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Staff predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. University of Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Will the Noles be able to win their 8th out of the last 12 games played against Miami (FL)?

The Florida State Seminoles will host the University of Miami (FL) Hurricanes at the Florida State University owned, Florida State University operated, and centrally located on the beautiful Florida State University campus, Doak Campbell Stadium, in Tallahassee, on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. The game will be televised on ESPN.

The 3-6 Seminoles are again the underdog this week versus the 5-4 Canes, who are currently holding a 35-30 all time series lead in head to head matchups.

Despite losing to Miami (FL) last year during the Covid shortened season, the Florida State Seminoles have dominated and beaten the Miami (FL) Hurricanes SEVEN times in the last ELEVEN games played.

According to DraftKings, Florida State is presently a 2.5 point home underdog vs. Miami (Fla), with the over/under set at 61 points.

Your Tomahawk Nation staff, as they do every week before a game, have broken down the film, charted every All-22 play-by-play snap, performed A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) virtual simulations of the individual man-to-man matchups [by position], compiled, sorted, and analyzed all of the data, and have come to the conclusion that the Noles could maybe win despite being a 3 point dog this Saturday.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
  • Then look over and digest all of the FREE PREGAME CONTENT we’ve posted below.
  • Please then share your opinions and thoughts how you are feeling about this game in the comments, and a final score prediction, for a chance to win something shiny.


NoleThruandThru (Season prediction record: 7-2):

This game has the makings of a shootout and FSU will live or die by the big play. I fully expect Van Dyke to carve up the FSU linebackers in the short game and wouldn’t be surprised to see Knighton have a huge game. On the flip side, FSU’s running game should eat and the return of Jordan Travis will keep the ‘Noles in the game. I’m really hoping for an exciting environment to impress the recruits in attendance. I just don’t have the confidence that FSU can get it done, but would LOVE to be wrong! FMFFM Forever!

Miami 38, FSU 34


Trey Rowland (Season prediction record: 4-2):

Both teams in this matchup can be exploited by the big play. There are many logical reasons to think this will be a high-scoring affair. In fact, there are many logical reasons to think this is a high-scoring affair where the visitors from not actually Miami will edge this one out. Logically, the football team falsely claiming the city of Miami has skill players that can do some damage and a quarterback on a hot streak. And, as a man of both sound mind and a keen eye for hard, objective truth, you may find it logical for me to pick the not really Miami stork people to win this game.

I’m quitting logic cold turkey.


FSU wins this game because of whatever uniform combination they happen to choose. They win this game because Mike Norvell had a really good week of media interviews. They win this game because Mike Phillips from Sarasota finally decided to have a bag of Honey BBQ Frito Twists as his pre-game snack, which he hasn’t done since the last time FSU beat Miami.

Pick whatever arbitrary metric of fandom you want, Florida State wins.

I came here to chew bubblegum and chokeslam logic off a steel cage through a flaming wooden folding table....and I’m all out of bubblegum.

Florida State 34, School that actually isn’t in Miami but claims it for weird, undisclosed reasons Hurricanes 31


Brian Pellerin (Season prediction record: 4-5):

I’ve proven to be wrong more often than not on my picks this (and if you think this record is bad, you should check out my betting article lately), so I’ve got great news for Noles fans. I think Miami is going to win. They’ve been playing great lately as Tyler Van Dyke, Jaylan Knighton and the rest of the youth on this team have taken the reins. I still like FSU to be competitive with Jordan Travis back, but I’m concerned there may be some rust that will be enough to cost them.

Miami 36, Florida State 31


FrankDNole (Season prediction record: 3-6):

Although the Florida State Seminoles have beaten Miami (of FL) in 7 of the last 11 games played, that is not enough for the Seminole Nation.

Miami (FL) came into this season with the expectation of finally bringing home a long, long, long, long time coveted ACC title, which they have never won since proclaiming it the ‘All Canes Conference’ when they joined, and the preseason arrogance that they would be one of the CFP teams to play this post season.

Anything less than a win in Tallahassee against the undermanned Noles would be an absolute embarrassment to this relic of a program.

