Florida State Football

Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 6 Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Can FSU’s defense limit Miami’s Cam Ward and their high-powered offense?

By FrankDNole, NoleThruandThru, Matt Minnick, Jordan Silversmith, Jon Marchant, and Perry Kostidakis Oct 25, 2024, 7:00am EDT

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The Florida State Seminoles (1-6, 1-5) are in South Florida for their annual rivalry game against the 6th-ranked Miami (FL) Hurricanes at the Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. and the game will be televised on ESPN.

Miami (7-0, 3-0) leads the all-time series 35-33, while FSU holds a 21-18 edge in games played at Miami. The Seminoles are 13-7 in the series since Miami joined the ACC before the 2004 season, and have won the last 3 games including a 27-20 win last season. UM’s last victory over FSU came in 2020, a 52-10 win at Hard Rock.

Florida State’s anemic offense is ranked 129th in the nation in total offense, 127th in scoring, 131st in rushing, 83rd in passing, and 73rd in red-zone offense.

The FSU defense is ranked 63rd in total defense, 32nd against the pass, 64th against the run, 33rd in sacks per game, 65th in the FBS in points allowed per game, and a respectable 19th in red zone defense. They are 88th in fewest penalties per game and 126th in turnover margin.

The Hurricanes have an inside track to the ACC title game and should be favored in their remaining games against their unranked opponents. Miami is ranked first in passing in the FBS, 1st in total offense with a 577-yard average, 1st in points per game, 10th in rushing, and 40th in red zone offense.

‘Canes Heisman Trophy candidate Cam Ward is the first Miami quarterback to record seven straight games with 300 passing yards or more. Ward is tied for first in the FBS with 24 touchdowns, and Miami is the nation’s leader in third down conversion rate with 60.2% on offense. WR Xavier Restrepo is 21 yards away from surpassing Michael Irvin for No. 3 in Miami’s all-time receiving yards list.

Miami is ranked 22nd in total defense, 60th in points allowed per game, 66th against the pass, 35th against the run, 35th in red zone defense, and 13th in sacks per game. Miami is also 90th in fewest penalties per game, and 57th in turnover margin.

Miami is looking to start a season 8-0 for the first time since 2017, and they will be wearing their all-black uniforms to celebrate their homecoming game against FSU.

In last year’s game, the 4th-ranked Seminoles scored 17 unanswered points in the second half, and the Seminoles’ defense shut down Miami’s running game after halftime until Jarrion Jones’ interception with less than a minute to go sealed the win for the Noles, 27-20.

According to FanDuel the Seminoles are 20.5-point underdogs against the Hurricanes, with the over/under set at 54.5.

Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
Then look over and digest all the FREE PREGAME CONTENT we’ve posted below.
We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.

NoleThruandThru (5-2)

Free the young WRs! Free the young OL! Free the young DBs! Fully embrace the youth movement! You’re gonna get throttled either way, so play the guys who care and who will have to sit with that taste in their mouths until the 2025 matchup to provide more motivation. FSU fails to hit the 21-point mark yet again with a botched two-point conversion attempt.

Miami 41, FSU 19

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Matt Minnick (2-5, 4-3 ATS)

FSU should have beaten Duke. By post-game win expectancy measures, Duke’s win was the second-least likely win of the week in all of college football. But a three-play meltdown by Brock Glenn and the FSU coaching staff (seriously, why was the play call on the third turnover anything besides a simple handoff to Toa?), combined with massive drops by the receiving corps, enabled the Seminoles to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in true loser fashion.

As long as Mike Norvell seems content to trot out the same players who consistently do things like not make an attempt to tackle a guy who is headed toward a pick-6, why should we expect anything different in terms of outcome?

Miami 41, FSU 13

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Jordan Silversmith (4-3)

Even if you wanted to be an internal optimist and believe that all of the misfortune for Florida State this season and good luck for Miami would be canceled out this weekend, or that Mario would finally lose a game for the Hurricanes this year, or that this is the game to throw out the records, there is one factor that cannot be argued: FSU cannot block UM up front. Miami ranks 9th in the country in total sacks on the season with 24 and 35th with 3.7 yards per rush allowed. Of course, FSU ranks 111th in sacks allowed per game and 131st in yards per rush.

So sure, Miami has given up 34 points or more in three straight games, and Cam Ward usually commits one mistake per game.

This year, it does not matter.

Hopefully, the Seminoles can leave Hard Rock Stadium with their dignity intact, given what happened ten months ago, but do not hold your breath. Saturday night could turn long and ugly.

Miami 41, FSU 17

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Jon Marchant (2-5)

FSU’s defense and special teams were more than good enough to beat Duke last week. In fact, the Blue Devils had a postgame win expectancy of just 36.5% per Bill Connolly of ESPN.

The entire reason they lost was the offense. It’s the worst in the FBS — the only FBS team to not have scored more than 21 points this season. The reason I expect FSU to finish this season with two wins. Unacceptable in every way.

