passes fell incomplete, it often took place because of the defensive front. Adam Fuller unleashed exotic pressures and numerous looks that confused the offensive front and generated pressure.

However, the best defensive play from practice came from the secondary as Ja’Bril Rawls stripped Moore on a third-down reception that bounced into his teammate’s hands.

The Seminoles turned the music back on today to crank up the emotions ahead of Miami, although Norvell mentioned focusing on not letting them get out of hand.

“(Yesterday) allowed us to push certain situations today. I like where we are through the week. We’re making sure that we’re in control of all things, intensity, and mindset...It’s going to be very intense and emotional come Saturday night, so we need to make sure that we can handle ourselves with discipline and focus.”

“(Yesterday) allowed us to push certain situations today. I like where we are through the week. We’re making sure that we’re in control of all things, intensity, and mindset...It’s going to be very intense and emotional come Saturday night, so we need to make sure that we can handle ourselves with discipline and focus.”

In a series so close in overall record (Miami leads 35-33 all-time), it’s a bit of a shock to look at the results between FSU and Miami and realize that more often than not, it’s one team riding a win streak — FSU is currently on a three-game win streak, one that broke a four-game Hurricanes streak. Before that started in 2017, the Seminoles won seven straight from 2009 to 2016.

The last time one program failed to win at least two consecutive games in the series was 2007-2008-2009—before that? 1993-1994. There have been 14 streaks of two wins or longer in the series, the longest of which is FSU’s 7 (pulled off both in the aforementioned timeframe and from 1963-1972).

In case you haven’t noticed, Florida State's offense has been one of the worst in the country this season — both in the visual test and the data sets. Currently, FSU’s points per game (15) ranks 132 out of 134 teams, as well as its yards per rush (2.54) and third down conversion percentage (26.8%). Its yards per play ranks 127th (4.5), per game 132nd (276) and its yard per pass (6.2) ranks 122nd. FanDuel, which currently lists the Seminoles as 20.5-point underdogs, has FSU’s total points scored at over/under 16.5.

Jordan Silversmith took a look at the FSU offensive coaches and their performances so far this season:

FSU vs. Miami, point spreads since 1997

via Odds Shark

  • Nov. 11, 2023: FSU 27, Miami 20 (FSU -14.5)
  • Nov. 5, 2022: FSU 45, Miami 3 (FSU -6.5)
  • Nov. 13, 2021: FSU 31, Miami 28 (Miami -2.5)
  • Sep. 26, 2020: Miami 52, FSU 10 (Miami -12.0)
  • Nov. 2, 2019: Miami 27, FSU 10 (FSU -3.0)
  • Oct. 6, 2018: Miami 28, FSU 27 (Miami -14.0)
  • Oct. 7, 2017: Miami 24, FSU 20 (Miami -2.5)
  • Oct. 8, 2016: FSU 20, Miami 19 (Miami -1.5)
  • Oct. 10, 2015: FSU 29, Miami 24 (FSU -6.5)
  • Nov. 15, 2014: FSU 30, Miami 26 (FSU -2.0)
  • Nov. 2, 2013: FSU 41, Miami 14 (FSU -21.5)
  • Oct. 20, 2012: FSU 33, Miami 20 (FSU -21.0)
  • Nov. 12, 2011: FSU 23, Miami 19 (FSU -12.5)
  • Oct. 9, 2010: FSU 45, Miami 17 (Miami -5.5)
  • Sep. 7, 2009: Miami 38, FSU 34 (FSU -6.0)
  • Oct. 4, 2008: FSU 41, Miami 39 (Miami -1.0)
  • Oct. 20, 2007: Miami 37, FSU 29 (FSU -5.0)
  • Sep. 4, 2006: FSU 13, Miami 10 (Miami -4.0)
  • Sep. 5, 2005: FSU 10, Miami 7 (FSU -3.5)
  • Sep. 10, 2004: Miami 16, FSU 10 (Miami -1.0)
  • Oct. 11, 2003: Miami 22, FSU 14 (FSU -7.0)
  • Oct. 12, 2002: Miami 28, FSU 27 (Miami -13.5)
  • Oct. 13, 2001: Miami 49, FSU 27 (Miami -7.0)
  • Oct. 7, 2000: Miami 27, FSU 24 (FSU -6.0)
  • Oct. 9, 1999: FSU 31, Miami 21 (FSU -14.0)
  • Oct. 10, 1998: FSU 26, Miami 14 (FSU -9.5)
  • Oct. 4, 1997: FSU 47, Miami 0 (FSU -21.0)

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Basketball season is almost here — and Matt Minnick and Michael Rogner are back with another episode of the Gospel of Ham, breaking down the FSU men’s basketball roster and schedule as part of the duo’s preview series:

Meanwhile, No. 19 Florida State women’s basketball is already inching closer to its season, getting a taste of action in an exhibition win over Tampa, 91-46 at the Donald L. Tucker Center on Wednesday:

Ta’Niya Latson led the Seminoles in scoring with 26 points, shooting 9-of-16 from the field and a perfect 7-of-7 from the free throw line.