A loss to the Noles, with the talent advantage Miami (FL) has over FSU should be enough to prove that FSU Alum Manny Diaz is doing his best to destroy what is left of the Miami (FL) program, once and for all, and from within.


The Florida State University Seminoles 34 - Manny’s Swan Song 24


Perry Kostidakis (Season prediction record: 6-3)

Yes, rivalries are better when both teams are good, but man oh man are they especially fun when teams are bad. College sports are great, to me, because of the pure hilarity that can arise from them and this matchup offers a plethora of gigglin’ opportunities.

What will be the funniest, however, is FSU taking down a Miami team that has been humbled but not quite yet broken. FSU head coach Mike Norvell is making his debut in the historic rivalry, and he’ll be looking to make a lasting impression. With bowl eligibility a pipe dream at this point, a win in this game is the most realistic chance at creating some more positive momentum for the off-season. With a health Jordan Travis back under center and a defense that’s been sneakily improving each week.

Florida State 36, Coral Gables 23


Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami (FL) Hurricanes:

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation


Game notes via

  • Florida State concludes its 2021 home slate this weekend hosting Miami for Senior Day. FSU will recognize its student-athletes playing their final home game in an on-field ceremony prior to the game.
  • The Seminoles have converted 19 consecutive Red Zone trips for a total of 119 points, the 5th-longest active streak in the country (via ESPN Stats & Info) and the program’s longest Red Zone scoring streak since converting 31 straight across the 2016 and 2017 seasons. FSU was 1-for-1 with a touchdown in the Red Zone against Louisville, 6-for-6 against Syracuse, scoring four touchdowns and two field goals, 3-for-3 at North Carolina with three touchdowns, 6-for-6 against UMass with five touchdowns and one field goal, 1-for-1 at Clemson with a touchdown and 2-for-2 with two touchdowns against North Carolina State.
  • FSU ranks 1st in the ACC and 6th in the country with a 75.9 Red Zone touchdown percentage this season (22-of-29).
  • The Seminoles have rushed for at least 200 yards in six of their first nine games this season and are one of 12 teams with six 200-yard rushing games this year. The last time FSU produced six 200-yard rushing games in a nine-game span was 2012 when the Seminoles rushed for at least 200 yards in six of the first nine games of the season.
  • In the 21 seasons from 1995-2020, Florida State had at least six 200-yard rushing games in a season five times (1995, 2002, 2012, 2013, 2017). FSU posted four 200-yard rushing games in nine contests in 2020 and is averaging 195.1 rushing yards per game in 18 games under Mike Norvell.
  • FSU’s season average of 5.13 yards per rush is 3rd in the ACC and 25th nationally, and its 190.3 rushing yards per game are 5th in the ACC.
  • Florida State has produced a 100-yard rusher in six of its first nine games of 2021, one of only four teams in the country to have at least six different games with a 100-yard rusher and six 200-yard rushing games as a team this year. Running back Jashaun Corbin has four 100-yard games, the 4th-highest total in the ACC, and quarterback Jordan Travis has two 100-yard games, 3rd among ACC quarterbacks and 8th-most overall in the conference.
  • Florida State is tied for 9th in the country with six plays of at least 60 yards this season and tied for 12th with three plays of at least 70 yards. FSU’s three rushing plays of at least 60 yards and two rushing plays of at least 70 yards both rank 1st in the ACC and tied for 4th nationally, while its four rushing plays of at least 50 yards are tied for 3rd in the conference and 8th in the nation.
  • The Seminoles rank 2nd in the ACC and 3rd nationally in 4th-down defense with opponents converting only 23.1 percent (3-of-13) this season. FSU has stopped eight consecutive 4th-down attempts, including 0-for-6 in October, the most attempts in the country during the month without allowing a conversion.
  • FSU ranks 2nd in the ACC and 8th nationally in Red Zone defense, allowing a score on 66.7 percent of drives that reach the Red Zone, and held opponents to 6-of-12 (.500) Red Zone conversions in October, the best defensive stop rate in the ACC and 2nd-best defensive stop rate in the country.
  • The Seminoles were flagged for two penalties vs. NC State, the fewest in a game for the Seminoles since 2014 and tied for the 2nd-lowest single-game total by an ACC team this season