Miami 42, FSU 13

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FrankDNole (1-6)

This is an important rivalry game for me, so I have broken down all this year’s FSU and Miami game film I could get my hands on, then charted All-22 pre-snap formations and motions, performed multiple A.I. virtual simulations, compiled all of the data on spreadsheets, and I have concluded that the Noles could win under the right circumstances.

FSU will beat Miami because the Seminole players will want it more, give more effort than their opponent, and play with more heart than the Miami players.

FSU Seminoles 28, SCUM 26

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Perry Kostidakis (5-2)

From our 2024 preseason roundtable:

What’s one random prediction from the year?

FSU beats Miami in the regular season and the ACC Championship, tying up the all-time series heading into a potential final year of conference play for the two rivals.

Of all the ways I was wrong in my predictions (and man, you are more than welcome to make fun of me as much as you want for being that wrong), my attempt at manifesting not just a double-win year over Miami but also an ACC exit looks as ridiculous as the preseason yapping we’d normally hear from Coral Gables.

Then again, this part turned out to be true — albeit for hilariously different reasons, since a loss to a team of Florida State’s caliber would tank Miami’s ranking potentially beyond repair:

Which game will be more important to the ACC Championship chase — Clemson or Miami?

Miami, but only because by the time that game rolls around, an FSU win could very well eliminate the Hurricanes from contention if they’ve turned a corner in Mario Cristobal’s third year

As I said ahead of the Clemson game, this FSU team defies the rules set forth by “rivalry weirdness” by fielding an offense that would have Paul Johnson foaming at the mouth for a forward pass. While the pure comedy of watching Miami struggle with this Seminoles’ squad might very well make up for a good chunk of the exasperation suffered this season, there’s no chance that Mario Cristobal (who played during the height of the series’ prestige) takes the chance to stomp the Seminoles’ lightly after 2022’s beatdown is likely still fresh in his mind.

Miami 49, FSU 16

Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes: How to watch

Date

Saturday, October 26

Time

7:00 p.m. Eastern

Watch/Stream

ESPN

Listen

Seminoles Radio Network

FSU Broadcast: CH. 371/SXM App

Spread

-20.5, Miami

Over/Under

54.5

Moneyline

Miami -2000, FSU +980

Florida State vs. Miami (FL): Game notes

Florida State is the only team in the ACC and one of two nationally with a kickoff return touchdown in each of the last three seasons. Samuel Singleton Jr. extended FSU’s streak to three straight years with a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown to open the second half at Duke. Last year, Deuce Spann had a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown at home against the Blue Devils, and in 2022, Trey Benson recorded FSU’s first kickoff return touchdown since the 2013 season when he returned the opening kickoff 93 yards for a score against Boston College.
The Seminoles are 1st in the nation with five blocked kicks this season, courtesy of four field goals and one punt block, after blocking one field goal vs. Cal, one at SMU, and two vs. Clemson, and adding a punt block at Duke. Florida State is the only team in the country to block at least one kick in four different games, and its four-game streak with at least one blocked kick is the longest nationally this season. FSU’s 14 blocked kicks under Mike Norvell are tied for 6th nationally and tied for 2nd among P4 conference programs since the start of the 2020 season.
Florida State ranks 1st in the country with a net punting average of 46.34 yards per punt. Alex Mastromanno’s average of 49.4 yards per punt is 1st nationally, and Mastromanno also leads the country in 50+ yard punts with 19. He has by far the most 50-yard punts with one or fewer touchbacks this season, as the next-closest punter has 14.
FSU also leads the ACC and is 18th nationally with an average of 25.0 yards per kickoff return.
Ryan Fitzgerald is the only kicker in the country with four made field goals from at least 52 yards. He is one of four kickers with four 50-yard field goals in 2024 and the third kicker in FSU history with at least four 50-yard field goals in a single season. He’s one of six kickers nationally still perfect on field-goal attempts this season.
Florida State held Duke to 70 passing yards, recording a season-high eight pass breakups, and 180 yards of total offense. The passing yards total was the fewest allowed by an ACC team against a P4 conference opponent this season, and the Seminoles’ pass breakups total was their highest since registering 10 in the 2023 ACC Championship Game victory.
FSU ranks 3rd in the ACC and 27th in the country in red zone defense, holding opponents to a .767 success rate.
Florida State registered 7.0 sacks in the win over Cal, its most in a game since also having 7.0 in the 2023 ACC Championship Game, and the most allowed by the Bears in a game since October 19, 2019. That sack total is also the most by an ACC team against an FBS opponent this season and tied for the 6th-highest single-game sack total nationally in 2024.
Ten Florida State players have made their first collegiate start in 2024. Linebacker Blake Nichelson has started five games, and wide receiver Hykeem Williams has made four consecutive starts. Defensive back K.J. Kirkland has started four of the last five games. Offensive lineman Jaylen Early has started four games this season. Wide receiver Jalen Brown started the first two games of the season. Tight end Landen Thomas and offensive lineman André Otto made their first starts vs. Clemson and both started again at Duke. Linebacker Justin Cryer made his first start at Duke, while tight ends Brian Courtney and Jackson West made their first career starts vs. Memphis.

Odds/lines are subject to change. T&Cs apply. For details, see https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/