The defense grabbed 43 rebounds, led by Makayla Timpson, who registered a double-double behind 21 points and 11 rebounds. Timpson and Malea Williams had eight of the 10 blocks, swatting four each. Williams added nine rebounds.

The Seminoles generated 21 steals, as O’Mariah Gordon and Raiane Dos Santos led the team with five each. Latson also took away four. Gordon was the third FSU player to score in double figures, tallying 14 points.

In the opening quarter, the Seminoles jumped out to an eight-point advantage, 28-20, before holding the Spartans to two points in the second quarter. FSU ended the half on a 24-2 run, taking the 52-22 lead.

FSU outscored Tampa 23-10 in the third and put the game away, 91-46.

The Seminoles will be back at the Tucker Center on Wednesday, Oct. 30, at 6 p.m. to host West Florida. Admission is free.

Florida State baseball’s 2025 schedule was announced on Wednesday, which features 20 home games against teams that made the NCAA Tournament and nine games against three fellow CWS teams:

Eight opponents earned an NCAA Tournament berth in 2024, with all eight teams, and 20 of 22 of those games, coming in Tallahassee.

As head coach Link Jarrett begins his third season back at FSU, his team’s 54-game schedule includes 35 home games at Dick Howser Stadium, 18 road games and one neutral-site contest. The team will play 42 total regular-season games in the state of Florida.

Opening Day is at home on February 14, and conference play begins when FSU hosts Boston College (March 14-16). The Seminoles’ 10 ACC series also include a trip to in-state rival Miami (March 20-22) and home games against NCAA Tournament teams Wake Forest (April 4-6) and Virginia (April 17-19) and CWS qualifier North Carolina (May 15-17). Florida State also will travel to Notre Dame (March 28-30), Virginia Tech (April 11-13), Louisville (April 25-27) and league newcomer Cal (May 9-11).

The Seminoles once again will play non-conference rival Florida three times; at home on March 11, in Jacksonville on March 25 and on the road on April 8. Along with UF, who advanced to the College World Series in 2024, NCAA Tournament teams on this year’s schedule include a season-opening series against James Madison (February 14-16), a weekend against Penn (February 21-23) and a midweek affair vs. Stetson (April 22).

The 2025 campaign begins with a three-game series against James Madison from February 14-16. FSU then travels to Tampa on February 18 to face USF before returning home to play Penn from February 21-23. Six of the team’s first seven games are against teams that made the NCAA Regionals in 2024, with JMU making the regional final.

The third week of the season sees the Seminoles at Jacksonville on February 25 and hosting Georgetown from February 28-March 2. That begins a 13-game homestand, which continues vs. North Florida on March 4 and Bethune-Cookman on March 5. The weekend of March 7-9 is a series against Lipscomb, followed by a mid-week game against Florida on March 11.

ACC play commences from March 14-16 when Boston College visits Dick Howser Stadium, and the season-long homestand wraps up with a Tuesday outing against Mercer on March 18.

Four consecutive rivalry games follow, at Miami from March 20-22 and vs. Florida in Jacksonville on March 25. That FSU-UF contest, between two College World Series semifinalists from a year ago, will be held at 121 Financial Ballpark, the Triple-A home of the Miami Marlins.

Florida State then travels to Notre Dame from March 28-30. April begins with a Tuesday outing against Jacksonville (April 1) and a home series against Wake Forest (April 4-6), a team that made regionals in 2024. The Seminoles are then off to Gainesville for the third matchup against Florida, on April 8, and to Virginia Tech from April 11-13.

Nine of the team’s next 12 games are at Dick Howser Stadium, beginning against USF (April 15), Virginia (April 17-19) and Stetson (April 22). UVA and Stetson both are coming off NCAA runs in 2024, as the Cavaliers made it to the College World Series and the Hatters qualified for regionals.

A series at Louisville (April 25-27) follows before a home series against Clemson (May 2-4) and one against Jacksonville (May 6). Clemson is another team that advanced in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, as the Tigers reached a Super Regional.

The regular season wraps up with the team’s first ACC games against Cal, in Berkeley from May 9-11, before the finale against 2024 CWS qualifier North Carolina at home from May 15-17.

Postseason competition commences at the 2025 ACC Baseball Championships from May 20-25, hosted at Durham Bulls Athletic Park in Durham, North Carolina.

NCAA Regionals are scheduled for May 30-June 1 and Super Regionals are from June 6-8, all at campus sites. The College World Series in Omaha, Nebraska, is from June 13-23 at Charles Schwab Field Omaha.

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